In the week ended September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.65%. How will the A-share market go? See what the agency has to say:
①CITIC Securities: The bottom feature of A shares highlights that the time to enter the market is approaching
CITIC Securities said that the current market bottom features are manifested in a highly consistent prudent attitude, continued sluggish transactions, and more reasonable valuations; in October, policies and economic expectations have gradually become clear, the impact of rapid exchange rate depreciation has ended, and active funds on the market have completed hedging and falling. Warehouse, OTC bottom-hunting funds began to enter the market, it is expected that the market will usher in the starting point of the monthly level repair market. First of all, from the perspective of the characteristics of the bottom, investors’ cautious attitude has been highly consistent. “Let’s see next year” has become a general consensus. The current market enthusiasm has cooled to the lowest level since September 2020. The overall valuation has long-term attractiveness. Some industries Dynamic valuations are close to end-2018 levels. Secondly, from the point of view of the entry time, it is expected that the third quarter will be the end of this round of economic downturn, and the fourth quarter will gradually improve. The Fed’s interest rate hike panic has reached its peak, and it is expected that measures to curb inflation through non-monetary means will be more discussed. Finally, from the perspective of incremental liquidity, active private placements have fallen below the median of the past five years, and transaction congestion has become healthier. Pre-holiday hedging funds may return after exchange rate fluctuation worries ease, while OTC bottom-hunting funds are gradually Admission. It is expected that there will be a window for adding positions in October, adhere to a balanced allocation, and actively deploy valuation switching and business inflection points.
②Huaan Securities: This round of growth market has not completely ended, and the follow-up can still be expected
Huaan Securities said that the popular track in the early stage has been greatly adjusted, and the valuation has been digested by both adjustment and prosperity. The current valuation-performance combination already has a very advantageous medium-term configuration cost-effectiveness, and a gradual layout can be considered. A pick-up in growth may have to wait for external rate hike expectations to ease. Then, based on the medium-term perspective, under the support of the relative advantages in performance, the tightening of monetary policy, and the high support of industrial policies, this round of growth market has not completely ended, and the follow-up can still be expected. Under the significant adjustment in the early stage, there is now an opportunity for gradual configuration. It is recommended to pay more attention to the growth hot tracks of new energy chain wind and solar storage, new energy vehicle chain upstream material equipment and midstream manufacturing, UHV/new power grid equipment, etc.
③ CITIC Construction Investment: Investors with limited market downside should consider waiting for opportunities
Analysts such as Chen Guo, a strategy of CITIC Construction Investment, believe that there are not many new negative factors at present, and the degree is weaker than that at the end of April. From the perspective of the drawdown ratio and the number of days of adjustment, it has approached or exceeded the level of the previous rounds, and the drawdown is sufficient. . CITIC Construction Investment believes that the market downside is limited, and investors should consider waiting for opportunities. The market is gradually digesting the pessimistic expectations of fundamentals, the price-performance ratio of the market position is rising, and domestic policies continue to release positive signals. The major stock indexes around the world all rose slightly during the holidays, which is conducive to the improvement of A-share risk appetite. Investors are advised to maintain strategic optimism, wait for opportunities, and make a balanced allocation based on the expected positive direction of the third quarterly report: 1) The growth direction is preferred for the next year, and the profit expectations are still good for wind/storage/light/military industries; 2) The cycle direction is optimistic about power/oil transportation/ Breeding/coal; 3) Real estate consumption is preferred for real estate/liquor faucet.
④Galaxy Securities: Strategically deploy high-end manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, liquor and other high-prosperity sectors
China Galaxy Securities said that the market fluctuated downward in September. At present, investors’ confidence is low and their mood fluctuates greatly. In the case of continuous decline in September, the adjustment at the index level has come to an end, and October has the basis for a gradual stabilization. October will enter the third quarterly report disclosure period, and it is recommended to make a proper layout at a low level at the end of the adjustment. Investor strategies should focus on the core development strength of the industry, and choose low-priced stocks with stable and good performance in small and medium-sized market capitalization + policy benefit themes. In July and August, the agency suggested that the process of the A-share differentiation period will be further accelerated. In October, it was suggested to strategically deploy high-end manufacturing, new energy vehicle industry chain, liquor and other high-prosperity sectors.