The Ministry of Economy and Finance (Mef) has recently published the update note of the document on economy and finance (No Def) document that reviews and integrates the various macroeconomic public finance forecasts approved on 28 September last. In detail, the Council of Ministers for 2023 has allocated approximately 21 billion euros for measures to combat the increase in energy costs, which also results in the surge in inflation. We recall that to these resources are added about 9 billion deriving from the so-called extra revenue of 2022.
Deficit / GDP ratio
In the figure we see the deficit / GDP ratio and in particular in blue that tendentialwhile in red we have that programmatic. As the Mazziero Research, from the graph it is possible to notice the entity of the greater deficit after the revision of NaDEF 2022.
The new GDP estimate for the whole of 2022
Istat recently published the data relating to the GDP for the 3rd quarter, a value which stood at + 0.5%. After the publication of this data, Mazziero Research estimates one growth of + 3.9% for the GDP of the whole of 2022, “A value that would be reached even with a flat 4th quarter”. If this data were to be confirmed, this result “would also provide a positive impact on the 2023 GDP” which Mazziero now estimates at + 0.8%.
In the graph below we see the trend of the estimates on GDP elaborated by Mazziero Research which highlight the sharp decline in GDP which went from + 6.7% achieved in 2021 to + 0.8% growth estimated for next year. .
Public debt seen in decline
“Our estimates indicate a further one for the month of September decline in public debt to 2,735 billion, down from the previous 2,758 billion ”, comments Mazziero Research. “A debt of between 2,708 and 2,741 is expected by the end of the year, although it will probably have to be revised upwards due to budget variances to cope with expensive energy.”
The graph below shows the official data published by the Bank of Italy with a red line, while the gray dotted line represents the values estimated by Mazziero Research. In particular, the estimates foresee a slight increase in public debt for the month of October, and then return to decline in the months of November and December.
The official figure of the September GDP will be published on November 15, but in the meantime Mazziero estimates with a confidence interval of 95% a September GDP included in the 2.727 – 2.743 billion euro range.
Rating from agencies
After the recent reviews of the rating by Moody’s which brought the outlook from stable to negative and Standard & Poor’s from positive to stable, the update of the rating of another major agency is scheduled for November 18. rating: Fitch, which in May of this year had confirmed the BBB rating with a stable outlook for Italy