FROM THE ENCOUNTER IN BRUSSELS. The Recovery Fund effect will push Italian GDP to grow by 4.2% this year and to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022 (when it will grow by 4.4%), a few months earlier than the latest forecasts. of February. These are the estimates of the European Commission, which today published the data for all EU countries taking into account the impact of the funds of the Next Generation EU, which sees our country as the main beneficiary in absolute terms. This year’s growth will therefore be perfectly in line with that of the EU average and only slightly lower than that of the Eurozone (4.3%), even if the Italian GDP starts from a decidedly heavier collapse in 2020: -8, 9% according to Brussels, only Spain did worse (-10.8%).
“Vaccinations and the easing of restrictions – write the Brussels technicians – are paving the way for the strong recovery of the Italian economy in the second half of 2021. The investments supported by the EU should lead the economy towards a path of sustained expansion , which should allow production to return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022 ”. However, the support for growth will have a significant impact on the level of the deficit – which this year should fly to 11.7% – and on the debt, which will stop only just below 160% (159.8%). But according to the Commission’s forecasts, the curve should begin to decline as early as next year, when the debt will settle at 156.6% and the debt at 5.8%, also thanks to higher growth.
Of course, alongside the optimism, there are also some warnings: “The prospects (for growth, ed) remain subject to downside risks – the report reads – linked to the pandemic and potential effects on employment and on the solvency of companies”. Employment “should only increase in 2022, when the recovery will take hold”, but “the total hours worked, which fell by 11% in 2020, should recover quickly once the restrictions are relaxed”. For this reason, the unemployment rate will remain around 10% (this year it will rise to 10.2% and then settle at 9.9% the next). Furthermore, “the persistent uncertainty and the concentration of the savings accumulated forcibly among high-income families, with a lower propensity to consume, should slow down the expected recovery in private consumption”.
“After a weak start to the year – explains Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for the Economy – we expect strong growth in both 2021 and 2022. The unprecedented support for budgetary policies has been and remains essential to help European workers and companies to weather the storm. The impact of Next Generation EU will begin to be felt this year and next, but we have a lot of work to do – in Brussels and in the national capitals – to make the most of this historic opportunity. And, of course, it will be essential to maintain the now fast pace of vaccinations in the EU, for the health of our citizens and for our economies. So let’s roll up our sleeves ».