Viewpoint: the latestSMEsAccording to the data, although the economy is still in the expansion range, in terms of trends, the recovery has begun to slow down, and the downward pressure on the economy is greater. At the same time, liquidity remains stable, but it will take time for easing expectations to rise. The current market structure is dominated by market conditions. In the medium term, if inflation declines and liquidity easing trends are established, the market is still expected to usher in a new trending market. But before that, the market is still uncertain, and the structural market will continue. While paying attention to overall risks, you can focus on individual stocks from the bottom up.
In the morning, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both opened high, and after the openingShanghai IndexThe shock retracement, and Shenzhen Component Index refers to the red disk position consolidation. During the session, consumption stocks such as liquor rose rapidly, while resource stocks such as coal and non-ferrous metals plummeted. The market continued to differentiate and the seesaw effect was obvious. In specific sections,food and drinkLeading the rise, leisure services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, and medical and biological industries led the way.Non-ferrous metals, Iron and steel, chemical industry and building decoration etc. fell.
The biggest highlight of the day isKweichow MoutaiFor the representative liquor and other consumer stocks.Kweichow MoutaiThe intraday surge once rose by the daily limit, and many liquor stocks also rose by the daily limit, setting off a tide of daily limit. Since the epidemic, market funds have once held a group of core assets.Kweichow MoutaiWaiting for the standard to continue to strengthen. However, due to continuous surges and high valuations, value stocks have continued to fall this year, with Kweichow Moutai falling by more than 40%.
For Kweichow Moutai, the market is still optimistic about its long-term value. From a long-term perspective, changes in the current market environment and the decline in company valuation provide opportunities for layout. However, in the short term, the overall valuation of consumer stocks is relatively high, and there is still the possibility of an overall decline. The underlying stocks are estimated to be volatile. Phased investors still stay on the sidelines or wait patiently for opportunities on the right to appear.
Looking back, in the morning when Kweichow Moutai’s daily limit was up, the market ushered in a wave of limit-down. The intraday limit of over 100 shares still cast a shadow on the pre-holiday market. This also fully shows that even the current daily limit of Kweichow Moutai cannot drive market enthusiasm. The seesaw effect of the market is very obvious, and it is difficult to form effective consistency under differentiation. In fact, this is basically the same as the nature of the current market, that is, uncertainties at home and abroad increase the pressure on the market. Under continuous differentiation, the main line is not clear, and it is still difficult to grasp the opportunity.
Therefore, in the current process of market structure, repetition may be the main tone. Under multiple pressures at home and abroad, the index may fluctuate repeatedly or even greatly. Before the superposition festival, transactions in the two cities will generally show a historical pattern of shrinking, and the market may not have a very good market. It is recommended that investors remain cautious. More, we will wait for the market reversal after the National Day to be clear before making specific decisions.
Of course, the current domestic economy is generally improving and liquidity remains stable. Opportunities in the structural market are relatively prominent. You can consider following the policy to continue to track the opportunities for infrastructure development under the expected economic boost, and you can also focus on promoting automobile consumption and boosting catering. Consumption, the development of new business formats, new models, and new scenarios will see opportunities for a rebound in consumer products. For investors with strong ability to grasp the stage, it is actually still a bull market. But it may be more difficult for investors who do not adapt to the structural market. Therefore, in the short term, we should try our best to stay on the sidelines, or adjust positions for stock swaps. In the medium term, we still need to be prepared for low buying and balanced allocation.
(Source: Jufeng Finance)
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