Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 31. Title: Leading indicators show that the overall recovery of the Chinese economy is obvious
Xinhua News Agency reporters Zhou Wenqi, Guo Xin, Zhang Wenjing
The latest data show that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in March was in the expansion range for the third consecutive month.
The Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on the 31st. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, which was higher than the threshold. Keep expanding.
“Affected by factors such as the high base in the previous month, the manufacturing PMI fell in March, and the level of prosperity was still the second highest in the past two years. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 had higher PMIs than last month.” The National Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the Statistics Bureau, said.
This is the Jiangsu Taicang Port Wharf (drone photo) taken on March 13, 2023.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Bo
From October to December 2022, China’s manufacturing PMIs will be 49.2%, 48%, and 47% respectively, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. In January 2023, it jumped to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range. In February, it climbed to 52.6%.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that since October last year, the manufacturing PMI has returned from the line of prosperity and decline to the line of prosperity and decline relatively quickly. Although March this year has dropped compared to February, 51.9% is still a relatively high level on the line of prosperity and decline.
“Although there are slight fluctuations, the manufacturing PMI has been on the line of prosperity and decline for three consecutive months, indicating that the level of prosperity in China’s economic activities continues to pick up, the vitality of business entities is gradually increasing, and the overall economic recovery is obvious.” Zhang Liqun said.
According to statistics, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises in March were 53.6%, 50.3% and 50.4% respectively, all of which were higher than the critical point.
Zhao Xijun, co-director of the China Institute of Capital Market Research at Renmin University of China, said that in the past, sometimes the PMI of the manufacturing industry was higher than 50%, but the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises was not good. Today, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises are all in the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation of various business entities are steadily recovering.
On March 29, in the production workshop of Harbin Electric Machinery Factory Co., Ltd. of Harbin Electric Group, an intelligent lamination robot was performing automated operations.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xie Jianfei
In addition, the production index was 54.6% in March, and the new orders index was 53.6%.
Zhao Xijun said that these two data have reached a relatively high level of prosperity, which not only shows that the production tasks of manufacturing enterprises have increased, the start of work is good, and the market has generally improved, but also that the policy of “stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand” has continued to show results.
The performance of the non-manufacturing industry was even brighter. In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 58.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, significantly higher than the threshold, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing recovery and development has accelerated.
Zhao Qinghe said that from the industry perspective, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, leasing and business services and other industries is higher than 60.0%, indicating that the recent residents’ willingness to consume and business travel has increased, and the market activity of related industries has rebounded rapidly .
Like the latest manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index, a number of economic indicators released in March have pulled out an “upward curve”, conveying the warmth and vitality of China’s economic recovery.
In the first two months of this year, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, realizing a shift from decline to increase; fixed asset investment increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the growth rate of last year; total export value increased by 0.9% year-on-year… The “Troika” driving economic growth is in a stable trend.
On February 28, at the Sanse Road Night Market in Jinjiang District, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, citizens were buying snacks.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Tang Wenhao
According to statistics from Qunar.com, in the first three weeks of March, the number of flight bookings in many Chinese cities exceeded the level of the same period in 2019; monitoring data from the State Post Bureau shows that as of March 8, China’s express delivery business volume in 2023 will reach 20 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase compared with 2019. The year reached 20 billion pieces 72 days ahead of schedule; according to the data released by the People’s Bank of China, the social financing scale increased by 3.16 trillion yuan in February, 1.95 trillion yuan more than the same period last year… The activity of people flow, logistics, and capital flow has increased significantly.
After raising China’s GDP growth forecast in 2023 from 5.2% to 5.5% in January, investment bank Goldman Sachs recently raised its growth forecast to 6%.
“The material and technological foundation of economic development is solid, the epidemic prevention and control has a rapid and stable transition, the macroeconomic policies are appropriate and effective, and the confidence of business entities is constantly increasing. Many factors have made China’s economy rebound steadily and continue to improve after the beginning of the year.” Zhang Liqun said that China The economy has steadily entered the recovery track, and the prospect of recovery is relatively clear. It is expected to walk out of the economic growth curve of continuous recovery throughout the year.
In 2023, China’s economic operation is off to a good start. Looking forward to the situation throughout the year, industry insiders believe that although China’s economic development is still facing pressure and challenges, with the gradual consolidation of the foundation of economic recovery and the continuous implementation of economic stabilization measures, it is expected to continue to recover throughout the year.
[Responsible editor: Xu Kun]