Logistics operation has stabilized and rebounded, and the vitality of the industry has increased
——Analysis of logistics operation in January-February 2023
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
China Logistics Information Center
From January to February 2023, the effect of stabilizing economic policies will continue to appear, and the impact of the epidemic will subside, and logistics demand will generally improve, and the total amount of social logistics and sub-items will rebound. In particular, after the Spring Festival in February, the recovery of logistics business volume accelerated, the industry’s prosperity level recovered steadily, the vitality of market entities increased, the supply chain cycle improved, and the overall logistics operation showed a trend of stabilization and recovery.
1. The recovery of logistics demand is accelerating, and many fields are showing positive changes
From January to February, the total amount of social logistics in my country was 53.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% at comparable prices. In terms of growth rate, although the growth rate from January to February was lower than that of the same period of the previous year, it was 1.4 percentage points faster than that in December of the previous year. It shows that the overall logistics operation has stabilized and rebounded, the scale of logistics demand has gradually expanded, and the growth rate of the total social logistics has picked up on the basis of the fourth quarter of last year. However, logistics demand is still in the recovery stage, the growth rate is still lower than the same period, and the structural differentiation is more obvious.
From a structural point of view, the pace of resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises has accelerated, the recovery of industrial product logistics demand has accelerated, the logistics of units and residents has maintained a relatively high recovery speed, and the flow of imported logistics has stopped falling and rebounded. The demand for logistics in the field has shown positive changes. Specifically reflected in the following aspects:
First, the resumption of work and production has been steadily advanced, and logistics in the industrial sector has stabilized and rebounded. Since the beginning of this year, the pace of resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises has accelerated, and the demand for logistics in related fields has stabilized and rebounded. From January to February, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%, which was 2.1 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in December last year. Among them, the steady recovery of basic industries has become an important basis for the stabilization of industrial logistics. The real estate and related fields have continued to see positive changes. The production and operation of upstream and downstream industries have grown steadily. In December, it accelerated by 3.1 and 0.4 percentage points.
Second, domestic demand has picked up, and the flow of imported logistics has rebounded. Import logistics benefited from the continuous improvement of domestic demand. From January to February, the total import logistics increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was 4.7 percentage points faster than that in December last year. It continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and the growth trend was more obvious. In particular, due to the increase in demand for inventory replenishment of bulk commodities, import logistics such as coal, iron ore and concentrate, copper ore and concentrate have increased significantly.
The third is that people’s livelihood is recovering well, and e-commerce logistics continues to accelerate the recovery trend. From January to February, the total logistics volume of units and residents increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points faster than that in December last year. Among them, the demand for online e-commerce logistics is growing well. The business volume index of China’s e-commerce logistics has rebounded to 114.9 points. The demand for e-commerce logistics in various regions and rural areas has comprehensively increased, and the logistics of new formats has shown a trend of continuous recovery and comprehensive development.
Fourth, the demand in various fields has differentiated, and the demand for industrial upgrading logistics has grown rapidly. From January to February, the total amount of logistics in most fields showed an upward trend, but it also showed structural differentiation. On the one hand, the recovery trend of logistics demand for industrial upgrading is relatively obvious. Among them, the growth rate of the total logistics of the railway shipbuilding and electrical machinery industries in the field of equipment manufacturing has accelerated, which is 7.7 and 3.1 percentage points faster than that in December last year. Industrial upgrading is still a support An important driver of logistics recovery. On the other hand, affected by the complex international environment, the logistics demand in export-related fields was relatively weak, and the total logistics exports of industries such as textiles, automobile manufacturing, and general equipment manufacturing declined.
2. The vitality of the main players in the logistics market is enhanced, and the supply chain runs in an orderly manner
First, the vitality of the logistics market has increased, and the activity has picked up significantly. From the perspective of the prosperity index, in February, both the business volume index and the new order index rebounded strongly, and the logistics industry prosperity index rebounded by 5.4 percentage points from the previous month, rising to more than 50%. The eastern, central and western regions have recovered in an all-round way, and most industries have improved simultaneously. Judging from the key survey data, the vitality of the logistics market gradually increased from January to February, the business enthusiasm of enterprises increased significantly, and the main business indicators achieved good growth. The business volume of key enterprises (freight volume, circulation processing volume, and throughput) all increased by more than 16%, and the revenue of logistics business increased by more than 12% year-on-year. From the perspective of different industries, the income growth of supply chain enterprises that provide full logistics services is good, the income of basic logistics service enterprises such as railway transportation, road transportation and warehousing is stable, and freight forwarding, water transportation and other industries are affected by factors such as weakening international external demand Revenue from the corporate logistics business declined.
