Financial Associated Press, November 13 (Editor Yao Hui)The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: A-share comprehensive repair market has been established, it is recommended to increase the balanced allocation of positions
The direction of the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, the expected turning point of external liquidity, and the improvement of geopolitical disturbances have all been clarified, and the fundamentals, valuation and risk appetite have been improved respectively. In the first half of the drive, the focus of trading is expected to switch from the game of policy expectations to the game of policy effects. It is recommended to improve the balanced allocation of positions, and it is recommended to focus on the three main lines of precise prevention and control, real estate industry chain, and global liquidity inflection points where policy benefits are more obvious. The three major factors that have been clarified are as follows: First, the trend that the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy is beneficial to the economy has been clarified. The implementation of the “New Twenty Regulations” marks the scientific and precise principle of the epidemic prevention policy and the trend of gradual relaxation. The number of personnel may be halved, the impact on the economy will be significantly reduced, the transmission of policies to stabilize growth will be improved, and fundamental expectations will be improved. Second, the inflection point of external liquidity expectations has emerged, the U.S. inflation inflection point is relatively clear, the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes has slowed, U.S. stocks have rebounded in stages, the inflection point of the U.S. dollar index has emerged, the depreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate has basically ended, and the valuation of A-shares has been restored. space. Third, the mid-term elections in the United States have landed, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown signs of easing. During the G20 summit, bilateral leaders such as China, the United States, China and France have met, and the marginal improvement of geo-disturbance has also been clarified.
The core of the strategy under the comprehensive repair market is to improve the balanced allocation of positions. At present, it is recommended to focus on the varieties that will benefit significantly after the implementation of the policy, which includes the following three main lines: ① Beneficial sectors under the precise prevention and control of the epidemic, focusing on vaccines and specific drugs related to the new crown , consumer medical equipment, pharmaceutical distribution and other sub-sectors; ② The accelerated landing of the “second arrow” in real estate boosted market expectations, focusing on high-quality real estate developers, building materials, home appliances in the real estate industry chain, and pre-assessment High-quality banks with suppressed value; ③ The global liquidity inflection point is expected to appear, focusing on Hong Kong stocks (Internet, innovative drugs) and precious metals.
Huaan Securities: The opportunity for a positive resonance rebound has come
With the optimization of the 20 measures for epidemic prevention and control, the adjustment of real estate financing policies, and the decline of the US CPI, the market’s concerns about the epidemic’s disruption to domestic economic growth and the Fed’s continuous fast-paced interest rate hikes have significantly eased, significantly boosting market risk appetite. The sentiment is improving together, and the market is expected to usher in a rare rebound window. We believe that, with the positive signals released at home and abroad recently, the capital market is expected to maintain a positive trend before the Central Economic Work Conference in early December and the U.S. announcement of the unemployment rate and CPI in November.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended to grasp the current sectors that are more boosted by favorable market factors for allocation: First, benefit from the risk mitigation of the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the new energy track with medium and long-term industry performance still has advantages, including photovoltaic wind power, energy storage, etc. The second is the real estate sector that directly benefits from the further relaxation of control policies. The third is to benefit from the optimization of epidemic prevention policies to boost growth expectations, and the corresponding consumption recovery sectors, including medical equipment, liquor, etc. The fourth is the securities business sector boosted by market sentiment.
CITIC Construction Investment: The bottom of the strategy confirms the structure of sports warfare
The bottom of the strategy is confirmed, and the favorable logic continues to be realized. A number of economic data indicate that it is still in a passive destocking period, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the risk of repeated epidemics and fluctuations in fundamental data. Under the environment of uncertain economic expectations and abundant remaining liquidity, the market’s interpretation and sentiment of policy signals have been amplified in the past of the third quarterly report. In the short term, we will focus on the valuation repair of the real estate chain, and in the medium term, we will still focus on growth clues, and we should prefer new energy, medicine, and technological innovation: High prosperity prefers wind/light/storage that still has high performance growth expectations in 23 years, and is expected to take the lead in focusing on fundamentals. Improved medical devices/retail pharmacies/innovative medicines and some leading traditional Chinese medicines appeared, with emphasis on semiconductor equipment/materials, innovation, and military industries under the theme of safety.
