ROMA – Decline of 1.5% in March in industrial production, after partial rebound registered in February (+ 1.9%). In the first quarter of 2022, therefore, the Study Center Confindustria estimates a decrease in industrial production of -2.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, which will negatively affect the dynamics of GDP.
Orders in volume decreased in March by -0.8% on February, when they were down by -0.1% on January: very negative data for the outlook for the production from April.
Second Study Center Confindustria, after the intense fall recorded in January (-3.4%), the partial recovery in February “is mainly due to a basic statistical rebound effect”. The break out of the conflictwe read in the survey, has accentuated since the end of February the incidence of factors that hindered Italian economic and production activity, even before the war (increases in raw material prices, scarcity of materials).
The result, therefore, is a net worsening of the economic situation which is confirmed by the decline in business confidence recorded in March, to 105.4 from 107.9 in February, and in the decline in manufacturing PMI (to 55.8 from 58.3 in February. last month). To this is added a significant decrease in the judgments and in the production expectations of manufacturing enterprisesthe value of which has not touched such low levels since June last year.
A Def of war. Draghi: “Dramatic picture, we will do everything necessary”
by Serenella Mattera
In the first quarter of 2022, Confindustria continues, the expectations on the operating conditions of companies identified by the Bank of Italy survey for the following quarter deteriorated markedly, recording a balance between positive and negative reviews which from 10% (fourth quarter 2021) fell to -32.8%.
A share of 47% of companies considers the probability of an improvement in economic prospects in the second quarter of 2022 to be zero. To this is added the sharp deterioration in the opinions on the conditions for investing (to -49.1% from + 6.7% of 4 Quarter 2021).
The specter of recession appears in the government accounts
by Valentina Conte
A survey conducted among companies associated with Confindustria highlights that 9 out of 10 companies in the sample consider as very important, among the main obstacles caused by the conflict, not only the increases in the cost of energy, but also those of other raw materials, while supply difficulties they concern almost 8 out of 10 companies.
Faced with these problems, 16.4% of companies have already significantly reduced production. The worsening of the economic policy uncertainty index, which for Italy rose to 139.1 in March from 119.7 in February (+ 38.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021), increases the risks of a heavy impact on the Italian productive fabric and a significant weakening of the economy in the first half of 2022.