Home » Moutai fell below 1800 points, Shanxi Fenjiu once dropped a limit, Shuijingfang opened a limit, and the liquor sector is not fragrant? -Economic Observer Network-Professional financial news website

Moutai fell below 1800 points, Shanxi Fenjiu once dropped a limit, Shuijingfang opened a limit, and the liquor sector is not fragrant? -Economic Observer Network-Professional financial news website

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Economic Observer Network reporter Li Qin Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) stock price fell below 1,800 yuan for the first time this year.

On July 26, Kweichow Moutai dropped sharply at the opening, the stock price fell to 1806.61 yuan, and fell below the 1800 mark for the first time before the close in the morning. At the opening in the afternoon, Moutai continued to weaken, the lowest fell to 1780 yuan, and finally closed at 1804.11 yuan, a decrease of 5.05%.

In a long-term perspective, the turning point of this wave of decline in Kweichow Moutai originated at the end of May. After the end of May and the beginning of June, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price gradually fell from more than 2,200 yuan to 2,000 yuan. Although there was a rebound in the middle, it still maintained a downward trend and fell below 1,800 yuan for the first time today.

From the perspective of the liquor sector, Shuijingfang (600779.SH) immediately fell by the limit shortly after the opening, and its stock price closed at 129.18 yuan. Jiuguijiu (000799.SZ) was not spared, and it fell by the limit at the close of the morning and closed at 215.55 yuan. In addition, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) once encountered a lower limit, and eventually fell by 9.8%. Huangtai Wine (000995.SZ), Shede Wine (600702.SH), and Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) also fell by more than 8%. %.

In terms of the market, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and Science and Technology 50 fell across the board. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,500 points, a drop of 2.34%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14630.85, a drop of 2.65%; The declines of hit 50 were 2.84% and 0.42% respectively. Northbound funds sold a net of 12.802 billion throughout the day, and the medical beauty, liquor, food and beverage, medical and other sectors plummeted. Among them, the Wind Liquor Index closed down by 6.64%, which was only behind the medical beauty sector, and its main capital was net outflows. 6.486 billion.

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Is the liquor plate not fragrant anymore?

According to the fund’s second quarter report, some fund managers who like to have heavy storage in the liquor sector also adjusted their positions in this sector in the second quarter. Take star fund manager Liu Yanchun as an example. The Invesco Great Wall High-Performance Growth Mix under his management increased Kweichow Moutai’s shareholding in the first quarter of this year, but underwent a reduction in the subsequent second quarter. However, in the emerging growth mix of Invesco Great Wall under his management, Liu Yanchun has increased positions in Moutai, Guizhou.

And Zhang Kun, another fund manager who loves liquor and is well-known to investors, reduced Kweichow Moutai in the E Fund Blue Chip Collection, but increased the number of shares held in Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe. In E Fund’s small and medium-sized market mix, Zhang Kun not only reduced Kweichow Moutai, but also reduced Wuliangye’s shareholding by nearly half.

According to the statistics of Tianxiang Investment Consultants on the fund in the second quarter, Kweichow Moutai is still in the heart of fund companies, with 1333 funds all holding the stock, and the total market value of the fund holdings is 1,302,195,575,900 yuan, accounting for 5.04% of the outstanding shares. However, compared with the first quarter of 2021, the number of funds held, the total market value of the funds held, the proportion of shares in circulation, and the number of shares held have all decreased, and the market value has decreased by RMB 873,795,600.

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An industry insider admitted frankly that the collapse of liquor was caused by a variety of negative factors, such as an industry with high ROE and lack of government policy encouragement; coupled with the recent announcement of interim reports by wine companies, the performance of some companies did not meet expectations, leading to a decline in the market.

Take Shuijingfang, which has a lower limit today, as an example. According to its recently announced interim report, the company’s Q2 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 597 million yuan and -42 million yuan respectively, an increase of 691.5% and 52.1% year-on-year, respectively, and revenue slightly exceeded expected. However, its profits fell short of expectations.

TEDA Manulife Fund believes that it is currently changing from the era of “lying win” core assets to the era of “high growth” future core assets. Institutions sell core assets to adjust positions, and traditional leaders such as food and beverage and medicine have experienced significant declines. According to the semi-annual report of the 2021H1 Fund, the share of food and beverage holdings still accounts for 18.2% of the total stock market value, ranking first in the industry. However, whether it is in terms of the degree of national policy tilt, the evolution direction of the industry trend, or the market consensus, High-end manufacturing and technology are the main directions of the future. Therefore, institutions will continue to swap positions from traditional core assets to the high-prosperity track, and there will often be greater stock price fluctuations in the process of adjusting positions.

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Bohai Securities mentioned in a research report that since June, the overall food and beverage sector has begun to undergo significant adjustments. This performance is mainly related to the high base that the liquor industry will face in the mid-term. According to monthly data, liquor is still operating in the business cycle and the high-end liquor business cycle due to price control may be prolonged, while mass products will still face the triple challenge of cost, expense and high base.

Regarding the future, a fund manager who has invested heavily in Kweichow Moutai said that he is currently cautious about the liquor sector. A manager of a medium-sized public equity fund in Beijing believes that the current liquor sector is indeed overvalued. Therefore, the sector will not have new opportunities until the valuation becomes reasonable.

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