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Market nervousness rises, Shanghai copper inventories are low recently | Manufacturing PMI_Sina Finance_Sina.com

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Market nervousness rises, Shanghai copper inventories are low recently | Manufacturing PMI_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Hehe Futures Author: Hehe Futures

The text of the research report

one,Shanghai CopperTrends and transactions of futures contracts this week

1. Shanghai copper fell this week

2. Shanghai copper transaction this week

From September 13th to September 16th, the total trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 717,000 lots, a decrease of 433,000 lots from last week, and the total open interest was 409,000 lots, which was reduced by 16,000 lots from last week. The main force of Shanghai copper fell, and the main contract The closing price was 61950, down 1.78% from last week’s closing price.

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

1. Macroscopic

In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,625.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 3,228.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3%.

From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 28,256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles was 25,366.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%.

The growth rate of basic living consumption has accelerated, the recovery of service consumption has become more flexible, the income of catering has increased by 12.9% year-on-year, the sales growth of upgraded goods has slowed down, and online retail has maintained a steady upward trend. The year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China After maintaining the upward momentum in July, the growth rate accelerated in August.

In August, the power generation was 824.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the growth rate was 5.4 percentage points faster than the previous month, with an average daily power generation of 26.61 billion kWh. From January to August, the power generation was 5.6 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the global manufacturing PMI in August 2022 was 50.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, a month-on-month decline for three consecutive months, and a new low since July 2020.

In terms of sub-regions, in August, the manufacturing PMIs of Europe and the Americas showed a continuous downward trend, the Asian manufacturing PMIs were unchanged from the previous month, and the African manufacturing PMIs increased from the previous month.

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In August, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.7%, unchanged from the previous month after falling for two consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, the manufacturing PMIs of China and Vietnam increased to varying degrees from the previous month, while the manufacturing PMIs of Japan, South Korea, and India all decreased to varying degrees from the previous month.

The changes in the Asian manufacturing PMI show that the Asian manufacturing industry is showing a trend of slowing down and stabilizing, but it should also be seen that the increasing pressure on global demand contraction has also had an impact on the Asian economic recovery.

The average Asian manufacturing PMI showed a downward trend quarter by quarter. From July to August, the average Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.7%, which was lower than 51.6% in the first quarter and 51% in the second quarter. The new order indexes of China, Japan and South Korea are all below 50%. How to better boost market demand is a key consideration for Asian countries.

In August, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month decline for the seventh consecutive month. The combined geopolitical impact of the epidemic has accelerated the economic downturn in Europe. Judging from the overall trend of European manufacturing PMI, European manufacturing is facing continuous downward pressure.

The manufacturing PMI in the Americas was 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month decline for three consecutive months. The growth rate of the manufacturing industry in the Americas continued to slow down. Changes in comprehensive data show that the recovery trend of the American manufacturing industry is weakening, and the impact of the continuous interest rate hike in the United States on the economy of the United States and even the Americas is gradually emerging.

In terms of the epidemic, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference on the same day: Last week, the number of new crown deaths reported by countries was the lowest since March 2020, and we are in an unprecedented situation in terms of ending the new crown pandemic. Dominance.

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While the global weekly death toll from COVID-19 has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, new waves of infections are expected to emerge in the future, and countries must remain vigilant and prepare for any possible outbreak risks.

According to Worldometers real-time statistics, as of 7:00 on September 16, Beijing time, there were more than 602.52 million confirmed cases of new coronavirus overseas and more than 6.51 million deaths. One-sixth of the confirmed cases occurred in the United States, which has more than 97.39 million confirmed cases of the new coronavirus and 1.078 million deaths.

2. The low inventory price of refined copper is supported, and the real estate data on the demand side is not optimistic

Social inventory fell to 71,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 tons. Inventory in Shanghai first decreased and then increased. The typhoon led to the delayed arrival of imported copper in Hong Kong. After the copper price stopped falling and rebounded, the downstream actively produced and replenished the inventory before the Mid-Autumn Festival.

The Chengdu-Chongqing region saw an increase in shipments from smelters due to the lifting of power curbs, while the Tianjin region saw a decrease in shipments due to the Chifeng epidemic. Inventories in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell by 23,000 tons to 119,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 154,000 tons. In recent weeks, the import window has continued to open, and importers are actively moving goods from the bonded area to the territory.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9,080.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. From January to August, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 878.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, of which the sales area of ​​residential buildings decreased by 26.8%. The sales of commercial housing was 8,587 billion yuan, down 27.9%, of which the sales of residential buildings fell by 30.3%.

Third, the market outlook research and judgment

On the macro level, in general, my country’s national economy withstood the impact of a variety of unexpected factors in August and continued to recover and develop, with positive changes in major indicators. However, it should also be noted that the international environment is still complex and severe, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is still not solid.

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The US CPI data in August shows that US inflation is still rising. Although the year-on-year CPI growth rate has fallen slightly, the year-on-year CPI and core CPI are still much higher than the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. The Fed’s September rate hike is expected to increase by 75 basis points It is expected that U.S. bond yields will continue to soar.

Fundamentally, China‘s copper import demand still maintains a steady growth, the traditional consumption peak season is coming, the domestic spot market is more willing to buy at bargain prices, and the inventory is low, and the market is nervous.

The real estate market is showing a downward trend and is currently in the bottom-building stage. Although there have been some real estate project delivery problems recently, from a national perspective, most of the construction period is more than two years, and the construction progress of real estate development projects close to the delivery period has remained stable. The overall risk is manageable.

From the disk, the lowest point in mid-July reached 53300. Later, with the release of negative sentiment, the oversold rebounded, and a variety of good news appeared. Copper prices rebounded to around 63000. From a spatial perspective, this rebound was close to a half of the decline. At the same time, it was close to the 60 moving average. There is pressure near this moving average, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60000-64000.

4. Trading strategy

Neutral is recommended.

Risk factors:U.S. inflation data remains high, and attention is paid to the rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

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