The slowdown in the last quarter of the year does not stop the economic recovery: last year, according to preliminary estimates by Istat, the Italian economy grew by 3.9% with a positive effect on 2023 of 0.4 percent . And despite the -0.1% recorded between October and December. Furthermore, in the last month of the year, compared to November, employed and unemployed increased, while the inactive decreased. A positive sign because it certifies a dynamic economy. Employment therefore grew (+0.2%, equal to +37 thousand) for men, women, permanent employees, the self-employed and for all age groups with the exception of 25-34 year olds, among whom it decreased; temporary employees are also decreasing. The employment rate rises to 60.5% (+0.1 points), while unemployment is stable at 7.8% and youth unemployment drops to 22.1%.
Job
In absolute terms, therefore, the number of employed in December 2022 exceeded that of December 2021 by 1.5% (+334 thousand units). The increase involves men, women and all age groups, with the exception of the 35-49 year olds due to the negative demographic dynamics; the employment rate, which overall is up by 1.1 percentage points, also rises in this age group (+0.7 points) because the decrease in the number of employed people aged 35-49 is less marked than that of the corresponding population overall. However, over 88% of new hires are men. Compared to November there was an increase of 19,000 employed for women and 18,000 for men. However, the female employment rate is increasing and in December it stood at 51.3% with an increase of 0.1 points on November and 0.5 points on December 2021. There are 9,763,000 employed women compared to 13,452. 000 men.
Economic growth
However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP fell by 0.1% compared to the previous three months, but still grew by 1.7% compared to the same period of 2021. Despite the first slowdown after seven consecutive quarters of growth, the acquired change in GDP for 2023, the one that – based on the thrust of 2022 – would be obtained if all the quarters of this year recorded a zero progression, is 0.4%. Not far from the forecast contained in the Nadef developed by the Meloni government at the beginning of November which indicated a 0.6% increase in GDP for this year. On the other hand, in the Nadef the same executive expected a growth of 3.7% for 2022 compared to the 3.9% actually recorded by the National Institute of Statistics. The Istat data, on the other hand, coincides with the assessment provided last night by the International Monetary Fund which, in the update of the World Economic Outlook, precisely set the estimated growth for 2022 at 3.9%, raising the forecasts to +0.6%. for the current year.
salary
Last year, moreover, the intense contractual season led to the implementation of 33 collective agreements and the growth in contractual wages was, on average for the year, equal to +1.1%. Istat notes this, explaining that the gap between the dynamics of prices – measured by the IPCA – and that of contractual wages has risen to 7.6 percentage points, reaching the highest value since 2001, the first year of diffusion of the indicator of prices harmonized at European level (in the past the maximum value was reached in 2012 and was equal to 1.8 percentage points). In detail, the highest trend increases concern the activity of firefighters (+11.7%), ministries (+9.3%) and the National Health Service (+6.1%); no increase for retail, private and public pharmacies and hotels. At the end of December 2022, underlines Istat, the 47 national collective agreements in force for the economic part concern 50.4% of employees – around 6.2 million – and correspond to 51.2% of the total salary. Contracts awaiting renewal at the end of December 2022 fell to 26 and involve around 6.1 million employees, or 49.6%.
The reactions
Consumers criticize: «A negative figure, as far as expected. That the specter of recession was looming was evident after the decline in industrial production in November. The problem is whether the government is able to reverse course immediately» says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumer Union who then continues: «Unfortunately we fear that the maneuver, which is too prudent and not very effective, cannot give the boost to growth that it would serve the country. Each intervention was measured with a scale and was unable to improve the fortunes of industries, workers or families. This way you can’t get out of this stagflation».