Inflation in “significant reduction” in January. According to preliminary estimates by Istat, in the month the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and of 10.1% on on an annual basis (level not recorded since September 1984), from +11.6% in the previous month. The decrease is mainly due to the annual trend reversal of the prices of regulated energy goods, the tariffs (from +70.2% to -10.9%) and to the slowdown of those of unregulated energy (from +63, 3% to +59.6%), unprocessed food (+9.5% to +8.0%).
The inflation acquired for 2023 (i.e. the average growth that would occur if prices remained stable in the remaining part of the year) is equal to +5.3% for the general index.
The prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services also slowed on an annual basis (from +6.2% to +5.5%). The effects of these trends, Istat still indicates, were only partially offset by the acceleration in the prices of processed food goods (from +14.9% to +15.2%), of non-durable goods (from +6 .1% to +6.8%) and services relating to housing (from +2.1% to +3.2%). Overall, again on an annual basis, in January the prices of goods show a slowing profile (from +17.1% to +14.2%), while that relating to services shows a slight increase (from +4.1% to +4.2%); therefore the negative inflationary differential between the latter and the prices of goods is reduced (from -13.0 in December to -10.0 percentage points).
The increase on a monthly basis of the general index (+0.2%) is mainly due to the prices of housing services (+1.6%), processed food (+1.5%), of durable and non-durable goods (+0.8% for both), of unregulated energy, which includes fuels, (+0.7%); a containment effect instead derives from the drop in the prices of regulated Energy (-24.7%) and those of Services relating to transport (-1.6% due to seasonal factors). Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, rose in January from +5.8% in the previous month to +6.0%, while that excluding energy only remained stable at +6.2% . Furthermore, again based on preliminary estimates, the harmonized index of consumer prices (Ipca) decreased by 1.3% on a monthly basis, due to the start of the winter sales of clothing and footwear of which the Nic index does not take into account, and increases by 10.9% on an annual basis (down from +12.3% in December).
In January, the shopping cart slows down. In fact, the dynamics of the prices of food, home and personal care products are attenuating, registering, on an annual basis, +12.2% from +12.6% in the previous month. On the contrary, that of high-frequency purchase products is accentuated (from +8.5% to +9.0%).