After the brilliant growth result in the second quarter (+ 2.7% on the previous one, while we expected + 1.2%) and the good performance of the economic indicators during the summer, the hypothesis that our country could grow at a rate close to or above 6% this year and for once surpassing our main European partners is becoming a reality. This is what emerges from Prometeia’s September 2021 forecast report which explains the “reasons to be optimistic”.
At the moment in Italy about 66% of the population has received two doses of the vaccine, in line with other European countries (65% in France, 63% in Germany, 77% in Spain, 65% in the UK), while the United States (54%), not to mention many Asian countries, are further behind. The fact that Italian household spending grew by 5% in the second quarter of the year over the previous three months signals – in addition to the effectiveness of the fiscal policies implemented to support economic activity and incomes – the renewed climate of confidence in families and businesses. Another reason is that Italian exports and manufacturing hold, demonstrating a great ability to adapt. In the second quarter of the year, Italy was the only major European country to have exceeded the pre-crisis levels of export of goods, with widespread increases in the main destination areas, apart from the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the public finances are doing better than expected. The Economic and Financial Document estimated a deficit of 11.8% and a debt of 159.8% for the current year. Now Prometeia expects a deficit of 9.7% (over two percentage points less of GDP) and a debt of 155.6% (over 4 percentage points less). These are very similar values to those recorded in 2020, despite the expansionary maneuver approved in the emergency decrees being larger (93 billion in 2020, 120 billion in 2021). Incomes are doing well, thanks to the good trend in consumption (VAT) and employment (Irpef and social contributions), but also outgoings are below forecasts (public consumption). “The improved performance of the public finances will facilitate the coverage of the tax reform and social safety nets in progress, which should help support growth in the coming years,” the report reads.