Economic Observer Network reporter Liang Ji On April 11, 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and moved lower, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Heavyweight stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) and Ningde Times (300750.SZ) were extinguished, and the market was almost completely inked. The Shanghai index fell below the 3,200-point mark, and the ChiNext index fell more than 4% under the drag of heavyweights, hitting a new low for the year. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell below 1,000 basis points for the first time and closed at 988.76 points, down 3.75%.
On the morning of April 11, the interest rates on the 10-year Treasury bond between China and the United States inverted for the first time since 2010. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 2.7640%, while the yield on China’s 10-year Treasury bond was unchanged at 2.7525%. Wind data shows that the net sales of northbound funds was 5.762 billion yuan, which was significantly higher than the level of 627 million yuan in the previous trading day.
Star Stone Investment said that there are two reasons behind the stock market crash today: first, the domestic epidemic situation is severe, and the market economy is expected to weaken further; second, the interest rate in China and the United States has inverted, which has a greater impact on market sentiment. In addition, the domestic hype has cooled down. It believes that the current market is still in the stage of shock grinding, and in the medium term, the market opportunities outweigh the risks.
SDIC UBS Fund believes that the market decline is mainly caused by multiple internal and external factors. Since March, the epidemic has repeatedly occurred in many parts of the country. The epidemic prevention and control situation in Changchun, Shanghai and other cities is still severe. The epidemic continues to disrupt production and life in various places. Secondly, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate rose to 2.78% today, and the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond between China and the United States The inversion of the difference aggravates the panic of foreign investors; in addition, the recent statements of the National Standing Committee and the state ministries and commissions have continued to release signals of steady growth, but the RRR cut and interest rate expected by the market have not appeared, and the overall sentiment is still fragile.
As of the close on April 11, the three major A-share stock indexes fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index reported 3167.13 points, down 2.61%; the Shenzhen Component Index reported 11520.21 points, down 3.67%; the ChiNext Index reported 2462.04 points, down 4.20%. Only 569 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up, while 4,166 stocks closed down. A total of 963.722 billion yuan was traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, slightly higher than the previous trading day.
On the disk, the broader market was almost full of ink, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector closed up 2.08%, and the rest of the sectors closed down across the board. Among them, the power equipment sector led the decline, with a decline of 5.43%; non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobiles, computers and defense and military industries all fell by more than 4%.
Dragged down by heavyweight stocks, the ChiNext Index tumbled more than 4% today. CATL fell 7.27%, and Oriental Fortune (300059.SZ) fell 5.29%. In addition, the Shenwan Tier 1 Nonferrous Metals Index fell 4.98% today, Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) fell by the limit and reported 70.3 yuan per share, down 10%, with a market value of 103.8 billion yuan; Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) It fell 9.44% to 112 yuan per share, with a market value of 161 billion yuan.
In the Hong Kong stock market, “Wei Xiaoli” closed down across the board. As of the close on the 11th, NIO-SW (9866.HK) reported HK$144.80, down 11.44%; Xpeng Motors-W (9868.HK) reported HK$100.20, down 9.89%; Ideal Auto-W (2015.HK) reported HK$96.85, down 8.11%. On the afternoon of April 9, NIO issued a statement saying that since March, due to the epidemic, the company’s supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai and other places have successively stopped production and have not yet resumed. Affected by this, Weilai’s vehicle production has been suspended.
Since the end of last year, the new energy track stocks have fluctuated downwards, during which the market value of Ningde era has evaporated by more than 30%. Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, told the Economic Observer Network that this round of correction is due to the continuous high price of lithium carbonate, which is basically maintained at 500,000 / ton, and may last for 1-2 months; The production capacity of the energy vehicle supply chain has been reduced or even stopped, which has directly led to the reduction of deliveries by various car companies. On the demand side, the continuous closure and control will also lead to the weakness of downstream consumption, so the market is also worried about whether the new energy vehicles that continue to increase in price can maintain the previous growth rate.
He Lize, investment manager of Zhishan Zhishan, said that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 will greatly exceed market expectations, and the entire new energy sector has risen sharply. Some individual stocks have overdrafted their performance in the next few years. With reference to the development path of smartphones, the valuation is top has begun to appear. At the beginning of 2022, negative factors began to accumulate. The short-term surge in upstream raw material lithium carbonate suppressed the profits of the middle and lower reaches. The price increase of new energy vehicles transmitted the pressure of rising costs or suppressed demand. The repeated epidemics and the disturbance of core shortages caused the development of the entire industry chain to develop unhealthy. state. In addition, the sharp rise of individual stocks in the early stage has accumulated a large number of profit-making activities, and there have been continuous profit-taking and exit of institutions, and the negative feedback of individual stocks falling – fund redemption – individual stocks falling has further intensified the downward trend.
In addition, according to Xinhua News Agency, the “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Market” was released on April 10. The opinions are clear, speed up the establishment of a unified national market system and rules, break local protection and market segmentation, break through the key blocking points that restrict the economic cycle, promote the smooth flow of commodity factors and resources on a larger scale, and accelerate the construction of efficient and standardized, fair competition, and full opening. national unified market.
On April 11, the logistics sector hit the daily limit on a large scale. As of the close, Xinning Logistics (300013.SZ) rose 20.00%; Feilida (300240.SZ) rose 19.97%, Huapengfei (300350.SZ) rose 12.26%, and Wanlin Logistics (603117.SH), Feilida 13 stocks including Ma International (002210.SZ) had daily limit.
China and America10Treasury bond interest rates invert
On the morning of April 11, the interest rates of China and the United States 10-year treasury bonds were inverted for the first time since 2010. The yield of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds rose to 2.7640%. ”) yields were flat at 2.7525%.
