MILANO – The Italian economy starts, as expected, still with the minus sign. According to preliminary data released today by Istat, the Pil adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, it recorded a decline of 0.4% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and of 1.4% in trend terms. The foundations for the current year are in any case good and the statistical institute marks for the moment an acquired growth, that is the growth value that would be reached at the end of the year if the next three quarters were equal to zero, of 1, 9%.
“In the first quarter of 2021, the intensity of the trend decline in GDP decreases from 6.6% of the previous quarter to 1.4%”, highlights Istat in its comment on the data. The new contraction, “to a lesser extent” compared to that recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, “was affected, in particular for the tertiary sector, by the economic effects of the measures adopted to combat the health emergency”.
The cyclical variation – explains Istat – is the synthesis of an increase in added value both in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, and in that of industry, while services as a whole have registered a decrease. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component. “The preliminary estimate – specific Istat – has, as usual, a provisional nature and is based on the evaluation of the trend of the supply components which indicates an expansion of agriculture and industrial activity and a contraction of services”.
On the front of the job market “The slight growth in employment recorded in February” continues in March 2021, according to Istat, which has 34,000 more employees than in the previous month (+ 0.2%). Compared to March 2020, the first month of lockdown, however, the account remains decidedly negative: the employed are 565 thousand fewer. A balance that worsens even more if the comparison is made before the pandemic: as of February 2020, the employed are almost 900,000 fewer. Istat confirms that the crisis has hit the least protected hardest: “Employment has decreased for all population groups, but the decline is more marked among temporary employees (-9.4%), the self-employed ( -6.6%) and younger workers (-6.5% among the under 35s) “.
Going back to the monthly data, the growth in employment involves men, temporary employees, the self-employed and almost all ages. The 35-49 year olds are decreasing as well as women and permanent employees. The employment rate rises to 56.6% (+0.1 points) and is 2 points lower than the pre-Covid level.
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Unemployed people are decreasing: the decrease in the number of job seekers (-0.8% compared to February, equal to -19 thousand units) concerns men and the over 25s, while among women and young people aged 15-24 observe an increase. The unemployment rate falls to 10.1% (-0.1 points) and rises among young people to 33.0% (+1.1 points).
In March, compared to the previous month, the number of inactive people also decreased (-0.3%, equal to -40 thousand units) following the decline recorded for both sexes and for the under 35s, which contrasts with the increase observed among people with at least 35 years. The inactivity rate drops to 36.8% (-0.1 points).
Coming to the annual data, Istat points out that the monthly collapses in employment that have gone on since the beginning of the pandemic to last January “have led to a tendential collapse in employment (-2.5% equal to -565 thousand units). decrease involves men and women, employees (-353 thousand) and self-employed (-212 thousand) and all age groups. The employment rate falls, in one year, by 1.1 percentage points “.
Compared to March of last year, people looking for work are strongly increasing (+ 35.4%, equal to + 652 thousand units), due to the exceptional drop in unemployment that characterized the beginning of the health emergency; on the other hand, inactive people between the ages of 15 and 64 decreased (-2.1%, equal to -306 thousand), which in March 2020 had instead recorded extraordinary growth.
Inflation, prices at + 1.1% on an annual basis and + 0.4% monthly
Meanwhile, the rise in prices continues. In April, according to preliminary Istat estimates, inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month, exceeding one percentage point. The national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded + 0.4% on a monthly basis and + 1.1% on an annual basis (from + 0.8% in March ). The acceleration – comments Istat – is due, in comparison with April 2020, the month in which the prices “of energy goods” had undergone a marked decrease “. Inflation net of energy falls to + 0.3% while the inflation acquired for 2021 is + 1.2% for the general index and + 0.6% for the core component.
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