Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion Range in September, Experts Predict Continued Economic Stabilization and Improvement
CNR News Beijing, October 1 (Reporter Huang Angjin) – The manufacturing sector in China saw a positive development in September, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) reaching 50.2%, according to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. This marks a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, returning the PMI to the expansion range. Additionally, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index recorded increases of 0.7 percentage points, reaching 51.7% and 52.0%, respectively. All three major indexes were in expansionary ranges, signaling a stabilization and improvement in the economy.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighted the rebound of the manufacturing PMI for four consecutive months, reaching the expansion range for the first time since April. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 saw their PMIs surpass the critical point, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity.
As market demand gradually recovers, manufacturing production activities have accelerated, with the production index and new order index reaching 52.7% and 50.5%, respectively, both increasing from the previous month.
Companies remain optimistic about market expectations, as the expectation index for production and operating activities in September remained at 55.5%, indicating continued prosperity. Notably, industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, automobiles, railways, ships, and aerospace equipment showed high-prosperity expectations, with an index above 60.0%.
Liu Chunsheng, associate professor at the School of International Economics and Trade at the Central University of Finance and Economics, expressed excitement over the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range in September. He noted that this indicates the trend of China’s economy stabilizing and improving, emphasizing the positive impact of macroeconomic policies.
The recovery of the manufacturing industry has also fueled the growth of related service industries, as the non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 51.7%. The construction industry’s business activity index saw a significant rise of 2.4 percentage points to reach 56.2%, while the service industry’s index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.9%. Industries such as water transportation, postal services, telecommunications, and monetary and financial services showed high-prosperity ranges above 55.0%, with growing total business volumes.
Liu Chunsheng explained that the growth of related service industries is driven by the manufacturing sector. He stated, “The recovery of manufacturing has led to the improvement of related services, with the producer service industry showing more prosperity.”
From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index increased to 58.1%, indicating positive expectations for market recovery and development in the service industry. Industries such as railway transportation, postal services, telecommunications, and monetary and financial services displayed high-prosperity expectations above 60.0%, reflecting companies’ optimism about future industry development.
The comprehensive PMI output index for September was 52.0%, signaling a rebound in the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises. Looking ahead, Liu Chunsheng anticipates better performance in the fourth quarter as production and operation enter their peak season, supported by factors such as the domestic National Day Golden Week and Spring Festival, as well as overseas Christmas.
Liu also highlighted the recovery of overseas market demand, as the decline in foreign trade data narrowed in August. He noted that the next stage will continue to support China’s macroeconomic stabilization and improvement, both from the perspective of external circulation (foreign trade) and internal circulation (domestic market).
Overall, the return of the manufacturing PMI to the expansion range signifies positive progress for China’s economy, with experts predicting continued stabilization and improvement in the coming months.