At the beginning of this year, Moutai required dealers to sell 80% of the liquor out of the box and the boxes to be recycled, which caused the price of Moutai’s whole box to continue to soar. Today, rumors that Moutai will be allowed to be sold in full boxes have spread widely recently, and the prices of many types of Moutai have plummeted across the board.
On October 30, according to the official account of “Liquor Prices Today”, the prices of many types of Moutai plummeted across the board.The original box price of 53 Degree Feitian (2021) has dropped from 3,750 yuan on October 26 to the latest 3,550 yuan. In 2021, San Fei has dropped to 2,700 yuan. The original box price and bulk fly price of other years also fell across the board in the past two trading days. It is worth mentioning that the boutique Moutai and Chinese Zodiac wines have fallen particularly sharply. Since September, the price of Moutai has fluctuated violently. There had been a rebound in the previous period, but most of the time it was mainly down. For this reason, many speculators in Kweichow Moutai complained on the Internet platform.
What caused the new round of Maotai’s slump? The main reason for the previous slump may be the selling by speculators and the cash out of some real estate developers. Recently, it may be related to a rumor. According to industry sources, rumors that Moutai will be allowed to be sold in full boxes have spread widely recently. At the beginning of this year, Moutai Company asked Moutai distributors to sell 80% of their liquor out of the box, and the boxes to be recycled, and the opening rate was increased to 100%. This has directly led to no FCL Moutai being sold in the market, and the price of FCL Moutai has continued to soar. Today, the plot has reversed.
So, will the sharp drop in the price of Moutai have an impact on the stock price of Moutai in Kweichow?
Moutai prices plummet across the board
In recent days, the prices of all types of Moutai have continued to plummet alternately.
The original box price of 53 Degree Feitian (2021) has dropped from 3,750 yuan on October 26 to 3,550 yuan on October 30. The retail price of Bulk Flight in 2021 has dropped to 2,700 yuan, and the market recovery price has dropped to 2,450 yuan. The original box prices and bulk prices of other years also fell across the board. It is worth mentioning that the fine Maotai, the Year of the Ox Zodiac, etc. have fallen particularly sharply. The Jing Mao fell 100 yuan in a single day, and the Ox Zodiac fell 200 yuan in a single day. The species once soared to more than 7000 yuan during the year and is now reported at 4,200 yuan. , A huge drop.
There was a sharp drop in Moutai in September. According to the data at the time, the price received by the wine merchant on the morning of September 18th was around 2950, and it fell to around 2850 in the afternoon. That wave of slump, basically stabilized at around 2800, but the price of the whole box did not loosen at that time. Moreover, there was some rebound after Sanfei.
The crash at the end of October was a bit unable to stop the car, and there was a full crash in the scattered flight and FCL. The decline on October 29 was even more tragic than on the 30th. According to the data from the Baijiu quotation platform “Fujijiang”, except for Jingmao, the decline was almost across the board that day. Among them, the original boxes of the Year of the Goat and the Year of the Horse respectively plummeted by 500 yuan, and the original boxes of the Year of the Monkey also plummeted by 150 yuan.
So, what exactly caused Moutai to intensify its decline? A recent rumor may be the main cause of the downfall. The rumor is that Moutai will be allowed to be sold in full boxes. At the beginning of this year, Kweichow Moutai introduced new regulations that require 80% of Moutai dealers’ wine to be sold out of the box and the boxes to be recycled. On January 21, Kweichow Moutai upgraded its opening rate to 100%, and stated that it would conduct random checks on dealers from time to time to recycle cartons. This directly leads to the fact that FCL Moutai is no longer sold on the market. Therefore, the price of FCL Moutai also continued to soar, and once far exceeded Sanfei. With the fermentation of the above-mentioned rumors, the situation immediately reversed, and the FCL price quickly fell.
Four major negatives
In fact, the price of Moutai on the market is still facing negative repression. From the current point of view, there are four main factors that affect the price trend:
One is that Moutai’s early gains were too large. According to data from institutions, from January 1st to October 21st when Moutai issued the unboxing order, the price of the 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai bulk bottle in 2021 has risen by 440 yuan, an increase of 15.6%. In 2021, the price of the original box of 53 degrees 500ml Feitian Moutai will increase by 1,040 yuan, an increase of 27.37%. In 2021, the price of the original box of 53 degrees 500ml boutique Moutai will increase by 220 yuan, an increase of 5%. The price of many scattered flights is around 3,000 yuan, and the whole box is close to 4,000 yuan. The price of any asset is too high, and it can’t stand the turmoil.
