Shanghai IndexThe staged high of 3731 points formed during the year, long-term attack will not be resolved, the market will fall for a long time. The supporting strength is the 200-day moving average, which is 3468 points. After the Shanghai stock index has stepped back four times, the stock volume fell below this Monday, and the support is not there. In addition to falling or falling, the market outlook will continue to look for support downward. However, this week’s decline was too strong, and a rebound was brewing after the oversold.
Affected by various bad news, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index both closed the weekly K-line and a heavy-volume negative K-line this week.themeDriven stocks to resist falling, also indicates that the market will not be good in the second half of the year.
The stable market suddenly ushered in a sharp drop, confirming the stock market proverb “The greatest certainty is uncertainty.” Risks always exist in the securities market. This sharp drop is due to the long-term and healthy development considerations, the management has introduced a series of policies such as “education double reduction”, which triggered the reduction of overseas capital’s allocation of Chinese stocks and China concept stocks. Most Chinese concept stocks have foreign capital intervention and venture capital. The stock market plummeted this time and caused major losses to foreign capital, such as Chinese concept education stocks and Internet technology stocks. Most of these stocks are foreign capital investment operations.
This has also led to two changes in the market. One is the shift from education, finance, and the Internet to hard technology and manufacturing. No more emphasis on increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry. From the previous study of the American model, to the current German model, which tends to be a manufacturing power. The second is to shift from giving priority to efficiency to taking into account fairness, and to achieve the goal of common prosperity at an unprecedented height. Anything that hinders fairness and uneven distribution will face reform.
Technically, first, the Shanghai stock index formed a phased high of 3731 points during the year. Second, according to the first-line trading system technology supported by the valley adjustment, the supported strength is the 200-day moving average, which is worth 3468 points. After the Shanghai index has stepped back four times, the lifting volume fell below this Monday, and the support is not there. The market outlook is not only down or down , Will continue to look for support downwards. The most ideal operating structure is an oscillating type, that is, to choose a direction around the 200-day moving average. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is currently under the sixth line, and the market is weak, so treat it with caution. However, this week’s decline was too strong, and a rebound was brewing after the oversold. The third is that the monthly and weekly K-line MACD of the Shanghai Index is operating above the O-axis of the bullish zone. After continuous volatility and decline, the yellow and white lines of the monthly K-line of the Shanghai Index have become passivated, and the red pillars have shortened. The MACD of the Shanghai index weekly K-line has gone down and green pillars have appeared. The green pillars representing the strength of long and short energy have increased and the trend has changed from strong to weak. The daily MACD has entered the bearish zone, and the green column is growing.
Under the background of the severe volatility of A-shares, overseas long-term funds have not returned significantly, and overseas ChinesefundFaced with continued redemption pressure in the near future.In terms of domestic capital, public offering institutions in JulyCash flowCompared with the second quarter, the net outflow scale continued to increase. The short-term panic selling has basically ended, and an oversold rebound is brewing.
(The author is Shenzhen Qianhai High Probability Asset ManagementCompany investmentDirector)
(Source: Public Securities News)