Interest rates up by 25 basis points in July even if the Governing Council of the ECB, as emerged from the monetary policy meeting on 9 June, expects a further increase in the reference rates in September.
The increase in the cost of money announced by the ECB will affect above all those who have a mortgage in progress. As the Corriere della Sera writes, especially those who have a variable mortgage in progress, assuming a loan started a year ago for 200 thousand euros over 20 years at 1% and that the Euribor increases by 25 cents from July, the installment it would go from 920 to 959 euros next month. With a second hike in September, the installment would rise to 998 euros.
No increase for those who have contracted a fixed rate mortgage while those who decide now to turn to a bank to buy a house, the choice is decidedly difficult. According to the simulations of Facile.it between now and next year, the monthly payment of an average variable mortgage could go up by about 120 euros compared to today. The portal took as a reference a loan of 120,000 euros to be repaid in 20 years and simulated the possible changes taking into account the so-called futures sull’Euriborwhich represent the expectation that operators have on the trend of the index over the next 5 years.
Today an average floating rate (TAN) available online for the simulated trade is equal to 0,85%with a monthly payment of 544 euro. According to the Euribor futures, by the end of the year the 3-month Euribor index will touch 1% (today it is at -0.30%) and this will raise the floating rate to about 2.20%, with a rheavier monthly fee of about 75 euros. In twelve months (a June 2023), the index could reach around 1.75%; this would raise the floating rate to 2.95% e the mute installment at 663 euros, that is almost 120 euros more than today. In December 2027, forecasts give the Euribor around 2.10%; in this case the rate would rise to 3.30% and the monthly payment to 684 euros, that is 140 euros more than today.