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Original title:[收盘评论]INE market on August 24: International oil prices rebounded from oversold, crude oil market sentiment reversal Source: Wenhua Finance
After seven consecutive declines, international oil prices rebounded sharply yesterday. The rise of WTI crude oil was evident in Masukura, and a single-day reversal recovered the decline of nearly three trading days. On Tuesday, the main SC crude oil contract surged 5.39% to close at 422.6 yuan, the main high-sulfur fuel oil contract surged 4.99% to close at 2,460 yuan, and the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract rose sharply by 5.02% to close at 3266 yuan.AsphaltThe main contract went up by 2.33% and closed at 3072 yuan. The rise of the main LPG contract was relatively unobvious.
Multiple factors resonate, supporting oil prices to counterattack vigorously. On the macro level, as the US FDA officially granted Pfizer and BioNtech new crown vaccines to all the population, optimism in the US financial market once heated up, the global commodity market rebounded as a whole, and the macro atmosphere stabilized. Coupled with the influence of rumors that the Federal Reserve may delay Taper, the US dollar index fell sharply from a 9-month high yesterday, and market risk appetite rebounded, which indirectly stimulated crude oil to rise. This week the market will focus on the new liquidity expectations guidelines in the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
Mexico’s offshore oil platform reduced production due to fire, and this sudden factor has become a fuel-supporting agent for short-term increases in oil prices. At the same time, the epidemic situation in China has been gradually brought under control, related control measures have been gradually relaxed, and concerns on the demand side have begun to ease. According to data from the Golden Ten, a document issued by the Mexican National Petroleum Corporation on Monday showed that due to the inability to re-inject natural gas into the oil field, the company’s offshore oil platform caught fire, resulting in a decrease of 444,000 barrels of oil per day. An explosion occurred on the E-Ku-A2 platform of the National Petroleum Corporation of Mexico on Sunday, killing at least one person and five missing. Mexican Petroleum said the fire was under control a few hours later. The documents show that crude oil production dropped from 719,000 barrels per day before the accident to nearly 275,000 barrels per day on Monday morning. It is unclear whether PEMEX can recover at least part of the lost production. SDIC Essence Futures is expected to recover sooner and will have limited real impact on oil prices.
The basis for the current decline in oil prices is not solid. Huatai Futures said that the main reason for the recent decline was the tightening of China’s and the United States’ macroeconomic and monetary policies, which have basically been in price. From the perspective of crude oil’s own fundamentals, although the spot market is weak, inventories are still in a pattern of destocking and refinery profits Unaffected, the current fundamental situation has not undergone a fundamental reversal, and OPEC may adjust its production policy according to market conditions. There is limited room for oil price adjustments, and the pace of adjustment is coming to an end. In the future, the focus of the market will be on OPEC monthly meetings and China’s crude oil imports. The distribution of quotas.
Crude oil experienced an oversold rebound after a sustained decline. The pressure on the cost side of the remaining varieties of the domestic crude oil system has eased, generally following the upward movement of oil prices. Everbright Futures believes that the fundamentals of fuel oil itself are still strong. Saudi Arabia imported nearly 100,000 tons of high sulphur from Singapore last week, supporting the further strengthening of the monthly gap and spot discounts for Singapore’s high-sulphur paper cargo. Although it is currently in the peak season of high-sulfur demand and high LNG prices have further supported the demand for high-sulfur alternative power generation, this strength will be more reflected in the recent contracts rather than the current main contract. FU2201 and LU2111 will more closely follow the fluctuation of crude oil prices.
Asphalt’s growth lags behind that of fuel, which is mainly constrained by the current weak fundamentals. According to Longzhong Information, the average domestic asphalt price was 3126 yuan/ton yesterday, and the price was reduced by 47 yuan/ton or 1.48% from the previous month. Sinopec’s main refinery prices have been lowered by RMB 50-100/ton. Judging from the start-up situation, the domestic asphalt market has a certain increase in the start-up load in August. The refinery has not been disturbed by the raw material factor for the time being. With the decline of international crude oil prices, the production cost of the refinery has dropped to a certain extent, and the overall cost side is driven by Due to the weakening, the refinery’s enthusiasm for actively releasing contracts has increased. Considering the current high refinery inventory, the future refinery is expected to reduce prices to drive the destocking. Although the market is optimistic about future demand expectations, the current actual demand is still mainly negative. Rain and the epidemic have led to slow project construction progress, and there is no good support in terms of funding. In the later period, it is expected that the construction demand in the northern region is expected to gradually pick up, but the recovery in the southern region is still limited.
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