Home » In the first quarter, the CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies to make timely efforts

In the first quarter, the CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies to make timely efforts

by admin

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 11, the year-on-year increase in CPI in March fell, which was weaker than market expectations; the PPI was flat month-on-month, showing a tendency to stabilize. In addition, in the first quarter, the average CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and the PPI fell by 1.6% year-on-year. According to expert analysis, prices remained stable in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for overall price stability throughout the year.

Core CPI picks up moderately

The data showed that the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in March, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in February. Among them, food prices rose by 2.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in February.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the year-on-year increase in CPI in March fell at a low level, mainly due to the rapid decline in vegetable prices that month, the decline in international crude oil prices, and the impact of domestic automobile price cuts and promotions.

The data shows that the price of fresh vegetables fell by 11.1% year-on-year in March, and the decline was 7.3 percentage points higher than that in February; the prices of gasoline and diesel fell by 6.6% and 7.3% year-on-year respectively; the price of fuel-fueled cars fell by 4.5% year-on-year.

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI fell by 0.3%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in February. Among them, the price of pork fell by 4.2% month-on-month. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the price of pork was mainly affected by the relatively abundant inventory and the decline in consumer demand.

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In March, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over February. Wen Bin, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank, said that core inflation has stabilized and is expected to continue to rise moderately, but it will not replicate the rapid rise in core inflation in Europe and the United States. The overall inflationary pressure will not be too high this year, and there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies to exert force in a timely manner.

PPI chain stabilized

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year in March, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from February. Dong Lijuan said that this was mainly due to the increase in the comparison base of industries such as petroleum, coal, and steel in the same period last year.

From a month-on-month perspective, PPI continued to remain flat. Among them, the price of means of production turned flat from an increase of 0.1% last month; the price of means of living turned flat from a decrease of 0.3% last month.

According to Wen Bin’s analysis, the month-on-month stabilization of PPI reflects the support of domestic demand. The prices of the middle reaches of the means of production and the means of living have stabilized at the same time, and the profit expectations of the middle and lower reaches of the enterprises are expected to improve marginally.

Domestic production and market demand continued to improve, and key projects were accelerated. The prices of steel, cement and other industries rose month-on-month. Among them, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and cement manufacturing both increased by 1.3% month-on-month.

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Looking forward to April, Wang Qing believes that the month-on-month PPI growth is expected to resume in April, but the high base factor will continue to drag down the year-on-year performance.

Stable price operation has a solid foundation

On average from January to March, the CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year. Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said in an interview that from the perspective of the CPI operation in the first quarter of this year, food is an important factor in stabilizing the CPI operation, thanks to the stable production of some fresh agricultural products and the promotion of the connection between production and sales The measures have been solidly implemented, and the food industry has shown a seasonal trend of steady decline.

Looking ahead, there is a solid foundation for stable prices. The National Development and Reform Commission has previously made it clear that it will coordinate the work of increasing employment and income, and strengthen the supply and price stability of key commodities; the National Energy Administration requires that it will do its best to ensure the supply and price stability of natural gas this year to ensure the needs of people’s livelihood.

This year’s government work report puts forward a target of about 3% increase in consumer prices. Wen Bin believes that my country’s supply-side operating rate and production capacity have increased, and there is limited room for rising labor costs in the service industry. In addition, my country has a high margin of safety in terms of food and energy, and it is difficult for non-core inflation to form a large pressure. This year, the overall inflation will most likely be controlled within the 3% policy target.

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“Looking forward to the whole year, my country’s industrial and agricultural products and services are in sufficient supply, the connection between production and sales is smooth, the market order is good, and the overall economic recovery will gradually appear in prices. It is expected that the overall level of prices will generally operate within a reasonable range.” Guo Liyan said.

Disclaimer: The Securities Times strives for truthful and accurate information, and the content mentioned in the article is for reference only and does not constitute substantive investment advice, so operate at your own risk

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