Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures
Research report text
【Spot goods】
PB powder in Qingdao port increased by 2 yuan/ton to 918 yuan/ton, and super special powder was 798 yuan/ton.
【basis】
The current port PB powder warehouse receipt cost and super special powder warehouse receipt cost are 992.6 yuan/ton and 990.4 yuan/ton respectively. The basis and basis rate of super special powder night market is 78.9 yuan/ton and 7.97%.
【need】
The average daily output of molten iron on the demand side is 2,600 tons to 2,343,600 tons. In the fifth week after the holiday, the steel mills replenished their warehouses slightly, with the average daily port removal volume +0.8% month-on-month, the imported ore inventory +1.27% month-on-month, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio +0.43%. Crude steel output in December was 77.89 million tons, an increase of 3.346 million tons (+4%) from the previous month, and a decrease of 8.303 million tons (-10%) year-on-year; the annual crude steel output was 1.013 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.788 million tons (-1.9%) . In December, the output of pig iron was 69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.014 million tons (1.5%) and a year-on-year decrease of 3.095 million tons (-4.3%); the annual pig iron output was 864 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.738 million tons (-0.5%).
【supply】
iron oreThe pattern of loose stone supply has not changed. In terms of mainstream mines, the four major mines have released quarterly production and sales reports one after another. Except for Vale, the quarterly output of the other three mines all increased month-on-month. In terms of annual (natural year) output, Vale’s annual output (including pellets) decreased by 5.206 million tons (-1.5%) year-on-year to 340 million tons, while Rio Tinto (including pellets and fine powder) increased by 5.42 million tons year-on-year tons (+1.6%) to 342 million tons, BHP Billiton rose 779,000 tons (+0.3%) to 285 million tons, and Fortescue fell 10.9 million tons (-4.6%) to 226 million tons.
In terms of non-mainstream mines, the output of Australian Mineral Resources Ltd, Mount Gibson Iron Ltd, and Canadian mining company Champion Iron increased by 13%, 9.8% and 3.6% respectively in the fourth quarter. The total import of iron ore in December was 90.859 million tons, a decrease of 7.991 million tons month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 4.789 million tons; the cumulative import volume in December was 110,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.456 million tons.
【in stock】
Port inventory was 140.0056 million tons, compared with -740,100 tons on Tuesday, and -2.227 million tons from last Thursday; steel mills imported ore stocks were +115.84 from the previous month.
【View】
The macro is not as good as expected, and market sentiment has weakened, but the fundamentals of supply reduction and demand growth have not changed. Fundamentally, supply has declined seasonally, demand is affected by environmental protection and production restrictions in the short term, and steel mills have low inventory levels.
In terms of supply, the volume of arrivals to Hong Kong this week has increased month-on-month, with an average value close to the level of the same period last year; the shipment of Macau and Pakistan has increased month-on-month, with an average value higher than that of the same period last year.
The daily average molten iron on the demand side has risen slightly, which is in line with the expectation of steel mills to resume production. In the fifth week after the holiday, the steel mills replenished their warehouses slightly, with the average daily port removal volume +0.8% month-on-month, the imported ore inventory +1.27% month-on-month, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio +0.43%.
Under the pattern of supply reduction and demand increase, the low inventory level of steel mills has a supporting effect on ore prices. Steel mills have slightly replenished their warehouses, and port inventories have been slightly destocked. In terms of operation, 5-9 sets are held.
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