Test also accounts for Intesa Sanpaolo. The largest Italian bank are preparing to feed investors the accounts of the third quarter of 2021 after last week Unicredit opened the dance among the banks in Piazza Affari surprising positively with a quarterly profit of over one billion.
The accounts will arrive mid-session tomorrow and the CEO Carlo Messina the usual conference call with analysts will be held at 3 pm Italian time. Together with the accounts for the 3rd quarter, tomorrow’s board of directors is called upon to approve the interim dividend for 2022. The largest Italian bank is planning a further distribution of 1.4 billion to be paid, in the form of interim dividend, on November 24, 2021 (with coupon detachment on 11/22).
The new Intesa plan is expected in February, but the CEO Messina could already give some advance indications on the objectives.
What consensus expects in the 3rd quarter
Analysts expect confirmation of the positive trend in commission income which, together with a drop in loan loss provisions, should offset the weak interest margin. The Bloomberg consensus indicates for the 3rd quarter a net profit of 810.5 million (range 667-961 million), revenues of 4.89 billion (range 4.85-4.93 billion), interest margin of 1.99 billions.
For the full year, the net profit estimate is 4.44 billion. On 4 August, in the margins of the accounts for the 2nd quarter, the CEO Messina stated that the target of 4 billion profit for 2021 “is very conservative”.
UBS believes that Intesa’s Q3 profit will be supported by fees, costs, loan loss provisions. The Swiss business house points out that there is room for a better shareholder remuneration policy on the occasion of the new business plan and that would allow the bank to regain a relative advantage.
Banca Akros analysts, who recently downgraded Intesa Sanpaolo’s rating from accumulated to neutral, do not expect these results to be a driving factor for the stock. “After two very strong quarters, we expect a normalization of profitability for Intesa Sanpaolo in the third quarter, with a net profit of 780 million euros, not comparable with either the third quarter of 2020 or the second quarter of 2021 which recorded tax benefits for 460 million for some intangible assets ā, remarks Akros.
No sell on the stock and room to grow again after + 37% YTD
The Intesa stock continues to be well regarded by analysts in general. The Bloomberg consensus sees 64.5% of analysts say buy, the remaining 35.5% hold and no sell. The average target price indicated is ā¬ 2.75, which is almost 10% above current levels. Since the beginning of the year, Intesa has recorded + 37%, substantially in line with the + 38% of the Stoxx 600 Banks Index.