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Kerry sets up an (almost) impossible mission

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Mission: impossible. On the eve of Cop26, John Kerry appears as Tom Cruise who fails to bring the seventh chapter of the saga to the screens, but is already shooting the eighth film. The American climate czar, designated by President Joe Biden as his special envoy, is used to tough challenges, as his political career as a White House challenger demonstrates. But this one of the Glasgow Climate Conference risks being the most difficult mission of his career, as he has to guard against enemies at home and outside.

Enemies outside the home

Abroad, the American chief negotiator has to contend with the resistance of various countries, primarily China, to accelerate plans for a net zero economy. The tense relations between the two giants have also damaged the climate negotiations.

«The United States is in a new cold war: no longer political but commercial, no longer with Russia but with China; but the effects are very similar, “acknowledged the English historian Niall Ferguson (who teaches at Stanford and Harvard universities), presenting his latest book at the Commonwealth Club (” Catastrophes. History Lessons for the West “, out for Mondadori on November 9). The defense of the planet from climatic upheavals will not lead to a handshake between the leaders of the most polluting powers: Biden will be in Glasgow, accompanied by Kerry and 13 members of his administration, while President Xi Jinping will not participate. Yet Kerry is continuing to work on a deal to keep emissions below the crucial two degrees of early industrial warming threshold. But the negotiations are difficult, even though they bring in 100 billion dollars a year for the green transition of the least developed countries.

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Enemies in the house

There are also difficulties on American soil. Two factors are jeopardizing the American green turn promised by Biden, with the return to the Paris Accords (after Trump’s withdrawal) and with the promise of a rich incentive package. In Congress, the $ 3,500 billion Build Back Better Act is struggling: too expensive and “extremist” in terms of incentives and fines based on green strategies (the Clean electricity performance program). But these measures, together with tax incentives for clean energy, are essential to halve emissions by 2030 (compared to 2005). “Failing to achieve this would be like exiting the Paris Accords again,” Kerry cautioned, sending the red code to anti-ecological senators.

Even the economic situation does not help: the more than double price of gas, compared to last year, has led to reigniting polluting coal-fired power plants. For the first time, the production of “dirty” energy is estimated by the government to increase for 2021, as much as 22%, for the first time since 2014. Another tile on Kerry’s head.

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