“I want investors to redeem my products recently, and I feel that I can’t make investments anymore. It’s too difficult!” A private equity firm in ShanghaifundThe manager has been upset recently.
At the beginning of the year, when talking about the main line of investment this year, public and private equity were mostly optimistic about the big consumption and growth sectors. However, after the long Spring Festival holiday, the market once again fulfilled the principle of “unpredictable”, big consumption entered a period of adjustment, and the pharmaceutical, new energy, and cyclical sectors took turns to perform. The multiple switching of industries and styles made investors tired of coping.
The recent bottoming of liquor stocks and the sharp decline in the cyclical sector have once again caught many fund managers by surprise. Faced with the “question of the soul” of adjusting positions or sticking to it, fund managers are lost in confusion.
Distress: the market will change its face at any time
“I have been under a lot of psychological pressure recently, not becauseFund net worthThe retracement is large, but it has some doubts about its investment ability or investment framework. “In an interview with reporters, a private equity fund manager in Shanghai was quite candid and talked about some of his troubles in investment.
The fund manager said bluntly: “At the beginning of the year, I did feel that the consumer sector was more expensive, so I switched from the consumer sector to the cyclical sector in advance. However, after the Spring Festival holiday not only consumer stocks were digesting the valuation pressure, but the cyclical sector also fell. So 3 At the end of the month, I bought some Hong Kong stocks and hunted down the leading liquor stocks. I did not expect to be affected by unexpected factors. In the second and third quarters, some of my holdings had a significant correction. The periodical sector that performed well in the same period was not my strong suit, so I was quite entangled. Liquor stocks have rebounded collectively in the past two days, but I have not seen any clear signs of improvement in the relevant data. This market really stopped me, I feel that the switch is too fast, and the rise and fall are also very rapid.”
This year’s rapid industry rotation and style switching have made many fund managers in a dilemma.The data shows that in April and Mayfood and drinkThe gains of the sectors all exceeded 10%, which attracted the attention of the market for a while.However, in Julyfood and drinkThe sudden decline in the sector caught people off guard, with a drop of more than 14% that month.existfood and drinkWhile the market for roller coasters is staged in the sector, the cycle sector is riding the dust.Non-ferrous metalsThe industry’s growth rate in July and August exceeded 20%, and the growth rate of basic chemical industry in these two months also exceeded 10%. Unexpectedly, the cyclical sector has rapidly fallen into adjustment in recent days, while the consumer sector has bottomed out and rebounded.Kweichow MoutaiOn the 27th, the increase was as high as 9.5%.
“It’s too uncomfortable to be passively beaten.” A public fund manager in Shanghai with a management scale of over 10 billion said with emotion. It is reported that he made a lot of money by betting on the consumer industry last year, but he has been hit by the market successively this year.
He said frankly that although he had lightened some consumer stocks before, he doubted the continuity of the energy sector’s rise, because the excessive increase in upstream prices would have a great impact on the downstream physical industry. “Because there is no heavy stock of related energy stocks, it can only bear the differentiation of the market to the fund.PerformanceThe impact. “
Thinking: Go through the fog and attack
When some fund managers are in confusion, other fund managers choose to lighten their positions slightly or appropriately slow down the pace of opening positions in order to obtain a higher winning rate.
Data shows that the stocks listed in SeptemberETF, The pace of opening positions is generally slow. The average position before listing is only 20.37%, which is a decrease from August. Among them, the average position of industry theme ETFs before listing is less than 15%, and there are 3 ETFs that are still zero when they are close to listing. The situation of the position. From the perspective of public funds in the period of opening positions, as of September 27, the average maximum drawdown of more than 400 funds since the establishment was only 3.09%, and the net value of many funds fluctuated slightly for multiple consecutive weeks, which means they opened positions. The pace is slower and is still waiting for relevant investment opportunities.
A public fund manager said that the slow opening of positions is to find a better time to open positions. Recently, hotspots are switching quickly. In order to give investors a better investment experience, they will not adopt very aggressive investment strategies. We need to pay attention to every opportunity that can accumulate a safety mat.
While public offerings were cautiously building positions, tens of billions of private equity positions also dropped significantly. Private equity ranking data show that as of September 17, the private equity position index of tens of billions of stocks was 78.81%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points from the previous week, and it fell below 80% for the first time this year.
A fund manager of a leading private equity fund in Shanghai recently stated in a weekly report to investors: “For me, the most important thing now is to lay out through the fog. When I think I can’t see clearly, I take a break. , And attack when the certainty arrives. I don’t want to be led by the market, so I took a small position to lighten up.”
A private placementFund researchAccording to analysts’ analysis, the high probability of lightening of tens of billions of private equity is due to short-term adjustments. “Since the beginning of this year, the performance of many subjective long tens of billions of private equity is not satisfactory. Structural adjustments are needed before the National Day holiday, or position management is required to control net value fluctuations. Therefore, positions have dropped significantly. But this does not mean that the market is pessimistic. More to prepare for the fourth quarter.”
Disagreement: Keep up with consumer stocks or wait and see for now?
In the past two days, fund managers have faced a new problem: Can the rebound in the consumer sector continue? Is the callback of the cyclical sector a “flop” or the end of the market? From the point of view of some fund managers, the divergence between institutions is increasing.
According to an analysis by a head of private equity, from the perspective of economic data,PPIwithCPIThe scissors gap is widening, which means that consumer prices will go down and prices of production materials will go up. This trend will make consumer-related industries face greater difficulties. Therefore, the rise of the consumer sector may be a short-term phenomenon. Whether the rising market can continue depends on Economic data and performance of listed companies. At present, the company will not participate too much in investment in the consumer sector. In addition, the cyclical sector, due to the high previous gains, has the risk of valuation regression, and must be cautiously involved. The company is now focusing on industry leaders in the manufacturing sector, and its valuation and certainty are attractive.
Star Stone Investment believes that the consumer segment is expected to gradually repair, and there is a certain relative advantage.The reason is that, judging from the semi-annual report, delivery, leisure services andTextile and ApparelAnd other industriesNet profitThe growth rate has improved significantly, and the first signs of prosperity have appeared.
FromLonghubangFrom the data point of view, institutions are divided on the market outlook of the liquor sector, and their willingness to participate is low.likeWuliangyeThe daily limit closed on the 27th,Shenzhen Stock ConnectBuying 1.921 billion yuan and selling 1.028 billion yuan, only two institutional seats appeared in the Dragon and Tiger list, one of which was bought for 265 million yuan and the other was sold for 402 million yuan.Luzhou LaojiaoOn the 27th, it also closed at the daily limit, and two institutions appeared in the Dragon and Tiger rankings, and sold a total of 456 million yuan.
(Source: Shanghai Securities News)
(Original title: Liquor stocks bottomed out and the cyclical sector plummeted. Fund managers are confused about adjusting their positions or sticking to them)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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