Canadian canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher on Monday, extending Friday’s rally, with the benchmark closing around 2.2% higher. As of the close, the July futures closed up about C$18.60 to close at C$901.10 per ton; the November period closed up about C$19.20 to close at C$889.40 per ton; the January period closed up about C$19.40 per ton. To close at 895.60 Canadian dollars / ton.
Summary of views
The weather improvement in Canada’s main producing areas has helped to improve the yield potential of canola, which has put pressure on the canola crop. Since June, Canadian canola has fallen by nearly 26%. And the financial market is still under the pressure of the US interest rate hike and the expected global economic recession. However, the market has many expectations for the US soybean area report, which supports the meal market. Domestically, the purchase price of rapeseed opened higher this year, which was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, which supported the cost of rapeseed meal.However, rapeseed has entered the market peak, and the output of rapeseed is expected to increase, while the downstream delivery of rapeseed is not active, the inventory is on the rise, and domesticsoybeanShort-term supply is sufficient, and the operating rate of oil plants is acceptable.soybean mealThe inventory continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure of protein meal increased. From the perspective of the disk, the low price of rapeseed meal has rebounded, and the strength remains to be seen.
The weather improvement in Canada’s main producing areas has helped to improve the yield potential of canola, which has put pressure on the canola crop. Since June, Canadian canola has fallen by nearly 26%.At the same time, Indonesia accelerated exports, while MalaysiapalmOil exports have slowed down significantly, and production has recovered, putting pressure on the oil market. In addition, financial markets remain under pressure from U.S. interest rate hikes and expectations of a global recession. However, the market has more expectations for the US soybean area report, and Germany does not expect the G7 to reach an agreement on the temporary cancellation of the mandatory blending requirements of biofuels, worrying to ease the bullish vegetable oil prices. In the domestic market, the demand for rapeseed oil was significantly weaker than the same period in previous years, and the market of domestic rapeseed led to a certain pressure on the price of rapeseed oil. However, this year, the purchase price of new domestic seeds is high, and the operating rate of oil plants remains at the lowest level. The output of rapeseed oil is limited, while the downstream delivery is still acceptable. From the perspective of the disk, the decline of rapeseed oil has slowed down, but it is still in a short trend, so let’s wait and see.
(Article source: Ritar Futures)
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