On November 10, the October financial data released by the People’s Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the “central bank”) showed that RMB loans increased by 826.2 billion yuan in October, an increase of 136.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
In terms of sectors, household loans increased by 464.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 42.6 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 422.1 billion yuan; corporate (institution) loans increased by 310.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 28.8 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans An increase of 219 billion yuan, an increase of 116 billion yuan in bill financing, and an increase of 58.3 billion yuan in loans from non-banking financial institutions.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in October, new RMB loans amounted to 826.2 billion yuan, an increase of 136.4 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the increase slightly exceeded market expectations. The total amount of loans has improved, but the structure is still not ideal. The year-on-year increase is mainly due to bill financing. From the perspective of the household sector, the scale of new residents’ medium- and long-term loans remained relatively stable, but the proportion of residents’ medium- and long-term loans in all new loans rose to 51.1%, a new high since October last year, indicating that the mortgage loan policy has been adjusted recently. Promote the steady development of the real estate market.
“Considering that most of the medium and long-term credits in the household sector are related to real estate loans, the housing finance policy has continued to tighten in the past period, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has continued to fall, causing some real estate companies to face greater liquidity repayment pressure. A certain panic.” Ma Hong, a senior researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that in October, the improvement in the medium and long-term credit indicators of the household sector partially reflected the central bank’s attitude towards marginal easing of short-term housing credit policies. , That is, “maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers” mentioned in the third quarterly regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank.
In terms of increase in social financing, according to preliminary statistics, the increase in social financing in October was 1.59 trillion yuan, 197 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and 721.9 billion yuan more than the same period in 2019.
Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 775.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.9 billion; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by RMB 3.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 17.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase A reduction of 100 million yuan; a decrease of 106.1 billion yuan in trust loans, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6 billion yuan; a decrease of 88.6 billion yuan in undiscounted bank acceptance bills, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3 billion yuan; net corporate bond financing of 200.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3 billion The net financing of government bonds was 616.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.6 billion yuan; the domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises was 84.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1 billion yuan.
Wen Bin believes that the scale of social financing increased by 10% year-on-year, the same as in September. New social financing was 1.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 197 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase was mainly contributed by on-balance sheet loans and government bonds.
At the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 233.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and 1.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 62.61 trillion yuan, year-on-year An increase of 2.8%, the growth rate was 0.9 and 6.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 8.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. Net cash returned in the month was 78.1 billion yuan.
“M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations.” Wen Bin said that comprehensively considering various factors, the main reasons for the rebound of M2 are: First, the base number fell in the same period last year. M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous value, with a lower base; second, the ability to derive credit was strengthened. In October this year, new RMB loans increased by 136.4 billion yuan over the same period last year, enhancing the ability to create money. However, under the influence of the traditional tax payment month and the acceleration of government bond issuance, new fiscal deposits in October were 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 205 billion yuan over the same period last year, resulting in increased currency withdrawal, which is not conducive to the recovery of M2. . In addition, M1 increased by 2.8% in October, 0.9 percentage points lower than in September, continuing the downward trend since the beginning of this year, reflecting the weak business activities of enterprises.
Wen Bin believes that, on the whole, the growth of credit and social financing stabilized in October, and the increase was slightly higher than expected, reflecting the increased financial support for the real economy. However, from a structural point of view, the increase in medium and long-term loans to enterprises is not satisfactory. Although the issuance of government bonds has accelerated, it still falls short of market expectations. Recently, the prices of energy and raw materials have continued to rise, which has impacted some small and medium-sized enterprises. The continued decline in M1 and the changes in the credit structure have also confirmed the weak business operation and the decline in demand for the real economy, and the pressure on economic growth has increased. In the next stage, macroeconomic policies should continue to make cross-cyclical adjustments and increase efforts to boost domestic demand. Monetary policy will continue to increase support for the real economy, improve foresight and autonomy, and respond to the Fed’s monetary policy shift. Strengthen structural policies, make good use of newly introduced carbon emission reduction support tools, promote loan scale growth and structural optimization, increase effective investment, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range.
(Editor in charge: Wang Qingyu)
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