Original title: Long and short interweaving Soybean mealThe cabinet will be maintained in the mid-term
Extending the time period to more than one year, global food prices are driven by biofuels and the demand for food purchases after the new crown epidemic. The overall price will remain high for a long time, and the price of soybean meal will naturally rise, otherwise there will be arbitrage funds entering the market. Fill up depressions.
Soybean meal prices failed to hit the high point of the year with all their strength in mid-May. After that, the abc small three-wave adjustment mode was started. The main contract 2109 has finally received a certain degree of support at the 3300 yuan/ton round mark, which is expected to usher in a short-term rebound. The price trend of agricultural product futures this year is actually different from before the new crown epidemic. The previous method of focusing on the supply side is temporarily invalid, especially for special varieties such as soybean meal. The author judges that it will remain high in demand, squeezed profits are low, and supply has increased significantly. Under the intertwining of factors, the mid-line is out of the range of oscillating market. In the long-term, it is a high probability event to set a new high driven by the overall price of food.
Sudden increase in supply, passively exhausted inventory
The supply side of soybean meal is mainly to observe the upstreamSoybeansIn the industry, domestic consumption mainly relies on imports from the United States and South America, and Northeast soybeans are basically used for food rather than oil extraction. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported 38.23 million tons of soybeans from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Among them, the import volume in May reached 9.61 million tons, and the pressure on the supply side was greater. From the analysis of shipping schedules of major exporting countries in South America, it is expected that soybean imports will only increase in the next two to three months. Once the harvesting speed in Argentina accelerates, the relevant data is expected to increase significantly on a month-on-month basis. After the South American harvest, the focus of the market will shift to the United States. After all, the proportion of US soybean imports in the first five months has increased from 28% last year to 56% this year. The weight of this factor affecting prices will increase significantly.
US soybeans are still in the sowing period. Although the market expects a large increase in the planting area this year, there are many variables in the weather. The US Department of Agriculture reports that it will also support the prices of export products as usual. In addition, the current oil mills’ squeezing profits have turned into a small loss, but the industry’s operating rate remains high, so companies have passively entered the stage of accumulating inventories.
Strong demand for live pigs to reduce the need to wait
Soybean meal is the most important feed for the pig industry, and the demand situation this year is actually fluctuating. During the Spring Festival, domestic pig breeding was once affected by African swine fever. In January and February, the number of sows and pigs dropped significantly from the previous month. However, after the epidemic eased in April, the relevant data recovered beyond expectations. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of reproductive sows in April increased by 23% and 1.1% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively, maintaining a positive growth for 19 consecutive months, and the number of live pigs has returned to more than 90% of the normal year. However, the price of live pigs plummeted continuously during the strong pig cycle, and the extreme market even triggered a three-level warning of excessive decline of the National Development and Reform Commission. The loss of single pig breeding reached 209 yuan, and the industry’s production capacity will have a sharp decline in the future. It’s just that this result has to be reflected in time at least until the end of the year. There is still room for increase in the number of live pigs, which is a good support for the demand for soybean meal.
Extending the time period to more than one year, global food prices are driven by biofuels and the demand for food purchases after the new crown epidemic. The overall price will remain high for a long time, and the price of soybean meal will naturally rise, otherwise there will be arbitrage funds entering the market. Fill up depressions. In the next five years, the demand for food from biofuels is expected to provide at least an increase of 15 million tons, which is equivalent to adding an Indian market. After a long-term home lockdown, consumers have a strong desire to eat out. This retaliatory increase may take longer than Imagine long.
The operation idea of the box oscillation sustaining interval
From a technical perspective, the K-line chart of the main soybean meal contract 2109 is not optimistic, especially after the weekly K-line hits the new high during the year. The triple top pattern has been fully established. After a short-term rebound, the mid-line test may fall below the previous low of 3249 yuan/ton. The probability of is greater, and the upper limit of the interval oscillation is near the 10-week line of 3550 yuan/ton. In summary, the soybean meal oscillates in the mid-line. It is recommended to control the position to establish a short order when the 2109 contract price returns to around 3500 yuan/ton, and maintain the operation concept of the box interval to enlarge the stop loss appropriately. (Author’s unit: Guanbang Fund)
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