Second, logistics and transportation are operating in an orderly manner, and all modes of transportation have recovered simultaneously. From January to February, the freight volume turned from a decline in December last year to an increase. Among them, railway freight continued to operate at a high level, expressway truck traffic, civil aviation freight flights, and port container throughput recovered steadily, and the coordinated development of various transportation modes.
The third is to improve the industrial cycle and accelerate the turnover of warehousing and logistics. Since the beginning of this year, the linkage between the upstream and downstream of the supply chain has rebounded, the connection between production and sales has improved, and many industries have entered the stage of destocking driven by demand. Especially since February, the inventory turnover of finished products has accelerated significantly. The monthly increase was 16.5 percentage points, the turnover efficiency of warehousing and logistics was greatly improved, and logistics helped the economic cycle gradually improve.
3. The competition in the logistics industry is fierce, and corporate profitability is still facing challenges
First, the logistics industry is highly competitive. Since the beginning of this year, the pace of competition in the logistics industry has accelerated. According to corporate questionnaires, more than 60% of logistics companies believe that competition in the logistics market is becoming more intense, and the situation of oversupply is serious. Some companies even reduce service prices to occupy more markets. In addition to the continuous price reduction of upstream enterprises, the price level of traditional warehousing and transportation services has generally fallen. In February, the average value of China’s export container comprehensive freight index was 1103.73, down 8.5% month-on-month; China’s coastal (bulk cargo) freight index was 1019.75 points, down 0.3% month-on-month; China’s road logistics freight index was 103.4 points, down 0.58% month-on-month .
Second, the operating pressure of logistics enterprises is still relatively high. This year, logistics companies are still facing greater cost pressures. From January to February, the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.9 percentage points faster than the logistics business income. The cost per hundred yuan of operating income was 93.4 yuan (90.7 yuan in the same period last year), an increase of 3.0 %. From the perspective of the cost structure of key enterprises, affected by factors such as the increase in unstable and uncertain factors in the supply chain, the costs related to the reserve of logistics enterprise management personnel, logistics business planning and management, etc. have all increased, and the growth trend of logistics management costs is particularly prominent, with a year-on-year increase of more than 17%; Affected by high oil prices, fuel costs have also increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of more than 15%; affected by the short-term structural shortage of manpower, labor costs for logistics personnel have also increased, with a year-on-year increase of more than 3%.
Third, the recovery of industry benefits still faces challenges. From the perspective of profitability, although the proportion of loss-making enterprises has decreased, the profit decline has narrowed, and the overall profitability of key enterprises has improved slightly, logistics enterprises still face greater challenges in profitability, and operating profits continue to fall. From January to February, 26% of key logistics companies lost money, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points; operating profit decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, a decrease from December of the previous year. Among them, the profit decline of small and medium-sized logistics companies is particularly obvious. The survey shows that more than 30% of small and medium-sized enterprises have a profit drop of more than 30%.
On the whole, the overall logistics operation is still in the recovery stage from January to February this year. Due to the influence of factors such as the Spring Festival and the new crown epidemic in January, it is in the recovery period of gradual rework in February. There is still a certain gap between the growth level of logistics demand and the normal year. The gender differentiation is obvious, but the recovery is faster compared with the fourth quarter of the previous year. Judging from the later trend, with the effective support of the steady growth policy, the overall demand for logistics is expected to continue to pick up. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index has continued to rise to 57.6%, which is at a relatively high level in the near future. At the same time, nearly 60% of logistics companies will maintain stable investment, and more than 25% of logistics companies plan to increase investment levels, showing that The confidence in the logistics market has been boosted, the willingness of logistics companies to invest is stable and improving, and the recovery momentum of logistics operations will continue to advance. With the further improvement of the level of resumption of production and production, the total social logistics in the first quarter is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 5%.