Home » MPS, the Mef at the crossroads between new transfer and third pole

MPS, the Mef at the crossroads between new transfer and third pole

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MPS, the Mef at the crossroads between new transfer and third pole

On one side, the title that continues its run galvanized by the 2023 results and the return to the dividend. On the other hand, the executive’s desire to favor birth of the third banking hub with MPS as protagonist. In the middle, the government’s commitment to collect 20 billion from privatizations in the next three years. No decision has yet been taken, explain the sources interviewed, but the hypothesis of a new tranche of shares on the market is becoming more likely in the short term. While the expected decline in interest rates favors, from a medium-term perspective, the desired birth of MPS aggregation.

The title race continues

Since November 21st, the first day of trading after the sale of 20% of the capital by the Treasury, Monte dei Paschi shares rose by more than 28%. Yesterday the Sienese bank was once again the protagonist in Piazza Affari, with a +2.85%, closing at 3.65 euros. An excellent opportunity for the Treasury to further reduce participation. The next February 20th the lockup established at the time of the accelerated bookbuilding in November expires. It could go on the market a further 14%, leaving the Mef with a blocking threshold of 30% which would protect the institution from operations that are hostile or in any case not welcome by the government. Assuming a 6% discount on the price of the stock, the same as the sale on November 20th, from the 14% sale the MEF would collect over 600 million euros. Just under the 700 million collected by the Mef with the sale of 20% in November. An excellent opportunity: it is no coincidence that rumors of an imminent new sale operation by the Treasury have resurfaced on the market.

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The drop in rates and the Banco Bpm hypothesis

On the other hand, the third pole hypothesis is struggling to take off. The banks involved, from Banco Bpm to Bper Banca, they don’t miss an opportunity to deny any interest. Last Monday it was the turn of Flavia Mazzarella, president of Bper, who reiterated that he has no interest in a transaction with Siena as the bank is engaged in internal consolidation. The expected decline in interest rates, reducing the mass of profits achieved in 2023 by Italian banks, and the slowdown in the economy with the consequent possible increase in bad debts could lend a hand to the Mef. And convince one of the two institutes to move ahead and carry out the merger with MPS. The main suspect, according to what has been reconstructed, is Bpm Bank. The institute led by Giuseppe Castagnawho has repeatedly denied any interest, he would return to look towards Siena, explains one of the sources interviewed, even if no formal steps have yet been taken. But this scenario, if it comes to fruition, could become a reality not before the end of the year. For this reason, the sources interviewed explain, it is not excluded that the Mef take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself on the market. And you return to the market with a new tranche, even without waiting for the dividend to be collected.

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