Home Business Logistics industry dynamic research: Express data in April: single-ticket revenue maintains a year-on-year increase, waiting for demand to rebound after the end of the lockdown_Oriental Fortune Network

Logistics industry dynamic research: Express data in April: single-ticket revenue maintains a year-on-year increase, waiting for demand to rebound after the end of the lockdown_Oriental Fortune Network

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event:

The operation of the express industry in April and the operating data of express companies in April have been announced.

①Industry:

Volume: In April, the business volume of national express delivery service enterprises completed 7.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; the non-local express business volume reached 6.428 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%.

Price: In April, the single-ticket revenue of national express service companies was 9.90 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13% and a month-on-month increase of 3.29%; among which, the single-ticket revenue of non-local express delivery was 5.46 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.35%, a month-on-month increase of 0.92%.

②In terms of individual stocks:

Quantity: April,YTO ExpressThe completed business volume was 1.246 billion votes, a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%;STO ExpressCompleted business volume of 791 million votes, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%;Yunda sharesThe completed business volume was 1.132 billion votes, a year-on-year decrease of 19.37%.

Price: April,YTO ExpressThe single ticket revenue was 2.51 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% and a month-on-month increase of 1.21%;STO ExpressThe single ticket revenue was 2.57 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.66% and a month-on-month increase of 0.39%;Yunda sharesSingle ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.32%.

Investing points:

Single ticket revenue increased year-on-year, and the logic of pattern improvement remained unchanged

April 2022,YTO ExpressRevenue from a single ticket was 2.51 yuan, an increase of 16.41% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 1.21%. Excluding the impact of the Cainiao wrap business, the single-ticket revenue was 2.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43% and a month-on-month increase of 1.67%;STO ExpressThe single ticket revenue was 2.57 yuan, an increase of 20.66% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.39%. Excluding the impact of the Cainiao wrap business, the single-ticket revenue was 2.46 yuan, an increase of 15.49% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 1.23%;Yunda sharesSingle ticket revenue was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.32%. On a month-on-month basis, YTO and Shentong achieved positive growth in single-ticket revenue month-on-month, mainly due to the impact of express delivery companies charging additional delivery fees for outlets in the epidemic area during the epidemic. On a year-on-year basis, the single-ticket revenue of various companies maintained an upward trend, and the logic of pattern improvement remained unchanged.

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Business volume continues to be under pressure, waiting for demand to rebound after the end of the lockdown

The continuation of the epidemic containment and control policy has disrupted the overall operation of the express delivery industry. In April 2022, the business volume of the industry dropped by 11.9% year-on-year. At the level of individual stocks, all companies have been affected to varying degrees by the epidemic. Among them, Yunda has been greatly affected. The high proportion of business volume in East China and the impact of the epidemic in Shanxi Transshipment Center have caused Yunda’s business volume to drop by 19.37% year-on-year to 1.132 billion votes, accounting for 1.132 billion votes in the market. YTO and Shentong were also affected, with YTO’s business volume down 4.83% year-on-year to 1.246 billion votes, with a market share of 16.66%, an increase of 1.26pct year-on-year, and its market share rose to second; Shentong’s business The volume decreased by 7.68% year-on-year to 791 million votes, with a market share of 10.57% and a year-on-year increase of 0.49pct. With the gradual achievement of the goal of clearing the society in Shanghai, the express delivery industry is also on the road of steady recovery. The throughput index of the distribution centers of major express delivery companies has gradually recovered in mid-to-late April, waiting for demand to rebound after the end of the lockdown.

The epidemic does not hinder the long-term logic of the sector, and continues to recommend the e-commerce express industry

The epidemic only affects the rhythm of the release of logistics demand, and does not change the medium and long-term trend of improving the overall industry pattern and rising volume and price.performanceThe performance continues to verify the logic of pattern improvement. At present, the e-commerce express delivery industry has entered a stage of high-quality development that focuses on the balance between profit and share. In the new stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is far greater than the impact of changes in business volume. Investment opportunities brought about by the gradual recovery of cash flow and the continuous improvement of profitability.

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Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies

At present, the industry is disturbed by the short-term variables of the epidemic, but the trend of optimization of the e-commerce express business structure and the rise of ROE remains unchanged, and the logic of the sector continues to be verified. Maintain industry “recommended” rating.

Key recommended stocks YTO Express, STO Express,ZTO Express-SWYunda shares

Risk Warning Risks of intensified price wars, risks of less-than-expected industry prosperity, risks brought about by upstream and downstream integrationM&ARisks, risks brought about by changes in regulatory policies, risks of express franchisee liquidation, and risks that the performance of recommended companies does not meet expectations.

(Article Source:Guohai Securities

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