Reopening and vaccinations give wings to the foot of the recovery of the Eurozone and even more to that of Italy. Within two months, the European Commission adds 0.6% to the gross domestic product of the EU area where the single currency circulates, but the tricolor rise is 0.8%.
The numbers of Italian economic growth with only last 12 May estimated a progression of GDP of 4.2% at the end of 2021 and + 4.4% at the end of 2022, are now updated – as anticipated by La Stampa – to + 5% and + 4.2%. We will lose a little something next year, but the summer economic forecasts of the community executive sanction a better rebound than all expectations. The Italian super-rebound is explained by “the consistent upward revision of GDP in the first quarter and the stronger-than-expected response of economic activity to the easing of mobility and business restrictions”. Real GDP growth gained further momentum in the second quarter and “should strengthen significantly in the second half of the year”.
Italy has therefore responded well, so much so that economic and market operators are wading with renewed optimism. “Public and private investments, supported by the decrease in the uncertainty of businesses on the prospects for demand and on the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, are destined to remain the main driver of growth”. We trust Italy, in essence, despite a “still substantial degree of weakness in the labor market” which does not allow us to fully exploit the potential for growth and on which the Draghi government will have to work.
Italy is the seventh country in the Eurozone for economic rebound in 2021, ahead of Germany (+ 3.7%). Only Ireland (+ 7.2%), Spain (+ 6.2%), France (+ 6%), Slovenia (+ 5.7%) and Malta (+ 5.6%), Belgium (+5.4 %) record better data than the Italian one. In 2022 the tricolor rebound will lose momentum, while that of the other partners will gain strength, with Italy eleventh country out of 19 for growth rates. Compared to when Italy was the black jersey for growth rates, a completely different story.
A national and European success story. “This encouraging forecast is also possible thanks to the right political choices made at the right time,” says Valdis Dombrovskis. The executive vice president for an Economy at the service of the people seems to reward Mario Draghi’s work, but he is also keen to clarify the role played by the EU. “These predictions take into account the great boost that the Recovery Fund will provide to our economies in the coming months.” In acknowledging the merit of the anti-crisis scaffolding conceived in Brussels, it confirms the validity of the national plan that Brussels will begin to finance in the coming weeks.
Economic forecasts for summer, like those for winter, are not complete. They do not contain all the macro-economic indicators. But the gross domestic product is enough for Paolo Gentiloni to send the specific recommendation valid for all: vaccinate. The downside risks “are high but balanced,” says the Commissioner for the Economy, explaining that it depends on the progress of the health crisis and on how to manage it. “We need to redouble our vaccination efforts, building on the impressive progress made in recent months. The spread of the Delta variant is a stark reminder that we have not yet stepped out of the shadow of the pandemic ».