As the core of the information industry, semiconductor chips have an increasingly important strategic significance in international competition.
“In recent years, my country’s integrated circuit industry has developed rapidly, and emerging industries represented by artificial intelligence, intelligent manufacturing, automotive electronics Internet of Things, and 5G are rapidly rising.” On August 18, at the 2022 World Semiconductor Conference and Nanjing International Semiconductor When delivering a speech at the expo, Yu Xiekang, vice chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, pointed out.
Yu Xiekang also said that since the introduction of a series of favorable policies such as the national major science and technology projects and the national integrated circuit industry development promotion outline, it has greatly promoted the leap-forward development of my country’s integrated circuit industry, and promoted the gradual advancement of social private capital to the integrated circuit industry. The development of my country’s integrated circuit industry has achieved relatively positive results.
However, as Moore’s Law faces extreme challenges, semiconductor technology may face a new turning point. “The past 60 years have been the era of integrated circuits, and the next 60 years will be the era of integrated systems.” At the conference, Mao Junfa, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of Shenzhen University, pointed out that in the future, semiconductor technology will move from circuit integration to a new development path of system integration, which will It provides a historical opportunity for the development of lane changing and overtaking in my country.
The turning point of the industry is approaching
In recent years, my country’s integrated circuit industry is developing rapidly.
According to statistics released by the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the domestic integrated circuit industry continues to grow rapidly and steadily over the past few years, and the total industry revenue will exceed RMB 1,045.83 billion for the first time in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the sales of the design industry was 451.9 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year; the sales of the manufacturing industry was 317.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%; the sales of the packaging and testing industry was 276.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year.
Yu Xiekang said that the scale of my country’s integrated circuit industry has grown year by year, breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time last year. Among them, some core technologies have made breakthroughs, and the strength of key enterprises has also increased. A number of large-scale chain production enterprises supporting the healthy development of the industrial chain in chip design, chip manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment and materials have gradually emerged.
However, Yu Xiekang also mentioned that my country’s integrated circuit industry still has the phenomenon of low quality, “reflected in the relatively backward technology of China’s integrated circuit research and development, the lack of independent innovation ability and research and innovation technology, and the lack of core technology patents and market share. There is still a big gap between the high and technological level and the international advanced level.”
In addition to the low quality, from an industry perspective, the semiconductor industry presents a strong cyclicality, and judging from the latest figures, an inflection point may have come, which also poses a challenge to entrants in the industry.
According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) report, the global semiconductor industry sales in June 2022 were US$50.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Overall, global semiconductor sales growth continued to slow in June, the first time since February 2021 that the growth rate was below 15%. From January to April this year, the growth rates of global semiconductor sales were 26.8%, 32.4%, 23.0%, and 21.1%, respectively, showing a slowing trend overall.
“Every colleague in our industry has deeply felt the deep imprint brought by the cycle.” Ma Weiqing, vice president of China Resources Microelectronics Co., Ltd., said, “Although semiconductor sales are still growing in June this year, shipments The month-on-month decline is an inflection point worthy of our vigilance and attention. Next, the industry may enter a new adjustment period, with both volume and price falling.”
Looking for opportunities in China
Facing the current development status of the domestic industry, Yu Xiekang said that my country’s integrated circuit industry should continue to create opportunities for cooperation with the global semiconductor industry.
He believes that it is necessary to adhere to the implementation of policies and the optimization of the business environment. He suggested that the government should continue to increase the strength of major science and technology projects, and support the technological innovation system of the entire industry chain and the technological system of the industry. “Factually speaking, with the support of the first three major science and technology projects in the five-year plan, a basic ecological system has been formed. (Next step) we should vigorously cultivate leading companies in various segments of integrated circuits, promote the agglomeration of the industrial chain, and regulate the industrial market. Various supporting policies for the order can be put in place.” Yu Xiekang pointed out.
At the same time, Yu Xiekang believes that my country should adhere to the combination of external cooperation and independent research. On the one hand, it should strengthen the research and development of high-end integrated circuit chips, high-end equipment, materials and design processes. ) The semiconductor manufacturing capacity of each link in the global distribution, capture the subdivision links of the weaker local industry chain, and continuously improve the overall level of China’s semiconductor industry through the sharing of technology and the market.
In addition, Yu Xiekang said that my country should adhere to the market application system as the development direction, avoid demanding domestic chips in the most critical application scenarios, give more opportunities for domestic chips, and establish a certain fault-tolerant mechanism, in order to cultivate advanced technology and technology, Domestic chips with more reliable quality and performance.
Ma Weiqing believes that with the change of product application structure, semiconductor application transformation is imperative, and the automotive market segment is the core track of power semiconductor IDM. “Foreign manufacturers rely on their leading products and high-end applications to maintain good growth and leading scale. For domestic power device-related companies, whoever first promotes market application upgrades and product optimization, and who has more resources, will grow better. Last year, we focused on air conditioners and low-speed electric vehicle products for vehicles, and we expect to focus on body and new energy vehicles from 2022 to 2024, striving to achieve breakthroughs in safety and power systems in 2025.”
From integrated circuits to integrated systems
From the perspective of long-term industrial development, integrated circuits still have new room for imagination.
Mao Junfa pointed out that the current development direction of the integrated circuit industry includes the continuation of Moore’s Law (More Moore) and the detour of Moore’s Law (More than Moore). Chiplets, heterogeneous, integrated systems, etc.
In this regard, Mao Junfa judged that the past 60 years have been the era of integrated circuits (ICs), and the next 60 years will be the era of integrated systems (ISs). “Integrated circuits are just a means, and systems are the goal.”
He said that the integrated system carries out integrated design and production from a system perspective, integrating various chips, sensors, components, antennas, interconnects, etc. on a substrate to form a system with expected functions. All chips and components are in the The structure forms a whole, which makes the system high density, miniaturization, strong function, low power consumption, low cost, high reliability, easy design and easy production. This idea can further improve the design efficiency and comprehensive performance of the system, reduce the cost of the system, increase its reliability, and reduce the requirements for chip design and equipment.
In Mao Junfa’s view, the integration level and working speed of the current integrated system are constantly improving. At the same time, it also faces three major challenges: multi-physics control, multi-performance collaboration, and multi-material fusion. “Considering all factors, the number of chips and components that can be integrated in an electronic system also doubles every once in a while, just like Moore’s era.”