Liu Yuanchun
The policy basis and endogenous driving force for sustained recovery remain the focus of China’s economy in the medium term.
“The bottom in May and the rebound in June are the results of the phased victory of epidemic prevention and control and the hedging of previous policies. The basic goals for the second quarter have been completed. The stock policy is ahead, the incremental policy is exerted, the local level is broken down, and the overall catch-up is overtaken. The resumption of work and production will ensure an accelerated economic rebound in the third quarter.” Liu Yuanchun predicts that the path of China’s economic recovery will not be U-shaped, L-shaped, or V-shaped, but will likely show an asymmetric W-shaped.
With the completion of the task in the second quarter, the acceleration of the economic rebound in the third quarter is inevitable.
Liu Yuanchun analyzed at the meeting that there are two main reasons. On the one hand, the economic rebound under the impact of the epidemic has its own regularity; The implementation of various departments and departments, the strong supervision of the central government, the guarantee of short-term funds and finances, and the staged victory in epidemic control will not only ensure a rapid rebound in economic parameters in June, but also ensure that the economy will see an overall upturn in the third quarter.
From the perspective of existing policies, my country’s fiscal deposits at the end of May exceeded 6 trillion yuan, 168 billion yuan higher than the same period last year. The speed of fiscal expenditure in the first five months was lower than expected. It is expected that fiscal expenditure will be released in June. and concentrated spending in the third quarter.
From the perspective of special bonds, it is estimated that 3.65 trillion yuan will be issued this year. According to relevant arrangements, special bonds must be issued in June and basically used at the end of August. Concentrate on June, July, August and September.
From the perspective of major projects, the 102 major projects laid out in the “14th Five-Year Plan” showed a good start, good layout and rapid growth from January to February this year. Although there was a decline in March, April and May However, after the full resumption of work and production, to recover the time lost in the past three months, there will be a catch-up resumption of work and accelerated projects.
More importantly, Liu Yuanchun observed that in order to speed up the implementation of a series of incremental policy tools issued by the central government, local governments have also issued corresponding policies to follow up.
In terms of auto consumption, the national level has introduced a reduction of vehicle purchase tax of 60 billion yuan, commercial vehicle loans of 90 billion yuan, and local governments have introduced a policy of 1.5 billion yuan for direct auto subsidies. The latest figures show a rapid recovery in both sales and production of cars. In terms of consumer coupons, according to incomplete statistics, more than 30 cities have issued consumer coupons, with a total subsidy of more than 4 billion yuan.
In terms of real estate policies, according to incomplete statistics, more than 150 cities have loosened the regulation of real estate policies due to the premise of “housing and not speculating”, some canceled purchase and loan restrictions, and some lowered real estate loan interest rates. Some also lowered the down payment ratio.
“All kinds of financial policies have been comprehensively strengthened to ensure loose liquidity. The third batch of support for grassroots implementation of tax cuts and fee reductions and key people’s livelihood transfer payment funds budget of 400 billion yuan has been released ahead of schedule, and a new policy-based development credit line of 800 billion yuan is planned. ; 300 billion yuan of railway construction bonds, 300 billion yuan of financial bonds and development bonds; tax cuts, tax rebates, fee reductions, loans and social security delays are also intensified in June.” Liu Yuanchun said.
Liu Yuanchun believes that the policy basis and endogenous driving force for sustained recovery are still the focus that must be paid close attention to in the mid-term of my country’s economy.Return to Sohu, see more
Editor:
Statement: The opinions of this article only represent the author himself, Sohu is an information publishing platform, and Sohu only provides information storage space services.