Viewpoint: the latestSMEsAccording to the data, the recovery has begun to slow down, and the downward pressure on the economy is greater. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to rise. The current market structure is dominated by market conditions. In the medium term, if inflation declines and liquidity easing trends are established, the market is still expected to usher in a new trending market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to overall risks, we can focus on individual stocks from the bottom up. In the short term, emergencies haunt the global capital market, and it is difficult for A shares to survive alone. Stay on the sidelines at this stage and pay attention to the continuity of the virus and the specific performance of overseas markets.
Throughout the day, the two cities both opened lower due to the lower sentiment in the global market, but the ChiNext and Shenzhen Component Index quickly turned red after the opening.Shanghai IndexIt was close to turning red in the plate. In the afternoon, the two cities fluctuated and fell back to green, while many stocks fell. From a specific perspective, the national defense industry led the rise, electrical equipment,food and drinkAs well as automobiles, the growth rate was among the highest, while leisure services plummeted, and real estate, household appliances, media, and mining declined.
Last weekend, the new crown strain had a greater impact on the global capital market, which once triggered a sell-off in the capital market. With the sharp drop in European and American stock markets, today’s A-share sentiment impacted the next opening lower, but the rapid bottoming and rebounding momentum in the intraday market still shows the strength of the current market support. However, looking at the performance throughout the day, the upward trend of some heavyweight stocks led to the rebound of the index, and the drop of more than 3,000 shares in the intraday market still showed a downturn in short-term trading enthusiasm.
It should be noted that due to the uncertainty of the new crown and new strains, short-term A shares may still be under pressure. It is recommended to keep a certain wait and see and wait for further certainty before making specific decisions. On the one hand, before the new crown and new strains, internal and external troubles actually suppressed the market’s positive trend. In particular, the downward pressure on the domestic economy and concerns about the anticipated advancement of interest rate hikes in the United States; on the other hand, the new strain of the new crown has hit the world’s confidence in epidemic prevention and also affected investors’ investment sentiment; in addition, it is the new strain that is most concerned at present. Sustainability and influence. Currently, many countries have restricted entry. If it is further fermented, it will be a major blow to the global economy that has just recovered.
We are concerned about the new coronavirus strain. In addition to the impact on the global economy, we also need to pay attention to the trend of overseas markets affected by this. If the overseas market continues to decline, then A shares will not be alone. After all, the linkage effect of the global capital market is getting stronger and stronger, especially the weak trend.
Of course, we don’t have to be too pessimistic. Judging from today’s market trends, A-shares have relatively strong resilience, while domestic fundamentals and liquidity are relatively stable, which still constitutes a certain support for the market.Superimposed we still havecurrencyLoose expectations and room for A-shares still have room for improvement even when the current valuation is not high.
To sum up: During the current policy window period, market incremental funds are also relatively limited, and the game is more about stock funds. The rise and fall after the market rebound under the suppression of multiple parties has shown that continuity remains to be seen. The short-term “black swan” event haunts the global capital market, and we still need to wait and see, waiting for the elimination of the impact and relative certainty. In the medium term, we are not pessimistic about the new year and the first quarter of the coming year. After all, the current market fundamentals and liquidity are relatively stable, inflation is expected to peak, and market sentiment is gradually picking up, and the market is expected to gradually pick up. And if there is a phased correction, it may be the biggest test for the new year and the first quarter of the next year.
(Source: Jufeng Finance)
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