BTP-Bund spreads under control, in a context where the markets are filled with optimism, despite the most ominous forecasts. On the other hand, the economy appears much better than expected and, at the same time, we hope for a rapid drop in inflation. This is what emerges from the January survey conducted by Assiom Forex among its associates in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor.
The Assiom Forex survey: focus spread
During the month, says the survey, the number of those expecting increases in the coming months rose to 46% from 44% a month ago with a 5% who expect double-digit earnings.
Those who instead envisage reductions drop from 22% to 16%, while it goes up 38% from 34% of one month the percentage of those who expect stable markets, a definition that contemplates variations of a maximum of 3% in both directions.
E how will the spread go?
The better-than-expected resilience recorded over the last few months should also continue over the next few months.
Circa 80% of operatorsin fact believes that the differential with respect to the 10-year Bund will remain below 200 pointsa marked improvement from 51% a month ago.
In particular for 64% the spread will remain in the range between 150 and 200 points while for 14% it will drop between 100 and 150 points.
And a super-optimistic 2% believe the differential could even go below 100 points.
“GDP growth higher than expected and recovery of pre-pandemic levels in various economic activities – explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – they favor the return of foreign investors in financial investments and in the real economy. A positive picture, which also benefits from the differential between Btp and Bund, expected in a range between the 150 and 250 points between now and the end of the summer“.
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The survey also shows that the euro’s upward trend is expected to continue in the coming months.
Indeed, according to 49% of the operators who took part in the survey, the euro will gain further ground after the ECB has decided to raise rates further.
So 46% of operators see the euro up with another 3% while the sample of those aiming at a slowdown in the euro after the increases in recent months dropped from 12% to 9%.
Finally, for 42% (from the previous 48%) the euro and the dollar will continue to cross over at current levels.