Huaxi Securities: Restorative market slowly unfolds during the year
The optimization of the epidemic prevention policy and the fall of the US dollar index helped the structural market to continue. In the early stage, we clearly stated that “the probability of A shares being in the bottom range is extremely high, and the current position should not be overly pessimistic”, and we still maintain this judgment. There have been positive changes in both internal and external factors that have suppressed the market recently: 1) The slowdown in U.S. inflation has pushed the US dollar index down, and global funds have eased their concerns about the tightening of overseas liquidity; 2) The implementation of 20 measures to optimize prevention and control, and the impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy. The disturbance will be further weakened; 3) The policy of “stabilizing growth” will be increased again, and favorable policies for financing in the real estate sector will be introduced intensively. With the improvement of domestic and foreign risk appetite and the improvement of economic growth expectations, A-shares are expected to usher in a window of market recovery.
Specific to industry configuration: 1) Optional consumption areas that benefit from the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, such as “liquor, aviation, catering, tourism and hotels”, etc.; 2) Growth industries with high prosperity, such as “new energy, new energy vehicles” ”, etc.; 3) related to “safety and development”, such as “Xinchuang, traditional Chinese medicine”, etc.
Sinolink Securities: The A-share market may be expected to repeat the reversal level of the market
The A-share market may be expected to repeat the reversal level of the market. 1) First of all, the domestic economy is expected to be at the bottom, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the economic resilience. Moreover, after the apparent rebound of the epidemic in April, the risk of large-scale spread of the domestic epidemic under the normalization of nucleic acid and other measures is controllable. In addition, with the implementation of the 20 major measures to optimize epidemic prevention, the balance between epidemic prevention and economy is in a dynamic optimization stage. 2) Second, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s tightening will gradually ease, and the global stock market may usher in a bull market. The U.S. economy continues to decline, the labor market is falsely prosperous, and labor productivity declines. Wage inflation and rent inflation will gradually ease during the downturn in demand. 3) Finally, policy catalysis cannot be ignored. It is difficult for the market to form a strong consensus, and the follow-up Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference may become key meetings to build consensus. In addition, with the successful convening of the “Twenty National Congress”, the follow-up industrial policy direction is the direction that the market focuses on, and policy catalysis is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the market outlook. The G20 summit, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference may be expected to catalyze a new round of market uptrend.
The short-term layout performance continues to verify the sector, and the mid-term focus on the national industrial policy layout, industrial chain supply chain security and other security development areas are worthy of attention. Growth sectors: photovoltaic energy storage, machinery, communications; consumer sector: food and beverages, auto parts; other sectors: brokerages, gold.
Cinda Securities: Bear-to-bull positions and elasticity are the most important
In our experience, at the bottom of a bear market or top of a bull market, only contrarian investors are likely to seize the best risk-reward ratio to buy and sell opportunities, and most of these investors believe in cycles. The negative factors that have suppressed A-shares in the past year include the epidemic, real estate, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. These factors have all shown positive improvements recently. These improvements at least mean that it may be unreasonable to raise all factors to a long-term grand narrative. There are cycles in policies and the economy itself. When the economy declines for a long enough time, the counter-cyclical nature of policies will likely appear. This kind of change It is possible that the impact on the economy and earnings will be at the annual level, and there is a possibility of a comprehensive valuation repair in the stock market as a whole. The V-shaped reversal that we have been reminding of recently is coming to fruition. If the change in policy during the reversal period is moderate, there is a high probability that the first wave of gains will continue until early 2023. If it is accompanied by a larger-than-expected policy implementation, it may rise to March 2023. During this quarterly reversal, the earnings of listed companies may not improve immediately. The stock market may be the first wave of rising from bears to bulls. Positions are the most important. The focus of allocation is flexibility, valuation and logic repair, not high frequency. Prosperity improved.
