Original title: Inflation divergence increased: May pig prices fell by 23.8% year-on-year, lowering CPI, and PPI rushed past the “9” to speed up catching up?
The price of upstream raw materials has been risingCPIConduction, but still in the initial stage of pressure, in the long run,PPIThe conduction will gradually get a rigid release, and the increase in CPI will be more obvious.
On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released May CPI and PPI data. Data show that the CPI in May rose by 1.3% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month. Among them, live pig production continued to recover, pork supply continued to increase, and prices fell 11% month-on-month in May. In May, the PPI rose 9% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the purchase price of industrial producers rose 12.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month. Both set new highs since 2009.
Although China has begun to stabilize the prices of bulk commodities in May, some black series prices have also seen a significant correction. However, energy raw materials such as oil and gas, whose growth rate has slowed down, accelerated again in May, which in turn led to the emergence of prices in a number of bulk commodity categories. Jump. The interviewed experts believe that the expansion of the scissors gap between production and living materials in the PPI indicates that it is difficult for the price increase to be transmitted to the terminal. Such a rapid increase in commodity prices lacks continuous support. The PPI may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the third quarter and slightly in the fourth quarter. Fall back.
As the CPI is still relatively stable, the upstream and downstream structure of PPI is clearly differentiated, and the economic recovery is unbalanced.currencyPolicy tightening cannot solve this structural imbalance. In the future, policies need to pay more attention to helping mid- and downstream companies to relieve their difficulties.
On the same day that the data was released, the National Development and Reform Commission also held a work symposium, proposing to closely follow the price trend of bulk commodities and do a good job in price forecasting and early warning.
CPI rose moderately year-on-year
Consumer prices were generally stable in May. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2021, national consumer prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 2.4 percentage points since the beginning of the year. The overall trend is moderate.
Among them, food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, and non-food prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year. Specifically, the most obvious impact on the CPI in food is still the price of pork. Pork prices in May fell by 23.8% year-on-year, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.5%.
Everbright BankFinancial MarketsAnalystIn an interview with a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald, Zhou Maohua pointed out that the year-on-year increase in CPI has expanded for three consecutive months, mainly due to the pick-up of domestic demand. Residents’ demand for non-essential goods has increased significantly. Higher animal prices offset the year-on-year decline in food prices; at the same time, last year The low price base is also the reason for the “rapid” increase in consumer prices in recent months. However, the 1.3% increase is still not as expected, mainly due to two factors. One is that the price of pigs has fallen sharply due to the centralized listing of pigs by pig farmers in recent times; the second is the weakening of fruit and vegetable prices.
As of the end of April this year, the number of reproductive sows in the country has returned to 97.6% of the normal year. The relevant parties predict that the number of pigs for slaughter in the second half of this year is expected to return to the normal level.
Zhou Maohua believes thatThe downside of pork prices is expected to be limited. The main reason is that pig farming has lost money. At the same time, the price of corn and other feeds continues to rise, and farmers and sellers are less willing to cut prices.In addition, with the gradual increase in pork consumption demand, it is expected to play a stable support role for pork prices. Pork prices may rebound to a certain extent before and after holidays in the second half of the year. However, considering that the domestic hog price gap has narrowed, seasonal factors have limited disturbances, and market expectations are stable, hog prices will remain fluctuating within a narrow range.
Looking forward to the next stage,Bank of CommunicationsTang Jianwei, the chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that it is expected that the CPI and PPI will continue to increase in June, and the CPI may be close to 2%. With the decline of the tail-raising factors and the slowdown in the price increase of primary products, the PPI growth rate in the third quarter is expected to stabilize and fall back. The tail-lifting factor has dropped significantly and the price of pork is at a low level. The rise in CPI will remain moderate and is expected to remain at about 2%.
Big hurricane, PPI exceeded expectations and broke 9
When interpreting the PPI data, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician from the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that out of the 9% year-on-year increase, the carryover impact of last year’s price changes was about 3.0 percentage points, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was about 6.0 percentage points, an increase of 1.7 percentage points.
Member of the Academic Committee of China International Economic Exchange Center,Centaline BankChief economist Wang Jun pointed out in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that the PPI broke 9 in May and exceeded market expectations.“Previously, it was generally expected that it might break 8. The reason why the PPI was significantly higher than expected was that in May iron ore,Non-ferrous metalsIn addition to the continuous record highs of other categories, a more important variable is that energy raw materials such as oil and gas, whose growth rate has slowed down, have accelerated again, which has led to a strong increase in commodity prices in almost the entire industry chain. “
Commodities experienced a surge across the board in May, and the price increase increased compared with the previous month.Medium oilAnd the price of natural gas extraction industry increased by 99.1%, an increase of 13.3 percentage points; the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 38.1%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points; the price of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 34.3%, an increase of 10.5 percentage points;Non-ferrous metalsThe price of smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 30.4%, an increase of 3.5%; the price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 29.7%, an increase of 16.4%; the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry rose by 20.9%, an increase of 3.4%.
