ROME. In July, the business confidence climate index improves, reaching the highest value in the entire historical series (the index has been calculated since March 2005). This was announced by Istat, specifying that the consumer confidence index also continues to rise and has recorded a maximum since September 2018. It is estimated that the consumer confidence climate index rose in July from 115.1 to 116.6 , while that of business confidence from 112.8 to 116.3. “Services recorded a marked increase in confidence, significantly exceeding the levels prior to the crisis”.
As far as consumer confidence is concerned, Istat explains that the growth in July “is mainly driven by the marked improvement in assessments both on the general economic situation and on the personal one” while expectations are slightly down. In particular, all components of the consumer confidence index are growing except for the future one: the economic climate goes from 126.9 to 129.6, the personal one rises from 111.1 to 112.2, the current one increases from 108.1 to 111.9; instead the future climate drops from 125.5 to 123.5. As regards companies, on the other hand, an improvement in confidence is estimated in all the sectors surveyed. In construction, services and retail trade, the index increases significantly (from 153.6 to 158.6, from 107.0 to 112.3 and from 107.2 to 111.0 respectively) while the increase is more contained in the manufacturing sector (from 114.8 to 115.7).
With reference to the components of the confidence indices, in the manufacturing industry assessments on orders improve and inventories are judged to be decreasing; expectations on production are slightly down. As far as construction is concerned, all components of the index are improving. In relation to market services, opinions on orders and those on business trends show a clear recovery; expectations on orders are slightly down. In the retail sector, judgments and expectations on sales are improving; the balance of assessments on inventories decreases. Confidence is increasing in both distribution circuits analyzed: in traditional distribution the index goes from 101.7 to 104.6 and in large-scale distribution it rises from 109.0 to 112.8. Finally, Istat notes that on the basis of the quarterly questions presented in the questionnaire of the manufacturing survey, in July the share of manufacturing companies complaining of insufficient facilities or lack of materials as obstacles to production increased markedly.