Looking back on the A-share market on Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher across the board. The stock index fluctuated repeatedly at the beginning of the session, and then fell rapidly during the session.Shanghai Indexre-turned red, while the Shenzhen Component Index andGEM refers toAlso close to the red plate.
asSoochow Securitiessaid,After A-shares experienced a round of rebound, the market began to enter weak shocks, and the disk style switched quicklyOn Monday, the weaker market weight of blue chips is related to the reduction of northbound funds. At the same time, small-cap stocks are significantly stronger than large-cap stocks, which is related to the current sluggish public offering sales and low institutional participation. On the contrary, hot money participationthemeVery active, but to participate in this kind of hype, you must step on the rhythm, and don’t fight.
From a technical point of view,Central China SecuritiesIt is believed that on Monday, the A-share market first fell and then rose, and the stock index fluctuated in a narrow range around 3150 points throughout the day. The current average price-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 12.69 times and 37.33 times, respectively, below the median level in the past three years; the trading volume of the two markets on Monday was 859.7 billion yuan, the median of the average daily trading volume in the past three years. area.
As far as the market outlook is concerned,Orient Securitiespointed out,In 2022, it is difficult to have a style or a certain track throughout the year. The high and low rotation of different industries and investment themes will be the main theme of the year.Superimposed this year, the overall A-shares have fallen significantly, and the mainstream capital’s idea of oversold and rebound has accelerated the rotation of industries and themes.
Previously, AijiansecuritiesIt is mentioned that the demand for the return of the domestic market’s own valuation has gone out of a relatively independent rebound trend on the basis of a high safety margin, which is in line with our forecast.Of course, after continuous rebounds, it is expected that the pace of future rebounds will slow down, and short-term shocks will appear. After all, overseas markets and geopolitical conflicts are still unstable, and there is no obvious incremental capital in the market, and the characteristics of the stock game remain unchanged.
Therefore, the agency further analyzes and strengthens the current trading strategy,Grasp the rotation of opportunities to stabilize growth, promote consumption and technological growth.The focus is still on the technology growth sectors with large room for repairing by valuation, includingnew energy、semiconductor、cloud computingand many more.
In addition, DongguansecuritiesIt is believed that with the accelerated introduction and implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, the effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will continue to show, and the economy will recover at a faster pace.It is expected that the market will continue to recover from shocks, focusing on changes in volume and energy and northward directionCash flowTowardsit is recommended to be moderately active in operation, focusing on finance, real estate, building materials,food and drinkpower equipment, TMT and other industries.
Macroscopically, WanliansecuritiesHe said that the economic data in April weakened significantly, significantly lower than the estimated value, but as the epidemic situation improved and the supply chain and production chain resumed, the market consensus expected that the second quarter would be the most stressful period for economic growth throughout the year.
Looking forward, before the economic data shows substantial improvement, macro-control tends to be relaxed, industrial support policies continue to increase, and profit expectations are more likely to bottom out. Inflation data in April showed that the prices of upstream raw materials were still at a high level, and the prices of downstream products had rebounded. Many ministries and commissions resolutely maintained stable prices of resource products, and measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply were successively introduced.At present, A-shares have entered a stage of frequent favorable policies and pessimistic earnings expectations bottoming out. With the restoration of low market confidence and the improvement of attractive valuations, funds have returned to the A-share market.。
Guohai SecuritiesIt is pointed out that with the gradual recovery of pessimistic expectations of the economy, structural opportunities in the market will further emerge.Although the reversal of pessimistic expectations is not achieved overnight, the strengthening of the policy provides a good start, the improvement of high-frequency economic data will be gradually verified, and the slope of the economic recovery determines whether the subsequent market can continue the oversold rebound and climb up.. The main line of A-share trading is expected to gradually shift from the direction of steady growth centered on expanding investment to the direction of resumption of work and production centered on stimulating consumption.
In terms of operation strategy, the agency further analyzed,Consumption is expected to become the style with the most relative benefits in the next stage, focusing on three segmentsFirst, the adjustment is relatively sufficient and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic.food and drinkcatering, tourism, hotels and other industries; the second is the key policy support and stimulationnew energyOptional consumer sectors such as cars and household appliances; third, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that benefit from rising product prices and inflation, as well as pharmaceuticals and biology with low valuations.
Shanxi Securitiesexpress,The shockwaves from the current conflict on the periphery are still reverberating around the worldwhich has the greatest impact on the global supply of energy and food. In the near future, it is recommended to focus on upstream resource sectors (coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, lithium, agriculture); growth sectors supported by high prosperity (Military industry、new energy); market adjustment in the logic of micro supply contraction (real estate, Internet), etc.
(Article Source:Eastern FortuneResearch center)