MILANO – Sigh of relief for the markets during the night between Saturday and Sunday, with the agreement made on the ceiling of the American debt to dispel the specter of a traumatic default and contain public spending. President Joe Biden and the Republican opposition that controls the House reached a compromise in principle late Saturday evening that suspends the debt ceiling for two years. The agreement came at the end of a marathon of high-tension negotiations, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who had indicated the date of June 5 as the one on which the money to meet federal commitments would run out.
Financial markets had shown signs of growing nervousness as the deadline approached. In 2011, only the risk of default, exorcised at the last minute, had cost the downgrading of US bond ratings by S&P and a 20% fall in the stock market. This time it was Fitch who threatened the step, which at this point should be averted: the House should ratify the agreement in the first few days of the week, before moving on to the Senate. According to an analysis of the New York Times, the impact over ten years of the main measures included in the agreement could be a reduction in spending equal to 650 billion dollars, a result considered modest. From what emerged, the agreement, among the individual provisions, provides for new work requirements and time limits for some social assistance programs such as food stamps, a goal dear to the Republicans. In addition, some unspent anti-Covid funds are canceled and an allocation for the federal tax authorities is reduced by 10 billion to 70 billion, intended to strengthen the hunt for tax evasion. Finally, accelerations and simplifications aimed at accelerating the granting of environmental permits to energy projects are triggered.
The economic week is off to a sluggish start with US markets closed for Memorial Day on Monday and those in Britain shut down for the Spring Bank Holiday. Investors’ attention is then turned, on Thursday, to inflation in the euro area, which is expected to decelerate further, due to the reduction in energy and food prices. The figure to watch more carefully is the ‘core’ one, expected to marginally slow down (5.5% from 5.6%). Finally, Friday’s numbers on the stars and stripes job market should be monitored, expected to deteriorate slightly compared to the previous month.
Here are the main events on the breaking latest news agenda
MONDAY 29 MAY
– Istat: non-EU foreign trade in April.
– Federmeccanica: press conference in Rome to present the 166th Economic Survey.
– Gdf: ceremony in Rome for the assumption of the position of Commander General of the Guardia di Finanza of Gen. CA Andrea De Gennaro. Participating, among others, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy and Finance.
– Innovation: in Milan “Pact for innovation Summit”.
Among others, Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy; Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy and Finance; Orazio Schillaci, Minister of Health; Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda.
– Tourism: the third year of the “Communication, media and tourism” research in Milan. With Minister Daniela Santanchè.
– Work: meeting in Milan between Marina Elvira Calderone, minister of labor and social policies, and Alessandro Spada, president of Assolombarda, to discuss some of the strategic issues for local businesses.
– Assosim: 2023 annual meeting in Milan “Competitiveness of Italian markets”. Participating, among others, Marco Ventoruzzo, President of Assosim; Federico Freni, MEF undersecretary; Paolo Savona, president of Consob
TUESDAY 30 MAY
– Government bonds: auction of 5 and 10 year BTPs and CcTeu for a maximum amount of 11 billion.
– Istat: production prices of industry and construction in April; industry turnover in March.
– Government: meets trade unions and trade associations at Palazzo Chigi to discuss institutional reforms, fiscal delegation, inflation, safety at work, pensions and productivity.
– Energy: in Rome event “Energy for Italy and the EU: the sources and rules of the energy market”, organized by Withub and the Art.49 Foundation. Participating, among others, Antonio Gozzi, president of Duferco, Federacciai and Interconnector Energy Italia; Paolo Gallo, CEO of Italgas; Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Minister of the Environment and Energy Security; Antonio Tajani, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister; Stefano Besseghini, president of Arera.
– Event of the National Consortium of Used Oils and Il Sole 24 Ore for the presentation of the 2022 Sustainability Report in Rome.
Participants, among others, Stefano Besseghini, president of Arera; Carlo Calenda, action secretary; Stefano Ciafani, national president of Legambiente.
– Abi: in Rome in the Senate, the Industry, Commerce, Tourism, Agriculture and Agri-Food Production Commission. Hearing of the ABI on delegation to the Government regarding the revision of the system of incentives for companies.
– Abi: in Rome, council with the EU Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni.
– Snam Foundation, Occorsio Foundation and Forestami event: in Milan “Environmental justice: a story, a challenge. Regenerative memory and urban regeneration”.
– Sea and easyJet event for the inauguration of Terminal 2 at Malpensa (Va).
– Commerce: ‘Awards’ event in Milan to celebrate the small shops most loved by consumers and which represent the excellence of proximity commerce in Italy, organized by American Express and Sda Bocconi.
