MILANO – Markets are preparing to restart trading after receiving assurances from the governor of the United States at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell has spoken openly about the possibility of starting to reduce the stimulus to the economy (the Fed buys 120 billion securities a month) by the end of the year, but on the other hand he remarked that the closing of the taps does not mean approaching the rate hike and that caution will be needed in assessing the achievement of the full employment objectives, also in consideration of the unknowns related to the Delta variant.
Precisely these are the greatest source of concern for observers, at the gates of a month – September – which has historically been difficult for the financial markets, which, moreover, come to us with many indices at historic highs, starting with Wall Street. In recent weeks, signs of a physiological slowdown in the economic rebound have emerged, such as the Ifo index on the confidence of German businesses, the confidence indicators of businesses and households in Italy, just to name a few. Nothing alarming, analysts point out, but it is normal that after the great spring rush the primary sector now needs to take a breather, in addition to the fact that bottlenecks and tensions remain on raw materials that are making supplies difficult in many supply chains. . For Italy, in any case, the assessment of a rebound greater than + 5% remains widely shared, which according to some members of the government, such as Minister Giorgetti, could reach + 6%.
Several economic data will arrive this week that can affect the markets, starting on Monday 30th with the Eurozone Economic Confidence Index and German inflation in August. But investors’ eyes are mainly focused on the data of the manufacturing SMEs of Japan, China, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain and the Eurozone, in addition to the ADP estimate of new employees in the private sector in the United States, which arrive on Wednesday 1 September. And again on the services and composite SMEs of China, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, the Eurozone, as well as the SME Markit services and the ISM non-manufacturing index in the States scheduled for Friday. Which is also the day of the US employment report – released as usual on the first useful Friday of the month following the survey – a decidedly expected macroeconomic appointment to take the pulse of the health of the stars and stripes economy. The data on new non-agricultural employees, in fact, takes a 360-degree photograph of the American job market, with unemployment, new employees, hourly wages and labor costs According to reports from the US Department of Labor, the US economy recorded an increase of 943,000 new non-agricultural jobs in July. The figure was higher than the consensus of analysts who estimated an increase of about 870 thousand places. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 5.4% from 5.9% the previous month. The Department of Labor has revised upwards the data for June (938 thousand of jobs created compared to 850 thousand) and May (614 thousand from 583 thousand).
On the front of Pmi indices, the Eurozone economy marked the pace in August, after the exploit of the summer months, which had seen the Old Continent forcefully ride the wave of post-Covid reopening. According to preliminary estimates by Ihs Markit, the manufacturing PMI index fell in August to 61.5 points from the previous 62.8, resulting in less than the 62 points expected by analysts. The premise of the experts is that in any case the EU maintains “exceptional” growth, even if the SMEs for services slowed down as well (at 59.7 points from the previous 59.8). The slowdown is mainly due to the spread of the Delta variant and delays in the distribution chain, which have continued to cause damage, often leaving companies unable to meet demand and driving up purchase prices. It is now a question of whether these estimates will be confirmed. With the vaccination campaigns going on and the hypothesis of the third dose already in the autumn plans of many countries (in Israel mass vaccination with the third dose has already started, in the USA the process for the ok has begun of the FDA and France announced that from 13 September a new vaccination will be made to fragile patients) the game of recovery is still open. And the result is not obvious. Among other things, on 1 September in conjunction with the manufacturing SMEs, theItaly will publish data on unemployment.
Among the other expected appointments, Wednesday is the OPEC plus meeting, which will have to decide whether to modify or confirm the monthly increase of 400,000 barrels per day. The markets then look to the crisis in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops and the massacre in Kabul on Thursday, with the attacks claimed by Isis K. ECB, the consolidated balance sheet will be published on Tuesday, and the Eurozone bank interest rate statistics on Wednesday.
Here are the main events scheduled in the Ansa agenda
MONDAY 30
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MADRID 09:00 am Spain, August inflation
ROME – Ita headquarters 10:30 am New union-Ita meeting
ROME 12:30 pm The Minister of Infrastructure and Sustainable Transport Enrico Giovannini sees the trade unions on the guidelines for Tpl in a conference call
BERLIN 2.00 pm Germany, August inflation
NEW YORK ore 16:00
USA, July home sales data released
GUBBIO Prima ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promossa da The Economy of Francesco
TUESDAY 31
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TOKIO 01:45 am Japan, data on industrial production for July
BEIJING 03:00 China, manufacturing PMI for August
PARIS 08:45 am France, August inflation
BERLIN 09:45 am Germany, August unemployment rate
ROME 10:00 am Istat releases data on the quarterly income statements for the second quarter of 2021
ROME – Live Streaming at 10:30 am Forum “The Beautiful Energy of Italy” scheduled as part of the initiatives to approach the Italian Pavilion at Expo Dubai, with Luigi Di Maio, Minister of Foreign Affairs Glisenti, Commissioner General for the participation of Italy at Expo 2020 Dubai Venturini, CEO EnelX, Descalzi, CEO Eni, Caio, CEO Saipem, Alverà, CEO Snam
BRUSSELS 11.00 am EU, release of August inflation data
ROME 11:00 Istat releases provisional data on consumer prices for August 2021
ROME 12:00 Istat releases data on producer prices for industry, construction and services for July
NEW YORK 4pm USA, August Consumer Confidence
GUBBIO Prima ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promossa da The Economy of Francesco.
