Summary
[Essence of the morning meeting: Positive signals appear! Historical data tells you that the A-share market has a high probability of rising in February]Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the current market trend is difficult to analyze with technology, and it is necessary to pay attention to the stabilization of emotions. The positive aspect is that there has been an increase in stable voices recently, and institutions have increased their holdings of their own funds, which is a good signal for the current market. On the whole, opportunities are falling and risks are rising. We still have to maintain our strength and look for certain opportunities amid uncertainty.
Looking back on the A-share market on Thursday, the A-share market ended in dismal again. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened mixed. At the beginning of the session, the stock index fluctuated and fell in a consistent manner. During the session, it dived for a while. Under the support of the big financial market, the stock index once bottomed and reversed. However, the stock index fell again in the afternoon, and it was hovering at a low level, and finally the three major indexes closed in long-yin.
asHaitong SecuritiesAs stated, the market has a globalcurrencyAusterity fears, and a general slump in global stock markets have been the main reasons for the recent dismal,The reaction of the domestic market is more based on collective pessimism on the emotional side. At the same time, the fall of the Spring Festival holiday and the shrinking trading have also reduced the market’s bullish sentiment.。
On the other hand, my country’s overall tone of credit and currency has not changed, and there is ample room for stimulus policies.Patience and regaining confidence may be what we should be doing now.OperationallyIt is recommended to avoid excessive pessimism, and rationally hold stocks to look forward to the recovery of the market after the holiday, move less and see more, try to lay out defensive plates, and avoid blindly bottom-hunting.
From a technical point of view, DongguansecuritiesIt is pointed out that the market on Thursday was affected by the Fed meeting and adjusted again, but the amount of energy was reduced. Considering that long and short funds were more cautious before the holiday,The market trend still needs to wait and see. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and organize, and pay attention to the rhythm of plate rotation and changes in volume and energy.. In operation, it is recommended to pay attention to financial,food and drink, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As far as the market outlook is concerned,Zhongtai SecuritiesIt is pointed out that the current market trend is difficult to analyze with technology, and it is necessary to pay attention to the stabilization of the emotional side. The positive aspect is that,Recently, stable voices have increased, and institutions have appeared to increase their holdingsfundphenomenon, which is a good signal for the current market. in summary,Opportunities fall and risks rise. We still have to keep our minds and look for certain opportunities amid uncertainty.。
Shanxi Securitiesmentioned,Still more optimistic about the follow-up performance of the A-share marketOn the one hand, my country’s monetary policy returned to normalization earlier after the epidemic, and the bubbles in the stock market were limited, especially after the collapse of the group stocks in early 2021,The bubble in the consumer sector that continues to adjust has been fully squeezed, the overall valuation is at a reasonable level, and the valuation of some sub-sectors is at a historically low level.
On the other hand, the policy difference between being loose inside and outside tight is already a clear-cut way to play, and the domestic policy environment is better. In addition, overseas funds tend to increase their holdings of domestic assets, which is expected to increase the amount of energy in the market. A balanced mind is recommended.dip layoutperformanceThe sectors such as home appliances, pharmaceuticals and biology, defense and military industry, and social services, which are highly certain, have high industrial prosperity, and have relatively large room for repair, will wait for the opportunity brought by the marginal recovery of market sentiment after the year.。
Founder SecuritiesExpress,In terms of the reasons for the market correction, the current domestic liquidity environment is loose and friendly, various policies to stabilize growth continue to exert force, and there are no obvious negative and negative events. The direct trigger for the recent market adjustment may be that market investors are worried that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, triggering a global liquidity crunch, which in turn affects the A-share market.
The agency further analyzes, in the short term, we believe thatAt present, the adjustment of the A-share market is coming to an end, and the market conditions in February after the Spring Festival are very worth looking forward to.First, the current market adjustment rate has been relatively sufficient; second, the current policy measures and environment are very friendly to the market; third, from the perspective of statistical laws, the A-share market has a high probability of rising in February。
Huatai Securitiespointed out,Short-term disturbances do not change the medium and long-term positive trend of A shares. 1) Data analysis: whether it is a horizontal comparison of stock and bond yields, a vertical calculation of the quantiles of equity risk premiums, or the calculation of the statistical laws of historical calendar effects before and after the Spring Festival, all data are displayed.A shares are currently cost-effective, and there is a high probability that they will be repaired after the holiday。
2) Logical deduction: Under the overweight policy of stabilizing growth,A shares are expected to gradually usher in the bottom of valuation, bottom of sentiment and bottom of profitabilityIn the second half of the year, the growth rate of A-share earnings is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, further supporting the trend recovery of A-shares.
3) Structural foundation:The transformation of China’s macro, meso and micro levels supports the medium and long-term slow bull trend of A shares。
macroscopically,CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that the short-term adjustment of the A-share market deviates from the trend of domestic monetary easing, and external changes such as the Fed’s easing exit will not restrict it.”I am the main“The domestic policy style does not change the long-term trend of foreign investment in allocating A shares.
Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market also deviates from the fundamental trend supported by the policy. The time when the downward pressure on the domestic economic growth rate is the greatest has passed. After the currency’s advance force exceeds expectations, the relay of other ministries, commissions and localities is expected to form a policy synergy.“Policy bottom” has been clarified。
Finally, the Fed’s policy exit path in the first half of the year has been clarified, and the sensitivity of US stocks and US bonds has been reduced after the full response in the early stage.It is expected that the actual risk of overseas markets during the long holiday is not too big。
In short, under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”,The overshoot of A shares has brought about a better buying point for the first half of the market。
In terms of operation strategy, Yuekaisecuritiesmentioned,Investors should “look ahead to the future”. Under the theme of “I am the main force”, stable growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is easy money or easy credit, the policy to support the economy is worth looking forward to. As for the market outlook, the pre-holiday market is chasing certainty, and the blue-chip performance of large-cap stocks outperforms small and medium-sized caps.After the holiday, policy expectations have resumed, and the market has turned to high flexibility.It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main line of the market, and it is expected that a wave of large-cap stocks will be the first to start the market.。
In terms of allocation ideas, firstly, we pay attention to the performance of large-cap stocks in the near future. Large-cap stocks have a strong demand for periodic reverse switching.Focus on the main line of stable growth and low valuation, real estate, building materials, home appliances, etc. in infrastructure and real estate chains, as well as leisure services that expand domestic demand,food and drinkand other consumer industries。
Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized caps throughout the year. The marginal change at the denominator end this year supports the trend of small and medium-cap stocks. In the stage of stable growth and effective growth, focus on the investment direction that is dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth.Energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development。
(Article Source:Eastern FortuneResearch center)
(Editor in charge: 19)