January 6, 2022,Muyuan sharesRelease of the pig sales briefing for December 2021.According to the briefing, December 2021Muyuan sharesThe sales volume of live pigs was 5.025 million (including 37,000 piglets), and the sales revenue was 7.765 billion yuan. So far, throughout 2021,Muyuan sharesA total of 40.263 million pigs were sold, including 36.887 million commercial pigs, 3.095 million piglets, and 281,000 breeding pigs. The total sales revenue was about 75.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%.
In terms of the sales price that the market focuses on, the briefing shows that in December 2021, the average sales price of Muyuan’s commercial pigs showed a fluctuating downward trend, with an average price of 14.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.58% from November 2021.
It is worth noting that on December 7, 2021, Muyuan shares disclosed on the investor interaction platform that the complete cost of the company’s commodity pigs has dropped to about 14.7 yuan/kg.
Institutions have mixed views on the trend of pig prices
According to the 2021 semi-annual report, during the reporting period, Muyuan’s pigs achieved sales revenue of 39.731 billion yuan, accounting for 95.65% of total revenue, and sales gross profit of approximately 13.628 billion yuan, accounting for 99.93% of total gross profit.The rise and fall of live pig prices affect Muyuan sharesPerformanceHas a vital impact.
Regarding the trend of live pig prices this year, institutions currently have different opinions.
Guoxin Futures pointed out that the overall tone of the domestic hog market is still in excess, but given that the stock of reproductive sows has begun to decline, it means that domestic hogs have also entered a stage of capacity reduction. According to the cycle of pig reproduction and growth, the cyclical bottoming of pig prices in May 2022 is very likely. This year, the probability is that the pig price will turn from bear to bull.
Tianfeng SecuritiesIt also stated that, from the perspective of the extent of sales in November, even in the case of such a high increase in pig prices from mid-to-late October to November, the extent of sales can still reach 1.2%, showing that the trend of internal sales has been set. . In the medium to long term, the bottom of the pig price has been found and it is expected to reverse in the middle of this year.
andHuaan SecuritiesThe analysis said that with the clearing of inefficient sows, the efficiency of breeding pigs has continued to improve, and the huge amount of pork imports needs to be digested for two consecutive years. If there is no serious epidemic in the live pig industry, pig prices will continue to be sluggish in 2022, and the industry is still in the process of clearing production capacity. stage.
Yan Sikai, partner of Zhengzhou Siyuxing Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd.SecuritiesA reporter from the Daily said: “The stock of reproductive sows is a key indicator that determines the turning point of the pig cycle. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the domestic balance of pork production is about 55 million tons, and the corresponding normal stock of reproductive sows is 41 million heads. According to data, the domestic stock of reproductive sows in November was 42.96 million heads, which was 4.8% higher than the equilibrium level.”
“After the stock of reproductive sows reached a high point in June 2021, it fell to 42.96 million by November 2021, an average monthly decrease of 1.17%. If we follow this rate, and take into account the current low level of live pig prices, In the middle of this year, the stock of reproductive mothers will reach a balanced state, and the price of pigs is expected to reverse.” Yan Sikai said.
A variety of measures to protect the fundamentals
As the price of live pigs fluctuates sharply, Muyuan has adopted various measures to protect the fundamentals.
On the evening of December 6, 2021, Muyuan Co., Ltd. announced the launch of commodity futures hedging businessannouncement。
According to the announcement, in order to avoid the adverse impact of the large fluctuations in feed raw material prices and live pig prices on the company’s operations, the company and its subsidiaries intend to hedge corn, soybean meal, live pig and other commodity futures with their own funds of no more than 800 million yuan. Business, effectively manage the risk of large price fluctuations.
On January 3, 2022, Muyuan shares andShuanghui DevelopmentShuangshuang issued an announcement stating that the two parties signed the “Shuanghui Muyuan Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement” on January 1, 2022 in Luohe City, Henan Province.
According to the content of the agreement,Shuanghui DevelopmentOpen up a green channel, implement 24 hours a day, priority purchase of Muyuan shares direct supply of live pigs, the two parties agree on supply, prices, transportation methods, etc., to achieve point-to-point direct supply. When the price of live pigs is low,Shuanghui DevelopmentOn the basis of insisting on being market-oriented, we can moderately increase the procurement of live pigs from Muyuan.
In terms of production cost control, the reporter learned that Muyuan shares have the advantage of an integrated industrial chain. The company’s “full self-support, full chain, and intelligent” business model can ensure the knowledge and control of each production link, and has advantages in food safety, epidemic prevention and control, environmental protection operation, cost control, quality control, and standardized management.
Cao Yanyan of Gongjin Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. said: “Compared with the’company plus farmers’ of other pig companies, the obvious feature of Muyuan’s’self-reproduction and self-raising’ model is that the cost is controllable. It is even more advantageous when there is force majeure.”
Tibet Fairview Commodity ExchangeAnalystZhao Hui also believes: “Because Muyuan shares its business model of’full self-support, full chain, and intelligence’, it is relatively superior in cost control compared to the industry, especially in terms of feed costs and piglet costs, which account for the bulk of the cost. This gives Muyuan shares Greater profit margins.”
In addition, the reporter noted that in addition to actively guaranteeing the live pig business, Muyuan is also vigorously deploying the slaughter business. At present, 2 live pig slaughter plants have officially put into operation, and 4 slaughter plants have entered the trial operation stage. It is expected that the slaughter capacity will be completed and put into operation before the Spring Festival. It will reach 20 million heads.
Muyuan said that the development of slaughter business can help the company achieve cross-regional sales. At the same time, the company’s slaughter business can also achieve better economic benefits through measures such as improving capacity utilization, opening up sales channels, optimizing production efficiency, and reducing average slaughter costs.
(Article Source:SecuritiesDaily News)
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