Summary
[Liquor stocks rise higher, the daily limit of the current world is concerned about the three main investment lines]For the liquor sector, Shanxi Securities pointed out that in 2021, liquor has achieved a good start, and the performance of the sector has significantly exceeded the level before the epidemic. Among them, high-end liquor has grown steadily, sub-high-end and regional Under the low base in the first quarter of 2020 and the strong demand during the Spring Festival in 2021, liquor has shown good performance flexibility, such as Shuijingfang, Shede Liquor, Jiugui Liquor and so on.
Liquor stocks rose strongly in intraday trading on the 7th. As of press time,This worldDaily limit,Dahao Technology、Jin HuijiuRose nearly 6%,Laobai dry wine、ShuijingfangAn increase of over 4%,Welcome to the tribute wine、Alcoholic WineThe increase was over 3%.
For the liquor sector,Shanxi SecuritiesIt is pointed out that in 2021, liquor has achieved a good start.PerformanceIt has significantly exceeded the pre-epidemic level. Among them, high-end liquors have grown steadily. Sub-high-end and regional liquors have shown better performance elasticity under the low base in the first quarter of 2020 and strong demand during the Spring Festival in 2021.Shuijingfang、Willing to wine industry、Alcoholic WineWait.along withKweichow Moutai、WuliangyeWait for a batch of prices to stop falling and rebound,Kweichow Moutai、Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoThe price of other high-end wines continues to rise: the current price of loose bottle Moutai is about 2,800 yuan, and the price of FCL Moutai is more than 3,300 yuan. Although the company adopts an unpacking policy to stabilize the approval price, the approval price continues to rise; the price of the general five batches rises to 990-1000 yuan. The price of Guojiao has risen to around 920 yuan, and high-end wines are prospering overall. In addition, with Moutai,WuliangyeThe price continues to be high, giving up the price band of 600-800 yuan, and the price of sub-high-end wine is raised and the product structure is upgraded. Therefore, the epidemic control is stable and improving, and consumption data is picking up. It is expected that the subsequent sales of liquor may still maintain a healthy momentum. And along with the implementation of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, major liquor companies have proposed the goal of doubling or quadrupling in five years. Liquor companies are generally positive towards the growth target of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a compound annual growth rate of more than double digits. Therefore, high-end liquors continue to rise and fall, which will inevitably drive the upgrade of the sub-high-end price band. At the same time, the middle class continues to expand to promote the consumption of mid-to-high-end liquors. Taking into account the certainty of growth in the next five years, the current valuation of the liquor sector is still cost-effective.
The agency believes that this year’s second- and third-line small wine stock prices have a large gap with the first-line famous wine stock prices, and the market is divided. Although the short-term valuation is relatively high, the long-term value of the industry should be emphasized, and time should be exchanged for space. The overall prosperity of the liquor industry fundamentals remains unabated. Although the base figure is relatively high in the second half of the year, the performance growth rate in the second half of this year is expected to be lower than that in the first half of the year, but the structural prosperity continues. In addition, the interim report of liquor performance is expected to usher in high growth, which is a solid support for the valuation of the sector. Hold the first-line liquor tightly and look for the second and third-line high elasticity. Standing at this point in time, it is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: (1) Stick to the first-line liquor position,Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye,Luzhou Laojiao; (2) Looking for highly flexible second and third line markers,Shanxi Fenjiu、Alcoholic Wine、Willing to wine industry、Shuijingfang; (3) Pay attention to stocks with low valuation performance that are expected to exceed expectations,This world、Gujing Gongjiu，Yanghe sharesWait.
(Source: Securities Times Net)
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