In November, the business confidence index remained substantially stable, reflecting heterogeneous trends in judgments and expectations among the economic sectors under investigation. The consumer confidence index, on the other hand, recorded a decrease, however remaining at historically high levels. But what is also worrying on the economic front is the increase in infections in Europe, as well as the latest news relating to the Nu variant, the mutation found in South Africa which today caused a real earthquake in the world stock exchanges. An instability that is reflected in the country’s economic growth prospects.
Istat, the demographic crisis is serious: in 2050 the ratio between young and old will be 1 to 3
The governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco explains that «the new increase in infections in Europe and in other countries still moves the post-Covid perspective forward. Unlike last year, societies in the advanced world are less vulnerable today thanks to massive vaccination campaigns that have been successful. Immunization programs need to be pursued decisively and extended to areas that have benefited less. There are two issues: we must hurry and we must do it on a global level, because the definitive overcoming of the pandemic can only take place on a global level “.
The confidence index falls
Among the nine component series, expectations on the country’s economic situation, those on the family’s economic situation and opinions on future savings opportunities worsen. With reference to the judgments, worsening emerged on those relating to the family budget and the current opportunity to purchase durable goods. This was underlined by Istat in commenting on the data released today.
The decline in the consumer confidence index is essentially due to a worsening of expectations on the general economic situation and of those relating to the personal sphere. More specifically, the economic climate and the future climate are significantly worsening (the relative indices fall, respectively, from 142.2 to 139.8 and from 125.4 to 121), while the personal climate records a more contained reduction (from 110 , 4 to 110). Only the current climate is growing, with the index passing from 113.7 to 115.2.
The numbers
For businesses, confidence is estimated to improve in the manufacturing industry (the index increases from 115.1 to 116) and in retail trade (from 105.4 to 106.8). Instead, there is a decline in market services and construction (the index falls, respectively, from 112.1 to 111.3 and from 159.2 to 157.4). As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing all the variables are improving with the exception of assessments on inventories; in the retail trade all variables are marked by optimism. In relation to market services, the opinions on orders and those on business trends are worsening, while a marked increase characterizes expectations on orders. In construction, assessments on orders that are essentially stable are combined with expectations on employment at the company in decline.
The National Consumers Union: worries about the high bills and the cost of living
To weigh, not a little, are the negative data relating to expensive bills and the high cost of living. “In fact, expectations on the economic situation in Italy are collapsing, falling from +40.9 to +21.7”. This was stated in a note by Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union, commenting on the Istat data released today, on the decline in consumer confidence in November. “This is why the Government must urgently intervene by reducing the excise duties on fuels by 20 cents to bring prices back to those of the beginning of the year. As for the € 2 billion put into operation for electricity and gas, at least a doubling of the allocation is needed to have a sting similar to that of the fourth quarter of 2021 », concludes Dona.