In Wang Jun’s view,Domestic supply and price stabilization may have an immediate effect in black areas such as coal, steel, and rebar. However, China’sNon-ferrous metalsOther international commodities have very little pricing power, and the latter’s prices are mainly determined by fluctuations in the international market, rather than domestic regulation.
Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the probability that PPI will continue to rise in June is expected to be too high, and the possibility of breaking 10% cannot be ruled out. “First, international commodity prices are still at a high level, such as international principles.Oil priceThe rate is still rising, and imported inflationary pressures have strengthened new price increases. Second, the carry-over effect of last year’s price changes is expected to be around 2.5% in June, which is still the second highest level this year. “
From a medium to long-term perspective, Wu Chaoming pointed out that the prolonged global commodity demand recovery cycle and limited supply capacity determine that this round of commodity cycle will last longer and imported inflation pressure will continue for a period of time. The PPI may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the third quarter. butConsidering that the recovery of domestic demand continues to be slower than supply, the domestic industrial chain is relatively long, and the RMB exchange rate flexibility has increased, which can partially hedge the imported inflation pressure, coupled with the rapid reduction of tail-lifting factors, it is expected that the PPI will fall slightly in the fourth quarter.
Wang Jun believes that as crude oil re-enters the ranks of rising, the PPI in the third quarter may form a high platform, and it is difficult to see a peak-type rapid fall. He emphasized that the price increase of the means of production in May was significantly greater than that of the means of living, indicating that the transmission of the price increase of primary products from the production end to the end consumption was relatively slow. “If there is no response from the end demand, it is difficult for the inflation in the upstream industry to maintain such a rising slope. Coupled with the regulation of domestic policies, it is only a matter of time before the peak is reached.”
PPI’s transmission of pressure to CPI is beginning to appear
It is worth noting that the “scissors gap” between CPI and PPI further widened, reaching a historical high of 7.7 percentage points.
In an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, Bai Ming, deputy director and researcher of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believed that:The price increase of upstream raw materials has been transmitted to the CPI, but it is still in the initial stage of pressure. In the long run, the transmission of PPI will gradually be rigidly released, and the increase in CPI will be more pronounced.
Will rising inflation affect monetary policy? Zhou Maohua said that the May inflation data has limited impact on the current prudent monetary policy because domestic inflation is structural. At the same time, judging from the year-on-year PPI and CPI year-on-year differentiation, the current upstream price increase is still not obvious to the terminal consumer price. The market is more consistent with expectations for the next trend of inflation “touching high and falling”.
Zhou Maohua pointed out that high PPI may have two effects on domestic industries. On the one hand, it helps boost the profits of industrial enterprises as a whole, but it also squeezes the profits of some downstream manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, the prices of energy and raw materials deviate from the fundamentals for a long time. Excessive rises may send “wrong” signals to some industries, leading to excess capacity expansion in a few industries.
Bai Ming pointed out that in the future, we should focus on the pressure of imported price increases, and beware of excessive inflation. For example, to reduce the pressure of cost transfer, enterprises to make more profit, reduce the output of some industrial products, etc., through the reduction of the urgency of the demand for bulk raw materials, to fight for the pricing power; secondly, the upstream must stabilize prices and strengthen price monitoring. Avoid disorderly price increases and prevent excessive financialization of key industries and products; in addition, relevant regulatory authorities can take this opportunity to focus the pressure on price increases to some areas that should increase, and provide social security, especially for low-income groups. The satisfaction of daily necessities.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in the recent past, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have held intensive meetings and issued relevant policy documents on maintaining supply and stabilizing prices.
On June 8, the National Development and Reform Commission held a national video conference to comprehensively deploy the work of ensuring the supply and price stabilization of important livelihood commodities, and proposed to actively do a good job in the regulation of the bulk commodity market. On June 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a work symposium, and proposed to closely follow the price trend of bulk commodities, do a good job in price forecasting and early warning, further understand the operation of relevant market entities, find out clues to illegal price increases, and cooperate with relevant departments to further strengthen the period. Linked supervision of the spot market, standardizes price behavior, and maintains the normal order of the market.
In response to the continuous decline in pig prices, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration of Market Supervision, jointly issued the “Improving the Government’s Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices.” In the two situations of decline and excessive rise, the critical value of early warning indicators shall be reasonably determined, and a three-level early warning interval shall be established.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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