– Acc: at Pas de Calais (Lille) inauguration of the gigafactory with C. Tavares, J. Elkann, the Minister of Enterprise Urso, the French Minister of the Economy Le Maire, the German Minister of Transport Wissing, the CEO of Mercedes Kallenius and the CEO of TotalEnergies Pouyannè.
– Japan: unemployment rate in April.
– Spain: inflation in May.
– Eurozone: confidence in services, consumers and industry in May; economic confidence index in May.
– Usa: house price index in March; consumer confidence in May.
WEDNESDAY 31 MAY
– Istat: 1st quarter income statements; consumer prices in May; turnover of services I quarter.
– Bank of Italy: in Rome on the occasion of the publication of the Bank of Italy’s annual report on 2022, final considerations by Governor Ignazio Visco.
– Environment: in Rome Kyoto Club, conference ‘Revisions of the Pnrr and Pniec: opportunities’ and proposals with the scientific director of the Kyoto Club, Silvestrini; the president of the Productive Activities Commission of the Chamber, Gusmeroli; the president of the Commission for social affairs, health, work of the Senate, Zaffini. Expected speech by Minister Pichetto Fratin.
– MSD: press conference in Rome with the Ministers of Enterprise and Health, Urso and Schillaci; the charge d’affaires of the US embassy, Crowley; the president of the Lazio Region, Rocca and the CEO of Merck, Davis.
– Energy: conference in Rome for the 90th anniversary of Staffetta Quotidiana, with Paolo Arrigoni (Gse), Stefano Besseghini (Arera), Gilberto Dialuce (Enea), Nicola Monti (Edison), Stefano Venier (Snam).
– European Conference of Engineering and Architecture in Rome.
– Industry: conference in Milan to present the report “Ingenium – The potential of Italian capital goods on the international scene” organized by the Confindustria Study Center and Federmacchine. Taking part, among others, Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy; Barbara Beltrame, Confindustria vice president for internationalisation.
– Assembly of Assobiotec-Federchimica: event in Milan “Building the Italy of tomorrow: the road to biotech”.
Among others, Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy; Fabrizio Greco, president of Federchimica Assobiotec.
– Japan: industrial production and retail sales in April; household confidence in May.
– China: PMI manufacturing, composite, services in May.
– Germany: import prices in April; unemployment rate and inflation in May.
– France: final quarterly GDP; inflation in May.
– Usa: PMI (Chicago) in May.
– ECB: publication of the Financial Stability Review, press conference by De Guindos.
– ECB: intervention by President Lagarde in Frankfurt at the Q&A session with the finalist high school students of the Generation Euro prize.
THURSDAY 1 JUNE
– Istat: employed and unemployed in April.
– Car: the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport communicates the data relating to the month of May on registrations.
– Economy Festival: in Turin ‘Europe, state aid and global competition’, with Monti and the vice-president of the EU Commission Vestager (linked); inauguration of the Festival of Economics with Boeri, Cipolletta, Cirio, Garibaldi, Laterza and Lo Russo; Boeri panel with Spence; ‘Globalization: An Entrepreneur’s Vision’, with J. Elkann; survey of Damanti and Pagnoncelli.
– Japan: Caixin manufacturing PMI in May.
– Germany: retail sales in April.
– Eurozone, Germany, Italy, UK: manufacturing PMI in May.
– EU: inflation in May.
– Usa: new jobs in May; grant applications; markit final manufacturing PMI in May; expenses under construction in April; Ism manufacturing index in May.
– ECB: President Lagarde speaks at the conference organized by German banks in Hanover.
– ECB: publishes the minutes of the meeting of 3-4 May 2023.
– IMF: in Washington conference on the challenges for the financial sector organized by the World Bank and the IMF, speech by the President of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, Enria.
FRIDAY 2 JUNE
– Festival of Economics: in Turin with Cassese; the EU commissioner Schmit and the Nobel D. Card.
– Borsa Italiana: annual meeting with the financial market in Milan.
– France: industrial production in April.
– Usa: unemployment rate in May.
– Gb: revisione rating Fitch.
– France: S&P rating review.
– Germania: revisione rating Dbrs.
SATURDAY JUNE 3rd
– Festival of Economics: in Turin with the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco; Nobel laureate J. Angrist; the minister for the South Fitto.
SUNDAY 4 JUNE
– Economy Festival: in Turin event “What does it mean to rethink globalization in finance?”, organized by: Editori Glf Laterza, with the president of Abi Patuelli; the president of the Constitutional Court, Sciarra; “How businesses are financed. The single capital market and other answers” organized by Editori Glg Laterza, with the general director of Abi Sabatini.
– Petrolio: meeting Opec+