Growth oversold and rebounded, and the value will exert force in the future. The annual allocation value of financial real estate is high, and the monthly allocation value is average. The adjustment of liquor is a strong sector in the consumer stock segment to make up for the decline. During the cycle, the marginal changes in the real estate chain may be stronger in the quarter.
Western Securities: The long-term allocation window has opened, and the short-term still needs to face volatility
In the medium term, the bottom of the market is approaching, and the future market center will be more certain. However, for investment, it is necessary to adjust the long-term economic and asset pricing anchors, and the short-term revision of expectations will increase market volatility. With the ebb of sentiment after the sharp revision of overseas liquidity expectations, the implementation of the mid-term elections, and the transmission of alternative asset prices to the United States, overseas markets still face greater risks. From a domestic point of view, after the implementation of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the market will pay more attention to the verification of the policy effect, on the other hand.
From a structural point of view, the disclosure of the third quarterly report has ended, the market has turned to expectations for the economy next year, and the valuation switching of the pharmaceutical, home appliances, food and beverage, financial and real estate industries is gradually unfolding. With the improvement of the level of scientific and precise prevention and control, we will focus on investment opportunities in the offline consumer industry that benefit from the rising flow of people. Under the guidance of long-term policy goals, the agriculture, semiconductor, innovation and military industries, which are closely related to resource and information security, still deserve attention. The subject party suggested focusing on opportunities such as virtual reality and digital currency.
Minsheng Securities: Non-ferrous metals may be the most flexible direction
When all good things happen, non-ferrous metals may be the most flexible direction, and it may also be the field that is least scrambled and gamed by investors. Even if uncertainty cannot be fully ruled out, it may also be an excellent product for some investors to “turn the tide” at the end of the year, which in turn will reinforce the trend. Of course, in the medium and long term, we should pay more attention to the main line of “resources are better than manufacturing, labor is better than capital, physical objects are better than financial assets, and heavy assets are better than light assets”. Maintain the annual level recommendation for the corresponding industries of bulk commodities: non-ferrous (copper, gold, silver, aluminum, molybdenum), oil and bulk commodity transportation, (oil transportation, dry bulk transportation), coal; under the domestic economic recovery, it represents the domestic “core” “Assets” of the CSI 300 will be gradually repaired, focusing on: real estate, large refining and chemical, beer; optimistic about the Metaverse (media-based) in the growth field.
Tianfeng Securities: Dawn has now verified the magnitude and structure of the rebound
In the past week, several long-term factors that led to the sharp correction in the market from September to October have all shown some signs of improvement: U.S. inflation, the epidemic, and real estate. Therefore, it should be a reasonable expectation that the index will repair the decline in September-October.
Whether it can open up further index space depends on whether the market can expect a clearer economic recovery path. Considering the complexity of the epidemic and real estate issues, and considering that the inventory cycle between China and the United States is still at a high level, the state of economic grinding may last for a long time, and the tunnel is still very long.
On the plate, the first sentiment to be repaired is the transition from September to October to perform long-term pessimistic expectations of Hong Kong stocks, big consumption, and big finance. This is also conducive to stabilizing the broader market index, avoiding systemic risks, and taking the market and the economy on the stage. Subsequently, before the path of China‘s economic recovery is clear, the main line of the market is likely to return to the direction of “domestic demand and little relationship with the total economy”, including: big security, sea wind and large storage, industrial Internet, animal insurance, electricity, and medical services.
Haitong Securities: The market is expected to start the second wave of market this year
Historical data shows that A-share funds are positively correlated with market fluctuations. For example, in the rising market from the end of April to early July this year, the incremental funds came from foreign capital and the financing balance increased. With the marginal improvement of factors at home and abroad, the market is expected to start a second wave of market conditions this year, and incremental funds may come from new public offerings, return of foreign capital, and growth in financing balances. The main line of the market is expected to focus on high-prosperity growth areas such as the digital economy and the new energy chain.