ING: The U.S. dollar gave up last week’s gains and entered the consolidation trend analysis of the U.S. dollar, the euro and the British pound

Original title: The Netherlands International Group: The U.S. dollar gave up last week’s gains and entered the consolidation of the U.S. dollar,EUR、GBPTrend analysis

FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News released on Thursday showed that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States decreased last week, but it was still higher than market expectations. Most Fed officials also focused on the labor market and said they need to wait for employment. The monetary policy will be changed only by further substantial improvement, and the dollar is expected to consolidate for a period of time before it will move upward.

The following are some analysis of the following currencies on this trading day (June 25):

USD:

It is reported that some progress has been made in the U.S. Infrastructure Act (the Senate panel reached a $559 billion bipartisan agreement), coupled with the good results of the U.S. banking industry stress test, the U.S. market was boosted yesterday. Impressively, the 23 banks that the Federal Reserve conducted stress tests showed that with a 4% GDP contraction and a 55% share price drop, the CET1 capital ratio is still twice the minimum capital requirement.

The market has generally expected that the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator) inflation data will increase significantly in May. It is expected that the overall PCE will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, and the core PCE will increase by 3.4% year-on-year. Therefore, unexpected surprises may prompt the Fed to reduce and tighten the currency ahead of schedule. The policy threshold may be high.Unless the PCE data is unexpected, it is expectedDollar indexIt will continue to consolidate and may return to the 91.50 area.

EUR:

Unlike the growing number of emerging market countries who believe that they need to deal with the surge in summer inflation, the European Central Bank seems very satisfied with its current position that it will not rush to implement tightening policies. This is why the euro, yen and Swiss franc are the top choices this summer. Financing currency. If the European Central Bank admits that the economy has recovered further in September, this situation may change, but the euro is currently underperforming in cross trading.

Although this week’s euro zone confidence indicators were unexpectedly strong, indicating that the euro/dollar may rise slightly to the 1.198-1.1990 area in the next few days, the current environment should see the euro/dollar continue to consolidate.

RussiarubleContinued to be supported by hawkish central banks and high oil prices performed well, however, the core ruble longs may decrease in the next few days. Russia’s low vaccination rate makes it possible to face a new wave of epidemics. If OPEC+ agrees to increase the supply of crude oil by more than 500,000 barrels per day, the OPEC+ meeting on July 1 will pose an event risk to the oil market.

GBP:

The pound was hit by the Bank of England yesterday and performed poorly because it was not as hawkish as traders expected. In fact, the Bank of England is not particularly dovish, but it seems that the market has already expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the summer of 2022. The 5 sharp rises in the short pound contract in December indicate that this is indeed the case. It is expected that the EUR/GBP will continue to trade in the low volatility range of 0.8535-0.8600, while the GBP/USD range is approximately 1.3890-1.4010.