The rumble of rumors was so intense that it also brought politics to the field. On the other hand, in the dossier Mps-UniCredit, the direction is in the hands of the Draghi government.
Among the various rumors, the one signed by Bloomberg News, which made many of the insiders and non-professionals stand on end: to be precise, the indiscretion according to which the Treasury (which holds 64.2% of the Sienese bank ) would be considering the option of launching a capital increase on Monte dei Paschi up to 3 billion euros to strengthen its capital solidity, thus satisfying UniCredit’s request to make the acquisition neutral for its capital ratios.
It was the same MPS who took the field last Friday, denying the rumors and at the same time informing the markets on the continuation of due diligence activities by UniCredit.
Mps: UniCredit accelerates due diligence
In this regard, Il Giornale reports that “Unicredit accelerates due diligence for the rescue of Monte Paschi and as early as next week, the last of August, he aims to get the first results from the team that is analyzing the balance sheets and assets of the Sienese bank. After the exclusive negotiation announced on July 29th, the institute headed by the CEO Andrea Orcel had access to the data room – in which previously there was only the US Apollo fund – and started an analysis to identify the potential risks deriving from the proposed acquisition of a large part of Rocca Salimbeni’s assets “
In the meantime Luigi Pedone of Equita commented in today’s note from the Milanese SIM the denial of Mps on the Monstre capital increase:
“With regard to press rumors relating to the size of the capital strengthening, Mps indicated, upon Consob request, that these are “indiscretions which are not reflected in any initiatives launched by the Bank”.
Pedone also recalled that “in conjunction with the results of the first half of 2021, Mps confirmed that it had not revised the capital plan based on the outcome of the stress test and that capital strengthening remains a subordinate solution to the pursuit of the so-called ‘structural solution’ with UniCredit “. The analyst concluded as follows: “Considering the due diligence still in progress and the consequent uncertainty relating to the definition of the scope of interest by UniCredit, we still believe that the assumptions relating to the extent of the capital increase on Mps and how this may eventually affect UniCredit’s share base “.
Mps: the risk of losing the historic brand
Uncertainty remains as to what will happen to the Mps brand, after the publication of the article in Il Messaggero. “Stop the ECB from the autonomous use of the Mps brand, it will only be able to live alongside Unicredit”.
An article by Angelo de Mattia in the newspaper “Il Tempo” with an unequivocal title: “Europe leave Italy alone, MPS must keep the brand”.
“According to unconfirmed news – writes De Mattia – but, after a few days, not even denied, the EU Commission would prohibit the survival of the brand. I do not know well on what basis, above all legal, the prohibition is based. Perhaps Brussels sees in the aforementioned maintenance a violation of the Directive on ‘bail-in’ and of the rules on ‘burden sharing’, perhaps it believes there is a contrast with the rules on the prohibition of state aid ”. But, among other things, Mattia recalled that “the maintenance of the Institute’s trademark was also indicated as a constraint in the exposition of the Minister of the Economy, Daniele Franco, on the occasion of the recent hearing in the parliamentary commissions”.
He also makes his voice heard the local coordination of Forza Italia, as reported by the Siena News website. Thus we read in the press release:
“Europe through the ECB affirms that the Mps brand should not be maintained; some unfortunate analyst goes so far as to attribute the blame for the disasters perpetrated on our Bank to the employees ”. On the Democratic Party: “There are too many conflicts of interest that arise in relation to the position of the Democratic Party.” Under attack the national secretary of the dem: “In this context with what courage Letta wanders (fortunately sporadically) around the territory of our province for the supplementary campaign. We strongly recall that he represents that political party that has the historical and material responsibility for the point to which our Bank has been brought ”.
Mps: the real original sin is political interference
Regarding MPS and the various back and forth coming from the world of politics, the words of Sandro Trento, economist, professor at the University of Trento and member of Base Italia, interviewed by Formiche.net, who practically emphasizes how Mps is the victim of that original sin that bears the name of politics.
“The industrial solution that leads to Unicredit is in all likelihood the only possible way – explains Trento – On the other hand, the entry of the State into the bank has certainly not helped, even if the problems of Mps come from before, when politics set foot in the bank“.
On the bank’s numbers, the teacher agrees with the reporter’s assertion Gianluca Zapponini, who interviewed him, and who found that Siena’s numbers are frightening.
“Exactly – said Trento – If we look at the latest financial statements, we can easily see how the bank has gone downhill over the years. With the red of 1.6 billion in 2020, the losses accumulated by MPS in the last decade amounted to approximately 23.5 billion euros. But that’s not all … The relationship between costs and revenues has exploded in recent years, without considering that Mps has closed in the red 8 of the last 10 years, marked by the overvalued acquisition of Antonveneta, the derivatives scandal and the explosion of non-performing loans . Then came the nationalization, which cost 5.4 billion ”.
The lesson to be learned from this disaster? Sandro Trento has no doubts: “politics should try to keep away from banks, because it often causes trouble and problems. And Siena proves it ”.