Second, the pressure to cash out is still relatively high. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of many industries such as real estate, finance, education, and games has dropped rapidly. Many big bosses have to sell massive inventories to the Maotai circle to cash out funds for various purposes. This has led to the hype of the entire “Maofan circle” Serious outflow of funds.
The third is the overall decline in consumption power. In the second half of this year, most industries are not very good, whether it is business consumption or personal consumption, there has been a decline. Judging from the Mid-Autumn Festival market, sales of its peers have dropped by nearly 50%, so except for out-of-print and scarce varieties, all Moutai circulating products have been sold. But there is another problem in it: old goods cannot be sold, and no one stocks new ones in large quantities. This further exacerbated the market panic.
The fourth is consumption tax. The 20th issue of “Seeking Truth” published on October 16, “Solidly Promote Common Prosperity” pointed out that it is necessary to rationally regulate excessively high incomes, improve the personal income tax system, and standardize capital income management. It is necessary to intensify the tax adjustment of the consumption link and study the expansion of the scope of consumption tax collection. The other property tax mentioned in the article is expected to have been fully released, but there is no news about the consumption tax, which also means that the bad news has not yet landed.
So, where will the price of Moutai fall? Some people in the industry believe that we can refer to the situation in 2012-2013. That year, the new Moutai announced the price of 600 yuan, and then it has risen to a maximum of 2,000 yuan, which only took less than a year; the old Maotai in the 1980s had the highest price of about 30,000 yuan. Later, due to the anti-corruption and plasticizer incidents, the price of old Maotai fell to only about 8,000 yuan, and no one cared about it, and the price of new Maotai also fell sharply. This kind of ups and downs lasted for about a year. Judging from the current situation, the decline and time may not be enough.
Does it affect the stock price
In the 2012-2013 market, the sharp drop in wine prices did affect the stock price. In that round, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price was cut in half. So, will this wave also be affected? Judging from the current situation, it is certain that it has not affected the performance of Kweichow Moutai, but its price increase expectations may bring some pressure. In addition, since the consumption tax has never landed, it will be more difficult to increase the stock price.
First of all, from the perspective of performance, according to the analysis of Galaxy Securities, the company’s total alcohol sales revenue in the first to third quarters of 2021 was 27.35, 21.775, and 25.522 billion yuan, an increase of 11.66, 11.55, and 9.85% year-on-year. Among them, Moutai achieved sales revenue of 245.92, 18.357, and 22.043 billion yuan, an increase of 10.66, 7.74, and 5.55% year-on-year; the series of wine achieved sales revenue of 26.43, 3.418, and 3.479 billion yuan, an increase of 21.86, 37.71, and 48.07% year-on-year. While the growth rate of Moutai’s revenue has slowed down slightly, the series of wines continued to accelerate. In the first three quarters, the series of wines accounted for 12.80% of the overall sales of alcoholic beverages, an increase of 2.37 PECTs compared to the same period in 20 years. It is particularly worth mentioning that in the third quarter, the company’s direct sales and wholesale agents achieved sales revenue of 5.181 billion and 20.341 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 57.93 and 1.94%, accounting for 20.30 and 79.70% of total distribution revenue; direct sales channels accounted for overall revenue. Compared with the 14.12% increase in the 2020 third quarter report, the rate of increase was 6.18 PCT. The market price has plummeted, but it will not affect the company’s performance.
Secondly, the main logic of Kweichow Moutai was to raise prices, but from the current situation, although the market still has expectations, the possibility of raising prices is still not large. One is that the market price continues to fall and is depressing the expectation; the other is that several sauces and wines have recently been increased in price, but it turned out that the market did not buy it, and they did not face it; the third is that Maotai is raising prices. Although things may have ideas, they are also subject to other non-market factors in the short term.
Third, from the perspective of consumption tax, in September 2019, the State Council issued the “Reform and Promotion Plan for Adjusting the Division of Central and Local Revenues after Implementing Larger Tax Cuts and Fees”, proposing to “relocate the collection of consumption tax and steadily decentralize it.” The consumption tax was raised in the “Solidly Promoting Common Prosperity” published by the “Seeking Truth” magazine on October 16. Since the bad news has not landed, although the overall performance of the liquor sector in the third quarter report is good, it has not gone out of the trending market, and individual stocks have even seen positive results.
Article Author: Shi Qian, Source: Brokerage China, Original Title: “Mao Fan” Collapsed! Moutai prices plummeted across the board, a rumor triggered a wave of selling? How do the four big bears affect Maotai’s share price? When can you buy the bottom? 》
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