Original title: Manufacturing PMI is above the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months. my country’s economy as a whole maintains recovery. Source: China Economic Net
Manufacturing PMI is above the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months. my country’s economy as a whole maintains a recovery trend
Reporter Meng Ke
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2021, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.3%, which has been above the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has continued to rebound. Some analysts believe that the pressure on manufacturing raw material costs will be further eased.
my country’s manufacturing industry is expanding
According to Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician from the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2021, the manufacturing purchasing manager index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.3% and 52.7%, respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, the same as last month, and the three major indexes were all in the expansion range. It shows that my country’s economy as a whole has maintained a recovery trend, and the level of prosperity has recovered steadily.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the expansion of the manufacturing PMI index in December 2021 has further accelerated; from the perspective of various sub-indices, the reason why the monthly index has improved is mainly due to the rebound in domestic demand. The fall in the prices of raw materials has driven companies to increase inventories, offsetting the impact of domestic sporadic cases on the manufacturing industry.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that although the five major sub-items only have a lower production index than the previous value, and the remaining four sub-items are higher than the previous value, only the production index of the five major sub-items is located in Rong. Above the dead line, the remaining four sub-items are all below the ups and downs line. From this perspective, the production index is still the support item of the monthly manufacturing PMI.
The non-manufacturing business activity index in December 2021 increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, which was higher than the threshold, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing recovery has accelerated. “The strength of the monthly non-manufacturing PMI index was mainly driven by the increased momentum in the service industry. The PMI index performed satisfactorily that month, which eased the market’s concerns about the continued bottoming of the economy to a certain extent.” Zhou Maohua said.
In Zheng Houcheng’s view, as a representative product of high-tech manufacturing, electromechanical products account for 58.0% of exports. High-tech manufacturing is an important direction for my country’s industrial transformation and upgrading. It has strong overseas demand and domestic policy support. Under the background, it is expected that the high-tech manufacturing PMI will continue to be in the high expansion range with a high probability.
The chief FICC analyst of CITIC Securities clearly told the “Securities Daily” reporter, “Some representative industries determine the direction of the manufacturing industry in 2021. For example, the first half of the year continued the two-wheel drive pattern of exports and real estate since the previous year. Overheated. But with the effect of real estate regulation in the middle of the year, the driving force of real estate began to weaken at the end of the second quarter, and gradually transformed into a demand drag item in the third quarter. Simultaneously with the endogenous decline in demand, there are exogenous ones. Raw material supply shocks, occasional epidemics, and flood disturbances. In the fourth quarter, under the government’s series of measures to maintain supply and stabilize prices and promote a “virtuous circle” in the real estate industry, the manufacturing industry has received a certain degree of pressure, whether it is demand expectations or cost pressures. Alleviated, market confidence gradually recovered, and the replenishment cycle started.”
The price index continues to fall
Data show that the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in December 2021 were 48.1% and 45.5%, respectively, which were 4.8 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. They fell for two consecutive months, and both fell to May 2020. Low since. In terms of industry conditions, the two price indices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are both lower than 35.0%. As the prices of some raw materials have fallen, procurement costs have fallen, and companies have accelerated their stocking. The procurement volume index and the raw material inventory index both rose to recent highs, which were 50.8% and 49.2%, respectively, which were significantly higher than 0.6 percentage points and 1.5 points last month. percentage point.
“The purchase price of major raw materials and the ex-factory price both declined compared with the previous value. Among them, the purchase price of major raw materials fell below the prosperity and decline line for the first time in 19 months, while the ex-factory price was below the prosperity and decline line for two consecutive months. It is expected that the PPI in December 2021 is likely to fall year-on-year compared with November.” Zheng Houcheng said that due to the continuous advancement of measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, the price of ferrous metals has been effectively controlled. However, in the context of demand greater than supply, international oil prices The price of non-ferrous metals will likely be supported.
Zhou Maohua said that in December 2021, domestic new orders rose and new export orders fell, reflecting a significant increase in domestic demand; at the same time, the price of major raw materials fell below the dry line that month, and the company’s raw material inventory increased significantly, reflecting that the continued decline in the prices of raw materials and commodities has reduced the company. The cost of production reflects the effects of relief support policies such as domestic commodity supply and price stabilization and financial and tax relief, and manufacturing enterprises have continued to increase their confidence in the economic outlook.
Data show that in December 2021, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises is 51.3%, which is 1.1 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the prosperity level is steadily rising. Among them, the new order index was 50.8% and 51.7%, 1.2 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points higher than last month, indicating that the recent recovery of market demand from large and medium-sized enterprises has accelerated. The PMI of small businesses was 46.5%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level is still weak.
Zhou Maohua believes that the PMI index of large, medium and small manufacturing is clearly differentiated, and the operating activities of large and medium manufacturing enterprises have further improved, but the PMI index of small manufacturing has fallen further, reflecting that the operating conditions of small manufacturing are still difficult.
According to Zheng Hoocheng’s analysis, the manufacturing PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises in December 2021 will both decline from the previous value, but the manufacturing PMI of small enterprises will continue to fall below the decline line, and hit a new low since March 2020, one of the main reasons The epidemic has been repetitive recently. It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue to reduce taxes and fees in the later period to help small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households to relieve their burdens and recover their development. Monetary policy will increase financing support for the real economy and promote small, medium and micro enterprises. Increase financing, expand coverage, and reduce prices. (Securities Daily)
.