Mps-UniCredit: the hot dossier remains for the moment still there, on the desk of Mario Draghi and the number one of the Treasury Daniele Franco.
We will have to wait a little longer to understand what will end the ongoing negotiations between the Mef, the majority shareholder of Monte dei Paschi with a 64% stake, and UniCredit by Andrea Orcel.
The negotiations continue in a political context that has seen the secretary of the PD Enrico Letta win the by-election in Siena: according to some rumors this factor could represent a further assist for the exclusive negotiations of Unicredit with the Treasury to evaluate the purchase of an important portion of Banca MPS.
Until October 18, the day of the ballots – which see among the largest cities called to vote Rome, Trieste, Turin – however, it is difficult for an announcement to arrive deciding the outcome of the negotiations between the two banks.
The market believes in the Mps-UniCredit deal. Rumor about the brand
In the sessions immediately following the outcome of the supplementary sessions in Siena, the market bet on the Mps-UniCredit deal, causing the prices, in particular, of the UniCredit stock.
The prices of Piazza Gae Aulenti have certainly benefited from the new era with a license plate Andrea Orcel so much so that, from the 7.42 euros of last January 25, the day before the spread of rumors of the choice of Orcel as the new CEO of the bank, the UCG stock has risen to the area of 11.90 euros, at their highest since February 2020 and with a balance from the beginning of the year of over + 53%. The trend has made Piazza Gae Aulenti the queen of Piazza Affari.
In the talks between Monte and UniCredit there are still some knots to be resolved: Mps has certainly taken another step forward, however, to solve some of its long-standing problems. A statement from the last few hours confirmed that the agreement with the Mps Foundation was in fact finalized: this is the “agreement already previously communicated in its essential lines – for the definition of all disputes arising between the parties”, as a result of which, the Foundation “will obtain, among other things, the payment of 150 million euros and commitments on the enhancement of the Bank’s artistic heritage and on the destination of the Rocca Salimbeni property, on which it will insist a pre-emption in favor of the Foundation“.
Mps-UniCredit: die cast after Siena vote. The FT speaks of an end near for Santa Monte. But we go back to talking about the Isaac plan
The news was reported by the Equita SIM note, which also referred to the latest rumors leaked by the La Stampa newspaper:
“Mps has communicated the completion of the settlement agreement with Monte dei Paschi di Siena Foundation , with regard to the out-of-court requests relating to the acquisition of Banca Antonveneta and the capital increases of 2011 and 2014-2015 – we read in the note from the Milanese SIM, which continued underlining that, “according to what reported by ‘La Stampa’ they would be resumed the talks between UniCredit and the MEF for the definition of the perimeter of interest of Monte dei Paschi “. And that “in detail, the article (from La Stampa) again reports the possibility that Mediocredito Centrale (MCC) may take over not only the branches in the South of MPS (Puglia and Sicily), but also the brand and all subsidiaries excluded from UniCredit’s interest (MPS Capital Services, Factoring and Leasing). If this hypothesis were confirmed, it would represent a further step towards reaching an agreement between UniCredit and the Mef for a structural solution on Mps ”.
La Stampa remembers how Mediocredito Centrale, which is a public bank, and that the Popolare di Bari has already taken over had in reality “already denied its interest in the brand”. But probably the same will be forced to review its position, both for the stakes that have been set by UniCredit, and in line with what he said in August by the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco, namely that “safeguarding employment and the brand, in addition to saving, these are the priorities of the Government ”. La Stampa also writes that “on the other hand, Enrico Letta has also committed himself to the brand, newly elected to the Chamber of the Siena college. The secretary of the Democratic Party said he was ready to block the agreement for the sale of MPS already in the Council of Ministers, if a series of conditions were not met, including the permanence of the brand “.
UniCredit, a flurry of buy from analysts: the balance sheet on 27 October
UniCredit’s prices continue to rise, with the stock which, in today’s session, was confirmed in the early stages as one of the best in the Ftse Mib index (10.40 Italian time), and then halved its earnings towards mid-day.
Buyers prevail among analysts, accounting for 50% of the total (six months ago before the 1st quarter accounts they were only 30%); 42.9% say Hold while 7.1% say Sell. The average target price is € 12.1, that is 4 per cent above the levels at which the stock is currently traveling.
The most optimistic about Unicredit are the analysts of Mediobanca Securities with a target price of € 15.7, approximately + 34% compared to current values.
They don’t even joke Deutsche Bank analysts which, in the last few hours, have awarded Piazza Gae Aulenti with an upgrade on the rating, from “hold” to “buy”, simultaneously raising the target price from 10.6 to 15 euros.
JP Morgan confirmed the neutral opinion on the stock, with tp at 12 euros, while yesterday Jefferies reaffirmed the buy rating, with target price also left unchanged at 13.4 euros.
After the vote in Siena, UBS also issued a note reiterating the buy e valuation raising the target price to € 14.45, from the previous 13.55.
Meanwhile, UniCredit’s financial statements are approaching: the date has been set until next October 27th and among other things, according to recent press rumors, Orcel’s intention would be to solve the MPS problem before that day.
Positive surprises from the quarterly report (for the third quarter) are expected by Equita analysts, which raised the estimates for the whole of 2021 by 7%. In a recent call held by Unicredit with analysts, the top management said it was very confident in reiterating the guidance of an underlying net profit of over 3 billion, total revenues for approximately 17.1 billion, operating costs substantially in line with the level of 2019 (9.9 billion).