MILANO – Second drop in January for the Italian industrial production and negative prospects for the economy put to the test by the cost of energy and the conflict in Ukraine. This is what emerges from Istat publications that accentuate the concern expressed by Confindustria and consumers for the stability of the production system.
In its estimate of industrial production, the Institute indicates a 3.4% decline in January compared to December, which is common to all the main sectors of activity. And in the average of the November-January quarter, the level of production decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter.
Istat then specifies that, adjusted for calendar effects, in January 2022 the overall index also drops by 2.6% in trend terms. And he points out that the comparison with the value of February 2020, the month before the start of the health emergency, is negative: compared to then, the seasonally adjusted level of the index is 1.9% lower.
Clouds also on the horizon, which emerge instead from the monthly Note on the trend of the Italian economy: “Estimating the impact of the crisis on the Italian economy is extremely difficult. The evolution of the conflict and the effects of the financial and economic sanctions decided upon from Western countries are characterized by high uncertainty. At the moment, it is possible to assess the impact of the shock on energy prices with respect to a baseline scenario “. the Istat model returns “a downward effect on the level of GDP in 2022 of 0.7 percentage points”.
National Consumers Union and Codacons speak of a “Caporetto” and a “debacle” in the light of the data and warn that the situation will be even worse in the coming months and for this reason they ask for an intervention by the government. “The sharp drop in all indicators relating to production is a worrying signal for our economy. Consumer goods, then, register a real collapse” explains the president of Codacons Carlo Rienzi, according to whom the negative data recorded by the Istat, there is the heavy increase in bills that started in January and the flare up of retail prices, factors that are starting to make their effects felt on the national economy “. All the indicators, according to Rienzi,” highlight the need for urgent action and effective by the Government to save industry, families and businesses from a situation that is no longer sustainable, through measures capable of calming retail prices and leading to a reduction in electricity and gas tariffs “. Massimiliano Dona, president of Unc speaks instead of” a Caporetto for our industries due to the bill effect “and warns that” the consequences will be even worse in the next two months. If you add to this the effect of the war in Ukraine, with ongoing speculations on many, too many raw materials, the picture is disastrous and the estimated growth becomes a mirage “, he says. According to Dona, the data on industrial production also attest to the difficulty of families and the need to restore their spending capacity, curbing the increases in energy goods and changing income policy “.