Source: Everbright Futures Author: Everbright Futures
Research report text
1. Research viewpoint
On Thursday, ICE US cotton fell 1.17% to close at 80.87 cents/lb.Zheng MianCF301 rose 0.22% to close at 13,690 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Chinese cotton price index was 14,914 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. Ton. In the international market, USDA announced the latest weekly report on US cotton exports. As of December 1, the net sales of US upland cotton in the week were 7,400 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from last week, and 32,000 tons of upland cotton were shipped, up 1% month-on-month. Although the cotton export data has improved from the previous month, it is still poor year-on-year, which is a drag on US cotton prices.
In the domestic market, the recent start-up rate of textile mills has been on the rise, and market sentiment has gradually picked up. Some import and export companies said that the recent inquiries and orders for imported cotton yarns have improved, and the demand side is gradually recovering. However, the export of cotton textile products currently Export sales are poor, and the demand-side improvement is expected to be limited. This round of rebound should not be overly optimistic. It is expected that the short-term rebound will be dominated by shocks. Follow-up will pay attention to the USDA monthly report this weekend and the improvement of the demand side.
Due to concerns about the weather in Brazil and India, the price of raw sugar rose, and the main contract closed at 19.71 cents/lb. There will be more sugar mills in China starting to squeeze this week, and it is expected to reach the peak of crushing in mid-December. The supply is sufficient, the price of old sugar is 5480~5500 yuan/ton, and the price of new sugar is 5550~5740 yuan/ton, which is slightly lowered. The weather in domestic production areas is good, which is good for harvesting. New sugars are coming into the market one after another, and the supply is sufficient, and the current terminal stocking is mainly based on rigid demand.
The May contract on the disk is temporarily treated in the range of 5,500-5,750 yuan/ton, waiting for the guidance of raw sugar. It is expected that with the strengthening of raw sugar, it is expected to recover slightly in the short term, but the final upward height depends on the market’s understanding of consumption recovery.
2. Daily data monitoring
3. Market information
1. On December 8, there were 955 cotton futures warehouse receipts, and 443 effective forecasts, totaling 1398, an increase of 106 from the previous trading day.
2. Cotton prices in various regions in China on December 8: Xinjiang 14,630 yuan/ton, Henan 14,839 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 15,018 yuan/ton, Hubei 14,788 yuan/ton.
3. On December 8, China‘s yarn load index was 45.2, up 0.4 from the previous day; China‘s yarn inventory index was 34.4, down 0.3 from the previous day; China‘s gray fabric load index was 44.1, up 0.9 from the previous day; China‘s gray cloth inventory index was 36.7, unchanged from the previous day.
4. The domestic spot price of white sugar on December 8: Nanning 5,615 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and Liuzhou 5,575 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.
5. On December 8, the number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts was 1,132, and the effective forecast was 1,697, totaling 2,829.
4. Chart analysis
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