As of 16:00 on the 11th, Wind data showed that the inversion of the 10-year Treasury bond rate between China and the United States has narrowed. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond of the United States was nearly 2.7610%, and the yield of the 22-year Treasury bond 03 was nearly 2.7450%; The yield on the Treasury bond was 2.2450%, and the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury bond was 2.5300%, an inversion of 28.5BP. In addition, the yield of China’s 5-year treasury bond is 2.5400%, and the yield of US two-year treasury bond is 2.7600%, upside-down 22BP.
As for the impact of the inversion of the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate in China and the United States on A shares, Star Stone Investment believes that this round of narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate gap brought about by the rapid rise in US bond interest rates will have a limited impact on the stock market. Historically, the stock market did not show a unilateral downward trend during the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate differential, and the stock market performance will gradually recover after the Sino-US interest rate spread hits a historical low.
Star Stone Investment said that, looking back at the current market, the previous adjustment has released some risks. At present, the stock market has a good medium and long-term investment value. The domestic policy and economic trend are the decisive factors for the stock market trend. From the perspective of the stock market style, the rise in US bond interest rates has put more pressure on the growth sector, while the value sector has performed relatively well.
The macro team of Sinolink Securities believes that historically, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will impact the bond market and disturb the stock market. Since 2015, the impact of arbitrage transactions on cross-border capital flows has increased, and offshore market funds are more sensitive to the Sino-US interest rate differential. With the increase in the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate after the 811 exchange rate reform in 2015, the impact of arbitrage transactions on cross-border capital flows has weakened, while the impact of the Sino-US interest rate gap has increased. Among them, the capital account difference between banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sale in the onshore market is less sensitive to the Sino-US interest rate spread; in the offshore market, there have been foreign capital outflows of a certain scale in the middle and late stages of the nearly four rounds of narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread in the offshore market. .
The flow of foreign capital in the bond market is more sensitive to the Sino-US interest rate differential, while the foreign capital in the equity market is more affected by the price of Chinese and American assets, and the interest rate differential also disturbs transaction funds. Historically, the correlation between foreign debt holdings and the Sino-US interest rate spread is relatively high. The reduction of government bonds is the mainstay. In the equity market, the difference in asset returns between China and the United States has a stronger explanatory power for the flow of capital to the north, and the trading session will be disturbed by the interest rate difference between China and the United States.
3moonCPI、PPIOverall exceeded expectations
In terms of the domestic economy that the market is also concerned about, on April 11, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) data for March 2022. The CPI increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and was flat month-on-month; the PPI increased by 8.3% year-on-year (previous value was 8.8%) and increased by 1.1% month-on-month, which was overall higher than expected.
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in March, due to factors such as the spread of the epidemic in many places in China and the rise in international commodity prices, the CPI was flat month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded; in the same period, due to factors such as international commodity prices As a result, the PPI rose month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.
Everbright Securities pointed out that the price data in March was mainly affected by the dual factors of the domestic epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine abroad. On the one hand, the epidemic has caused some food prices to be higher than seasonal, and the rise in oil prices has pushed up the year-on-year increase in CPI; on the other hand, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and imported inflation pressure has driven up domestic energy and chemical prices, restricting the year-on-year growth of PPI. Downward speed. It is expected that the year-on-year CPI will remain low and then high. In the second half of the year, pig prices are expected to usher in a new round of rising cycle. There is a risk of breaking 3% around September, but the repeated epidemic may constrain the CPI center during the year. In terms of PPI, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of the year and the steady growth in the second half of the year, it is expected that there is not much room for the price of bulk commodities to fall, which restricts the rate of decline in the year-on-year growth of PPI, and the cost pressure on the enterprise side is still relatively large.
The disturbance of the epidemic is the reason for the higher-than-expected CPI, said the Everbright Securities Research Report. At present, the price data in March more reflects the cost-side impact brought by the impact of the epidemic, while the impact of weaker demand has not yet been reflected. On the one hand, due to the blockade in some areas, the supply chain is not smooth, and the supply and demand are unbalanced, and the prices of some foods such as fresh vegetables and eggs have risen, which is contrary to the seasonal trend. On the other hand, since the stricter epidemic control in various places generally appeared after late March, the service industry was relatively less affected in March. It is expected that the drag of the epidemic on the service industry may be further reflected at the price level in April. At the same time, due to the continuous high level of upstream raw materials and the rigid pressure on the cost side, it is also difficult for the prices of consumer goods to fall.
In terms of PPI, its month-on-month increase in March expanded again, but driven by a high base, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI still maintained a downward trend. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has driven up domestic energy and chemical prices, which is the main reason for the expansion of the PPI month-on-month increase. In addition, due to the rise in overseas coal prices and the widening of the price gap between domestic and foreign coal, the number of domestic coal imports has decreased, which has driven domestic coal prices to rise.
Recently, as the United States and Europe have increased the release of strategic oil reserves to ease the upward pressure on oil prices, oil prices have continued to fall since the end of March. However, considering that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, the risk of sanctions is still there, and the oil price is still in a high and volatile environment in the first half of the year, which will continue to restrict the downward speed of the PPI growth rate in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, with the gradual effect of stabilizing growth, it is expected that domestic commodity prices will also face upward pressure. Everbright Securities pointed out that inflation transmission is still continuing, but the differentiation between industries is more serious. Judging from the structure of PPI living materials in March, the price of food and daily necessities with stable demand has expanded, and prices are still increasing; however, affected by factors such as the epidemic, the prices of clothing and durable goods whose demand has recovered slowly remained unchanged from the previous month or 2017. Down, the range of price increases is limited.Return to Sohu, see more