ROME Bank of Italy Statistics on “Monthly Tables of Banks and Financial Institutions: Loans and Funding by Sectors and Territories”
WEDNESDAY 1
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BRUSSELS 09:45 am EU, manufacturing PMI from France, Germany and Eurozone
ROME 10:00 Istat releases the provisional estimate of the data on employed and unemployed for July 2021
ROME 11:00 Istat disseminates data on the turnover of services, for the second second quarter of 2021 (without briefing)
FRANKFURT 2.00 pm EU, speech by Weidmann (ECB) at the Bundesbank symposium
NEW YORK 4:00 pm USA, manufacturing ISM in August
GUBBIO Prima ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promossa da The Economy of Francesco
VIENNA Austria, Meeting OPEC
THURSDAY 2
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BRUSSELS 11 am EU, July producer prices
NEW YORK 2:30 pm USA, New requests for subsidies
PARMA – Cibus, Pietro Barilla room 2.30 pm Mutti presents its Environmental Report to Cibus. The presentation was attended by the CEO of Mutti, Francesco Mutti, the director of agricultural services of the company, Ugo Peruch, the industrial director, Giorgio Lecchi, the head of Waters and Projects in the Territory of WWF Italy, Andrea Agapito Ludovici, and the CEO of e-Novia Vincenzo Russi
NEW YORK 4:00 pm USA, July factory orders
ROME Bank of Italy statistics on “Ita-coin”.
GUBBIO Fourth day of the ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promoted by The Economy of Francesco
FRIDAY 3
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BRUSSELS 09:45 am EU, SME services (France, Germany, Eurozone) in August
BRUSSELS at 11:00 EU, Retail sales m / m in July
CERNOBBIO (CO) 8.45 am Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow for competitive strategies”. With, among others Evans (President Alibaba), Tshisekedi (President of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the African Union), Dbeibeh, (Prime Minister of Libya), Cottarelli (Director of the Observatory on Italian Public Accounts), Stiglitz, Gianotti (Director General of the CERN), Domenico Siniscalco (President of the Council for Relations between Italy and the United States and Ad Morgan Stanley). In video link the Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, Anthony S. Fauci (VC), Bancel (Chief Executive Officer of Moderna); Gabriel (European Commissioner for Innovation)
CERNOBBIO (CO) 11.45 am Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow for competitive strategies”. Press conference for the presentation of the research “Digitization and sustainability for the recovery of Italy”, carried out in collaboration with Microsoft Italy
CERNOBBIO (CO) 2.30 pm Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow for competitive strategies” Press conference to present the research “From NIMBY to PIMBY: Circular economy as a driving force for the ecological and sustainable transition of the country and its territories” in collaboration with A2A
CERNOBBIO (CO) 16.50 Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow for competitive strategies”. Press conference to present the “Everything-as-a-Service” research carried out in collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise Italia
NEW YORK 2:00 pm USA, August unemployment rate
GUBBIO ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promossa da The Economy of Francesco
SATURDAY 4
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CERNOBBIO (CO) 8.45 am Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow”. Message from the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella. With, among others, Colao, Minister of Technological Innovation and Digital Transition; Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Relaunch of France; Calviño, Vice President of the Spanish Government and Minister for Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation of the Government; Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, Monti, President of Bocconi University, Bonetti, Minister for Equal Opportunities and the Family, Cingolani, Minister of Ecological Transition, Cartabia, Minister of Justice
CERNOBBIO (CO) 10.45 am Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow. Press conference for the presentation of the research” The European Governance of the Energy Transition “- carried out in collaboration with Enel and with the scientific contribution of the Enel Foundation
CERNOBBIO (CO) 11.45 am Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow. Press conference with the Minister of Economy, Finance and Relaunch of France Bruno Le Maire
CERNOBBIO (CO) 2.30 pm Ambrosetti Forum “The scenario of today and tomorrow. Press conference for the presentation of the research” The data Economy in Italy and the role of the Cloud for the digital transition “carried out on behalf of Tim
GUBBIO ‘International Summer School’ ‘Economics in the age of the Common’ promossa da The Economy of Francesco
.